Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Bonds



"In an inflationary world, stocks and bonds move in opposite directions of one another. In theory, if inflation is rising, stock prices can absorb some inflation through higher nominal corporate revenues while higher inflation expectations drive nominal bond prices lower as the purchasing power of future coupon payments declines. When deflation is the primary concern, stocks and bond yields tend to move in the same direction as we have seen over the past several years."  Value Walk
My chart of the ZB, ZN and YM - Periods of in tandem and inverse behaviour.




20160920 - Taking a fly over to see where the 30 year is sitting...


30 Year Bonds in balance at it’s 1 year POC


3 Year View - 30 year bonds are climbing, much like the equities inferring we have been in a deflationary period...


30 year bonds - We are way above balance and trending higher...