2025-06-06 Rebaseline

2025-06-06 Rebaseline Hello, Grok... We have recently discussed security and I have switched running Grok.Com from Chrome to Edge. During a review of the security and history settings, we noticed an absence of missing discussions. Per your recommendation, I am submitting this prompt to reset our discussion baseline. I am posting a recent refresh list of holdings. Let's continue with your major class groupings and normalize it to a $1M portfolio. We have established several watch areas to consider the portfolio's present day robustness. We have adopted a Paranoid Survival Approach and aware of the Buffet Intrinsic Value consideration, the Jamie Dimon choppy seas forecast, Citibank's CEO Finch discussions of globalization taking place, the BRICS movement and effects, Tariff negotiations, the underlying health of the US economy including inflation, debt, trade deficits, the retail buyers strong involvement in the recent market correction nearing the 100 Month Moving Average, the possibilities of a correction to near the 200 Month Moving average (perhaps the "hair curling" event Buffet recently mentions, and taking advantage of the ZBT signal trigger with allocations to "growth sleeve". We also discussed the dicipline to buy when people are panicking and the dicipline to sell and take profits. Lets refresh where we are at please. Thank You! : VMFXX 0.90% VIGAX 4.93% VBIL 8.17% VCLT 0.59% VCRB 7.88% VWOB 0.99% VYMI 0.43% VTI 4.01% BAC 0.39% PLTR 1.18% BA 0.67% FMFXX 0.09% TEMWX 2.70% LMIMCO Target Date Fund-2025 13.07% LMIMCO ESOP 10.70% LMIMCO Large Cap Index 5.76% LMIMCO Small Mid Cap Index 1.91% LMIMCO Company Stock 4.59% LMIMCO Global Equities Fund 2.30% GE 0.82% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.41% MCD 0.50% WAB 0.03% USAIX 2.97% USTEX 1.15% SWVXX 4.59% VCIT 0.39% SCHD 0.55% AAPL 0.67% CCJ 0.39% F 0.08% INTC 1.15% JNJ 0.81% MSFT 7.27% OGE 0.23% PFE 0.37% MTSUY 0.48% SSUMY 0.46% T 1.67% TSLA 1.15% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.91% XOM 0.53%

2025-06-02 Foxhole

8-10% Market Correction S&P 500 < 5,000 (100-month MA), RSI > 70, VIX > 20, retail sell-off, tariff escalation. 60% by Q3 2025 (retail volatility, tariffs). High (70.92% equities: MSFT $74,900, PLTR $12,200, VTI $41,300). Fixed Income (23.33%, VBIL $84,200), Money Market (5.75%, SWVXX $47,300), defensive stocks (12%, JNJ, WMT). Sell PLTR/TSLA if RSI > 70; boost SWVXX to 12% ($120,000) for ZBT buys (VYM, GLD). Monitor S&P at 5,000. 20% Correction (Buffett’s “Hair-Curling Event”) S&P 500 < 4,000 (200-month MA), VIX > 30, stagflation, trade war. 30% by Q1 2026 (needs major catalyst). High (70.92% equities, LMIMCO funds $364,700). Same as above, but defensive 12% below 35-45% target. Increase JNJ/WMT/OGE to 35% ($350,000); hold cash for ZBT at 4,000. Tariff Escalation Failed 90-day pause (July 8, 2025), China’s 125% tariffs resume, USMCA talks stall. 50% by Q4 2025 (mixed USMCA/China progress). Moderate (BA $6,900, INTC $11,900 tariff-sensitive). VWOB ($10,200), VYMI ($4,400) hedge trade risks; SWVXX for volatility. Cap BA/INTC at 10% ($100,000); boost VEU/VWOB to 15% ($150,000). Track @ReutersBiz on X. Full Trade War Global retaliation (EU $107B, China 145%), WTO sanctions. Guest’s Question: Success needs clear goals (2% GDP deficit), targeted 5-10% tariffs, diplomacy, fiscal discipline ($300B to debt). 25% by 2026 (diplomacy ongoing). Moderate (VTI $41,300, MSFT $74,900 margins). Same as above, but international 4% vs. 15-20% target. Same as above; monitor USMCA/China talks. Inflation > 3.5% Tariff-driven PCE rise (1-1.5%), CPI > 3.5%, commodity spikes (soybean meal +2%). 55% by Q4 2025 (tariff lag). Moderate (VCLT $6,100 yield risk, equities P/E compression). SWVXX (4.8% yield), OGE ($2,400, AI-energy). Shift VCLT to BSV; boost OGE/WMT to 35%. Monitor @BLS_gov on X. Stagflation Recession + CPI > 3.5%, Dimon’s 0% earnings growth. 20% by Q2 2026 (needs contraction). Moderate (equities 70.92%). Defensive stocks (12%), fixed income (23.33%). Same as above. Debt Crisis (Yield Spike/Downgrade) Debt/GDP > 130%, yields > 5% (4.5% now), Fitch/Moody’s downgrade. 40% (yields) / 15% (downgrade) by Q1 2026. High (fixed income, equities; VWOB $10,200 EM risk). SWVXX, defensive stocks; low BRICS hedge (4%). Boost VWOB/VEU to 15%; monitor DXY < 100. BRICS De-Dollarization DXY < 100 (now 110), BRICS non-USD trade grows. 35% (moderate) / 10% (significant) by 2026. Low (VWOB $10,200, VTI $41,300 dollar risk). VWOB, VYMI, MTSUY, SSUMY (4%). Add VEU to 5% ($50,000); track @BRICSinfo on X. ZBT Signal RSI < 30, VIX > 20, S&P drop 8-10%. “House money” sell at RSI > 70. 65% by Q3 2025 (VIX at 18). Moderate (70.92% equities pre-ZBT). SWVXX, JNJ/WMT/OGE for buys (VYM, GLD). Define ZBT (RSI < 30, VIX > 20); increase SWVXX to 12%. Visual: Event Likelihood vs. Portfolio Exposure Here’s a bar chart for your advisor meeting, showing event likelihoods and exposure levels, optimized for Chrome/Win11 (view on grok.com’s Canvas panel, JavaScript enabled). Grok can make mistakes. Always check original sources. Download Visual Description: Bar chart with green bars (likelihood, %) and red bars (exposure, 1=low, 3=high) for nine events. ZBT signal (65%) and 8-10% correction (60%) are most likely; corrections and debt crisis have high exposure (3). Urges defensive/cash increases. Platform Note: If the chart renders as code, refresh grok.com or try X app (v10.2.3+). I’ll provide a static image next week if issues persist. Portfolio Risk/Protection Summary Risks: High equity exposure (70.92%) to corrections (60%) and debt crisis (40%). Tariff-sensitive BA ($6,900), INTC ($11,900) and low international allocation (4% vs. 15-20%) increase trade/BRICS risks. VCLT ($6,100) vulnerable to yields > 5%. Protection: Fixed income (23.33%, VBIL, VCRB) and cash (5.75%, SWVXX) provide stability. Defensive stocks (JNJ, WMT, OGE: 12%) below 35-45% target. VWOB ($10,200), VYMI ($4,400) hedge tariffs/BRICS. SWVXX enables ZBT buys (VYM, GLD up 1.5%). Recommendations: Defensive Core (35%): Sell $50,000 of MSFT ($74,900), PLTR ($12,200), TSLA ($11,900) if RSI > 70; boost JNJ/WMT/OGE to $350,000. Cash Buffer (12%): Increase SWVXX to $120,000 for ZBT buys. International (15%): Add VEU ($50,000), VWOB ($20,000) for BRICS/de-dollarization hedge. Tariff Risk: Cap BA/INTC at 10% ($100,000); monitor USMCA/China talks on X (@ReutersBiz). Triggers: Watch S&P at 5,000, VIX > 20, DXY < 100, CPI > 3.5%. Advisor Points: Emphasize ZBT readiness, tariff negotiation alignment (success needs targeted tariffs, diplomacy, fiscal discipline), and gaps in defensive/international allocations. Use chart to highlight high-likelihood events (ZBT, correction). Notes Tariff Negotiation: Your portfolio’s cash and defensive tilt align with negotiation volatility, but boosting VEU/VWOB strengthens resilience if talks fail (50% escalation risk). Past Insights: Your “house money” strategy (sell at RSI > 70) and focus on stable income (55% stability goal) inform ZBT and defensive actions. Follow-Up: Share advisor feedback, ZBT parameters (e.g., RSI thresholds), or holdings for deeper analysis. I’ll ensure visuals work next time. Sorry for the glitches—thanks for sticking with me! Let me know if you need more details or a demo topic for your advisor. Good luck with the meeting! 16s

2025-06-02 Portfolio

Good Morning, Grok...I am posting a refresh list of holdings. Let's continue with your major class groupings and normalize it to a $1M portfolio. We have established several watch areas to consider the portfolio's present day robustness. We have adopted a Paranoid Survival Approach and aware of the Buffet Intrinsic Value consideration, the Jamie Dimon choppy seas forecast, Citibank's CEO Finch discussions of globalization taking place, the BRICS movement and effects, Tariff negotiations, the underlying health of the US economy including inflation, debt, trade deficits, the retail buyers strong involvement in the recent market correction nearing the 100 Month Moving Average, the possibilities of a correction to near the 200 Month Moving average (perhaps the "hair curling" event Buffet recently mentions, and the ZBT signal trigger. Lets refresh where we are at please: VMFXX 0.90% VIGAX 4.93% VBIL 8.17% VCLT 0.59% VCRB 7.88% VWOB 0.99% VYMI 0.43% VTI 4.01% BAC 0.39% PLTR 1.18% BA 0.67% FMFXX 0.09% TEMWX 2.70% LMIMCO Target Date Fund-2025 13.07% LMIMCO ESOP 10.70% LMIMCO Large Cap Index 5.76% LMIMCO Small Mid Cap Index 1.91% LMIMCO Company Stock 4.59% LMIMCO Global Equities Fund 2.30% GE 0.82% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.41% MCD 0.50% WAB 0.03% USAIX 2.97% USTEX 1.15% SWVXX 4.59% VCIT 0.39% SCHD 0.55% AAPL 0.67% CCJ 0.39% F 0.08% INTC 1.15% JNJ 0.81% MSFT 7.27% OGE 0.23% PFE 0.37% MTSUY 0.48% SSUMY 0.46% T 1.67% TSLA 1.15% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.91% XOM 0.53%