Friday, May 30, 2025
Visualizing the Strategy
To illustrate the portfolio allocation shift for crisis resilience, here’s a chart comparing your current allocation (based on prior discussions) to the proposed “Paranoid Survive” mix, emphasizing defensive sectors, cash, and hedges.
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Notes
Dimon’s and Buffett’s warnings create a compelling case for your “Paranoid Survive” approach, reinforcing your focus on cash reserves, defensive holdings, and diversified income sources. The updated strategy leverages your existing holdings (PG, JNJ, OGE) and aligns with your Buffett-inspired criteria, while addressing Dimon’s specific risks (bond market, tariffs, deficits). The chart visualizes the shift toward resilience, increasing cash and defensive allocations while reducing bond exposure. If you want to tweak the allocation percentages, explore specific sectors (e.g., utilities for AI-energy growth), or analyze a particular holding’s intrinsic value, let me know!
Tuesday, May 27, 2025
2025-05-27 Grok Summary
Dividend Yield Ranking
Below is the ranking of your dividend-paying holdings, ordered from highest to lowest yield, with portfolio weights and annual income based on a $1M portfolio.
T (AT&T): 5.2% yield, $33,800 (3.38%), $1,758.40/year
VYMI (Vanguard Intl High Div Yield): 4.5% yield, $4,200 (0.42%), $189.00/year
VMFXX (Vanguard Federal Money Market): 4.3% yield, $9,000 (0.90%), $387.00/year
VCRB (Vanguard Core Bond ETF): 4.2% yield, $78,900 (7.89%), $3,313.80/year
VBIL (Vanguard Interm-Term Bond): 4.1% yield, $81,900 (8.19%), $3,357.90/year
SWVXX (Schwab Value Advantage Money): 4.0% yield, $47,600 (4.76%), $1,904.00/year
SCHD (Schwab US Dividend Equity): 3.5% yield, $5,600 (0.56%), $196.00/year
VWOB (Vanguard Emerg Mkts Govt Bond): 3.4% yield, $5,100 (0.51%), $173.40/year
VCLT (Vanguard Long-Term Corp Bond): 3.3% yield, $5,900 (0.59%), $194.70/year
XOM (ExxonMobil): 3.2% yield, $5,700 (0.57%), $182.40/year
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson): 3.1% yield, $7,900 (0.79%), $244.90/year
LMT (Lockheed Martin, ESOP + Stock): 2.8% yield, $149,200 (14.92%), $4,177.60/year
VCIT (Vanguard Interm-Term Corp Bond): 2.8% yield, $3,900 (0.39%), $109.20/year
MCD (McDonald’s): 2.7% yield, $5,100 (0.51%), $137.70/year
VZ (Verizon): 2.6% yield, $1,200 (0.12%), $31.20/year
WMT (Walmart): 2.1% yield, $9,200 (0.92%), $193.20/year
MTSUY (Mitsubishi): 2.0% yield, $4,700 (0.47%), $94.00/year
SSUMY (Sumitomo): 2.0% yield, $4,600 (0.46%), $92.00/year
GE (GE Aerospace): 1.8% yield, $11,500 (1.15%), $207.00/year
BAC (Bank of America): 1.7% yield, $4,000 (0.40%), $68.00/year
OGE (OGE Energy): 1.6% yield, $2,300 (0.23%), $36.80/year
PFE (Pfizer): 1.5% yield, $3,600 (0.36%), $54.00/year
BA (Boeing): 1.0% yield, $6,700 (0.67%), $67.00/year
CCJ (Cameco): 0.8% yield, $3,400 (0.34%), $27.20/year
GEHC (GE HealthCare): 0.5% yield, $1,200 (0.12%), $6.00/year
GEV (GE Vernova): 0.0% yield, $5,100 (0.51%), $0.00/year
WAB (Wabtec): 0.0% yield, $300 (0.03%), $0.00/year
Cumulative Income Forecast
Current Annual Income: $16,001.40 (1.60% of $1M).
5-Year Forecast:
Assumptions: 3% annual yield growth (inflation-aligned), reinvested dividends, stable portfolio weights.
Year 1: $16,001.40
Year 2: $16,481.44 (+3%)
Year 3: $16,975.88
Year 4: $17,485.16
Year 5: $18,009.71
Total 5-Year Income: $84,953.59 (8.50% of $1M).
Optimization Strategy:
Reallocate Small/Mid-Cap ($44,000): Shift to VXUS (3.0% yield, ~40% BRICS exposure) to boost globalization and income. Adds ~$1,320/year initially, growing to $1,524/year by Year 5.
Increase High-Yield Holdings: Add $10,000 to VYMI (4.5% yield, $450/year) and $10,000 to SCHD (3.5% yield, $350/year) by reducing GE ($11,500, 1.8% yield, overvalued) and BA ($6,700, 1.0% yield, tariff risk). Boosts annual income by ~$800 initially.
Maintain LMT and T: LMT ($4,177.60/year) and T ($1,758.40/year) are top income drivers. Hold for stability.
Monitor Rate Sensitivity: Bonds (VCRB, VBIL) yield 4.1-4.2% but face losses if Fed raises rates in June 2025. Limit additions until rate clarity.
Projected Income Impact: Reallocating $44,000 to VXUS and $20,000 to VYMI/SCHD increases Year 1 income to ~$18,121.40 (+13.2%), reaching $21,340.25 by Year 5 (total $99,305 over 5 years, 9.93% of $1M).
Recommendations
Intrinsic Value Actions:
Sell GE ($11,500), GEV ($5,100), MCD ($5,100), and WAB ($300) due to overvaluation (intrinsic values 40-61% below prices).
Hold GEHC ($1,200) for BRICS healthcare growth, despite slight overvaluation.
Income Optimization:
Reallocate $44,000 from Small/Mid-Cap to VXUS for globalization and 3.0% yield.
Shift $17,500 from GE and BA to VYMI ($10,000) and SCHD ($7,500) for higher yields (4.5%, 3.5%).
Maintain LMT ($149,200, 2.8%), T ($33,800, 5.2%), and JNJ ($7,900, 3.1%) for income stability.
Monitor Events:
BRICS Summit (July 2025): Could boost VYMI, VWOB, and CCJ via trade/energy policies.
Fed Rate Decision (June 2025): Impacts VCRB, VBIL; favor equities if rates rise.
U.S.-China Tariff Talks (July 2025): Watch for risks to INTC, BA, and GE.
Portfolio Impact:
Current Globalization Exposure: 27.15% ($271,500). Adding $44,000 VXUS raises it to 31.55% ($315,500), aligning with BRICS growth (41.4% global GDP).
Income Boost: +$2,120/year initially, +$2,515/year by Year 5.
Please report back with your chosen global index (e.g., VXUS, EEM) for a tailored analysis. Let me know if you want further calculations (e.g., for other holdings) or specific fund comparisons. Thank you for the update!
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