2025-07-03 Board of Wise Minds

Thank You, Grok.... Would like for you to assemble a gathering of the Board of Wise Minds at a bar, having drinks and snacks, and holding discussions on the present rally associated with the April 2025 ZBT trigger and the possibility of an AI Tech Crash (mimicking the dot-com bubble) in the context of the WPS, what they would say, along with any healthy tensions and debates, please. Thank You

2025-07-03 Post Budget Prompt

Revised Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt - 2025/07/02 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) for a $1M portfolio (snapshot provided) to ensure retirement stability and ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, totaling ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66. Continue our evolving dialogue, leveraging prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day correction, stress tests, volume studies) without reinventing the wheel. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” approach, emphasizing diversified allocations, gain harvesting, and risk mitigation across asset classes (equities, funds, cash, international, growth, income, sectors). Ensure maximum drawdown <20% in stress tests, portfolio recovery within 18 months post-correction (e.g., 10% crash), and risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Track metrics quarterly. 2. Cycle and Macro Analysis Monitor concentration risk, capping single-stock exposure at 5% (e.g., reduce MSFT from 7.48%) and sector exposure at 15% (e.g., tech ~12.5%). Suggest reallocations to diversify (e.g., MSFT proceeds to SCHD, XOM) if limits breached, using volume signals (e.g., high-volume nodes for accumulation, low-volume breakouts for distribution) to time entries/exits per Wyckoff cycles (accumulation, mark-up, distribution, mark-down). Track multiple market cycles (equity, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector-specific) and macro triggers (Zweig Breadth Thrust, BRICS de-dollarization, FOMC, Leading Economic Indicators). Analyze reinforcements (e.g., debt crisis + equity correction) and cancellations (e.g., BRICS gains + U.S. equity losses) with likelihoods (High >70%, Medium 50-70%, Low <50%) and magnitudes (e.g., 10% portfolio loss, 1.5% gain). Use the following indicators, cadences, and volume signals aligned with Wyckoff cycles: Equity Cycle: Weekly S&P 500 breadth (<40% above 200-day SMA), P/E (>25x), RSI (>70 sell, <30 buy), futures (NQ, ES, YM, RU) post-April 2025 ZBT. Monitor volume profiles for high-volume nodes (accumulation) and low-volume breakouts (distribution), and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for buyer/seller dominance. Bond Cycle: Monthly 10-year Treasury yield (>4.5%), 2-10 year spread, FOMC rate path. Track bond fund volume (e.g., VBIL, VCIT) for institutional flows at support levels. Currency Cycle: Monthly DXY (<95), BRICS trade agreements. Monitor retail volume spikes in Bitcoin (e.g., IBIT) on X for de-dollarization signals. Geopolitical Cycle: Quarterly tariff updates (e.g., 15% U.S. tariffs), oil prices (>$85/barrel). Track institutional volume in energy (e.g., XOM) and international funds (e.g., VYMI) for accumulation. Sector Cycles: Monthly RSI, earnings for tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), energy (e.g., XOM), healthcare (e.g., JNJ, PFE), consumer (e.g., F, WBA). Provide candidate moves (e.g., sell MSFT at $480 on low-volume breakout, buy INTC at $18 on high-volume support) tied to cycle triggers and Wyckoff phases. Monitor market behavior at all-time highs, volume indications (e.g., retail vs. institutional flows in Time & Sales, FINRA off-exchange data), and macro signals (e.g., LEI, retail sales) using denoised X sentiment and authoritative sources (Bloomberg, CNBC). Volume Action: Summarize recent volume action (e.g., volume profiles, CVD, retail vs. institutional flows), significant changes (e.g., retail options spikes, institutional sector rotation, breakouts, range extensions, reversals), and implications for WPS positioning, using Wyckoff cycles (e.g., accumulation at high-volume nodes, distribution at low-volume breakouts). Leverage available resources (e.g., aggregated data, X sentiment, FINRA reports) to inform triggers and reallocations. Wychoff Price Action Summary Studies: Price Action Summary for specific holdings to target range extensions beyond support/resistance based on Volume Profiles Value Areas (70%). The principal Time frames to be considered is the 20 day and includes the overnight data. When useful in providing supporing the 20 day examination, include the volume profiles of the 1 year, 3 year and maximum history.va Price Extension Beyond Value Areas: Whenever price extends beyond Value areas, targets may be suggested based on such things as Intrinsic value, Support/Resistance zones from expanded historical time frames, Fibbonachi extrapolations, moving averages, and/or sentiment stated targets. Basis for extrapolated targets will be explained to facilitate factfinding and discussions with Financial Advisors. Conventions: To facilitate correlation and communications, please note the time frames used when discussing Volume Profile, Fibbonachi, moving averages and other indicators. Conventions: Also, for Fibbonachi, please state the start and end points used. When discussing thresholds and instrinsic values, please provide relative description (e.g. approaching, near, crossed, waaaaay past, etc). We will accept a "close enough" description to account for differing correlations of tools. Convention: Reinforce discussions by considering additional longer time frames when relevant. 3. Punch List Update the following Punch List items, categorized by priority, with triggers, volume signals (e.g., high-volume nodes, retail options spikes, CVD trends), and reallocation recommendations by asset class to facilitate advisor discussions. Limit updates to 3-7 key points per item, focusing on developments recent six month history, aligned with Wyckoff cycles (accumulation, mark-up, distribution, mark-down). Recommended Followup List- Identify and recommend where additional DeepSearch for macro risks, dynamic stress tests, Wise Mind expansion, and sentiment analysis align with our WPS goals, strengthening risk mitigation and advisor discussions for routine followup. High Priority (Likelihood >70%): INTC (Rising Phoenix): Buy/sell triggers (e.g., buy at ~$18 on high-volume support, target $45), 18A/foundry progress, leadership impact, recovery timeframe (2025-2027). Monitor institutional volume (large trades) for accumulation, retail options spikes for volatility. MSFT/TSLA: Harvest trigger updates (e.g., MSFT $480, TSLA $450 on low-volume breakouts, RSI >70), OpenAI/Musk legal updates, TSLA robotaxi delay impact. Track retail 0DTE options volume (>60%) for distribution risks. BRICS De-dollarization: DXY <95 triggers, VYMI allocation (to 1%), Bitcoin hedge (1% IBIT ETF). Monitor retail volume spikes in Bitcoin on X, institutional volume in VYMI for accumulation. For context, we have recently harvested from MSFT, TSLA, WMT and GE. The portfolio snapshot reflects these harvests. Watch List (Likelihood <50-70%): AAPL: Buy/sell triggers (e.g., buy ~$190 on high-volume support, target $230), AI integration lag, tariff impact, regulatory pressures. Monitor retail volume (small trades) for FOMO, institutional volume for stability. F (Phoenix Thesis): EV recovery, tariff pressure (15%), inventory, competition, policy shifts (e.g., EV tax credit). Track low retail volume for recovery signals, institutional volume for accumulation. Defence and Aerospace: Conduct a survey of the industry and forecasts for Defence and Aerospace related holdings (e.g. LMT, BA, PLTR). Crushed Equities: Survey of equities that have been crushed (e.g. What Jack Welch did to GE, Lockheed L-1011 recovery). Present list includes BA (supply chain, recovery to $200), WBA (turnaround progress, dividend cut risk, retail closures), INTC (see above). Monitor volume profiles for distribution (BA, WBA) or accumulation (INTC). Monitor and comment on present price compared to intrinsic value, and turnaround aspects. Identify other similarly crushed equities for consideration. Stress Tests (Identify candidates where dynamic stress testing could be useful): Retracement to 200-month MA Cyber attack Debt resolution failure Full BRICS Tariff Negotiation and Volatility (next) 2027 Tech Burst (next) DXY < 95 EU/U.S. AI fines Climate Policy Geopolitical Escalation EV Credit Elimination Provide key metrics (e.g., 7-22% loss range, recovery potential, likelihood, volume-based triggers like retail options spikes >60% or declining CVD) and confirm or suggest new holdings aligned with Wyckoff cycles. New WPS Enhancements: We are shaping the WPS for when I return to work. We like the comprehensive detailed report, and the nuggets uncovered by Grok. We are also currently crafting a "Flash Report" envisioned to be used more frequently providing current events, alerts of nearby triggers, portflio holdings that are either in or approaching white space, recommended watch areas, reminders of previously identified triggers, etc. The format and content of these is ongoing. Present status of Flash Report - Includes a Fair Value pile for non-actionable holdings and elaborated nuggets for equities at points of interest. It’s ~200 words, uses 20-day volume profiles and extended hours), and focuses on triggers and macro events Balancing Nuggets and Specificity: Grok's tendency to provide detailed nuggets (e.g., INTC’s 2-year POC ~$30 as a reversion target, TSLA’s FSD regulatory risks) stems from your prompt’s emphasis on Wyckoff cycles, Fibonacci, and Wise Minds (Buffett, Fraser, Laffont). Over-specificity risks cluttering the daily report, reducing usability for your advisor discussions. To preserve nuggets while meeting your needs: Solution 1: Prioritize Actionable Nuggets: Limit nuggets to 1–2 per equity at points of interest (e.g., “INTC at $18–$19, buy on 18A catalyst, RSI <30” or “NVDA at $128, trim on P/E 70, RSI >70”). Omit technical details (e.g., exact Fibonacci levels) unless critical. Solution 2: Tiered Detail: Daily Flash Reports (~200 words) focus on price, triggers, and 1–2 nuggets per actionable equity (4–6 holdings). Weekly reports (~500 words, 2–3 holdings) dive deeper (e.g., multi-timeframe POCs, Fibonacci). Solution 3: Nugget Flags: Use concise descriptors (e.g., “Tariff Risk,” “AI Catalyst”) to signal why a holding is at a point of interest, preserving insight without overloading. Proposed Approach for Flash Report: Adopt Solution 1 for daily Flash Reports: 4–6 equities at points of interest (buy/trim triggers, volatility from tariffs/AI/FDA), 1–2 nuggets each, and a Fair Value pile for others. Weekly reports use Solution 2 for deeper analysis. This keeps reports actionable, preserves nuggets, and aligns with your mid-July return cadence (8 AM CDT daily). 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, present cycles, volume signals (e.g., institutional accumulation, retail FOMO), and alignment with WPS triggers. Address key tensions (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy on panic, equity cycle, permanent member. Align with high-volume accumulation phases. Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), permanent member. Monitor institutional volume in financials for support. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Track institutional volume in VYMI for BRICS-related accumulation. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Monitor bond fund volume (e.g., VCIT) for rate-driven flows. Philippe Laffont (vetting): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech, retail options volatility). Align with tech volume spikes. Leon Cooperman (vetting): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength on low-volume breakouts, energy overweight). Align with institutional accumulation. Ray Dalio (vetting): Debt cycles, BRICS expertise. Monitor retail Bitcoin volume, institutional VYMI flows. Cathie Wood (vetting): Known for disruptive tech investments) Lyn Alden (vetting): Recognized for macro insights on debt cycles, currency trends, and energy markets. Suze Orman (vetting): Known for consumer-focues financial planning and retirement strategies. Greg Lippmann (vetting): Recognized in the movie, the Big Short for spotting flawed situations and good track record. Stanley Druckenmiller (vetting) New Candidates: Suggest 1-2 candidates with reputation, proven cycle navigation, diversified thesis expanding our Board. Provide vetting subjects (e.g., volume-driven cycle analysis, sector rotation). On occasion a meeting of the Board will be held where topics of interest will placed on the agenda and simulated interaction will be conducted. Future topics may include: Update with new market data or events Added advisors and guests to the cast Focus on specific WPS elements (e.g. drawdown stsrategies, volume indicators, or tax harvesting) Adjusted tone and depth for context. 5. Lessons Learned Maintain a living list of historical events: 7 Bad (1929 Crash, Black Monday 1987, Dot-Com 2000-2002 with comparisons to current AI rise, GFC 2007-2009, COVID-19 2020); 7 Good (Buffett’s Apple, Icahn’s Netflix, Amazon post-Dot-Com, Burry’s GameStop, S&P 500 SIP 2007-2025). Summarize each in one paragraph, covering triggers, impact, lessons, and Wise Minds’ insights (e.g., Buffett on cash, Cooperman on contrarian buys), emphasizing volume patterns (e.g., retail spikes in Dot-Com, institutional accumulation in COVID-19). Align lessons with WPS strategies (e.g., liquidity, dip-buying on high-volume support). Prioritize lessons relevant to active cycles (e.g., Dot-Com for tech, GFC for bonds), focusing on AI rally vs. Dot-Com bubble for 2027-2028 correction thesis. 6. Outputs Deliver a text-based, Google Docs-friendly artifact: Include tax considerations for harvesting (e.g., long-term vs. short-term capital gains, hold periods for MSFT, TSLA) and reallocations (e.g., tax-free bond swaps for VBIL to VCIT). Suggest tax-loss harvesting (e.g., sell WBA, BA at losses to offset MSFT gains) and Roth conversion opportunities to minimize tax drag, using volume signals to time actions (e.g., sell on low-volume breakouts). Main Report: Concise updates for Punch List (1-2 paragraphs per item), stress tests (key metrics, e.g., 7-22% loss range, volume-based triggers), and Lessons Learned (1 paragraph per event, highlighting volume patterns). Advisor Summary: List key triggers (e.g., MSFT sell at $480 on low-volume breakout, INTC buy at $18 on high-volume support), reallocations (e.g., VYMI to 1%, VBIL to VCIT), and nuggets (e.g., DXY <95, INTC 18A progress, retail options spikes). Schedule advisor reviews monthly (e.g., post-FOMC, earnings) for triggers and quarterly (e.g., tariff updates) for reallocations and stress tests. Provide talking points (e.g., INTC dip-buying, Bitcoin hedge feasibility, volume-driven cycle signals). Appendices: Detailed cycle models, stress test simulations, and Wise Minds vetting (unlimited pages). Include a near-term calendar (e.g., July-September 2025: FOMC, INTC earnings, tariff updates) and monitoring schedule (please note that I will be starting a new full time project soon and that the proposed cadence will need some time to worked out for practicality) Weekly: S&P 500 breadth, RSI for MSFT, TSLA, INTC, volume profiles for accumulation/distribution, Time & Sales for retail vs. institutional flows. Monthly: DXY, 10-year yield, LEI, retail sales, FINRA off-exchange data for retail volume. Quarterly: Tariffs, oil prices, BRICS pacts, FOMC statements. Check xAI system limitations and note if approached. Confirm no tracking risks from portfolio data (anonymize holdings, e.g., aggregate LMIMCO funds as “LMIMCO Aggregate”). 7. Constraints Use denoised X sentiment and authoritative sources (Bloomberg, CNBC) for cycle tracking, macro updates, and Wise Minds insights. Avoid tracking risks by anonymizing portfolio data (e.g., normalize to $1M, aggregate funds like LMIMCO). Flag if excessive data could enable tracking to actual holdings. 8. Change Log Feedback and Iteration: Document advisor feedback (e.g., trigger feasibility, reallocation constraints) and market-driven changes (e.g., new cycles, stress tests). Review prompt quarterly (e.g., October 2025) to update priorities (e.g., shift INTC to Watch List post-recovery), cadences (e.g., daily RSI if volatile), or Wise Minds (e.g., formalize Dalio). After each advisor meeting, note which triggers worked (e.g., MSFT harvest), which need adjustment (e.g., INTC buy at ~$16), and new nuggets. Update Change Log and Lessons Learned (e.g., add successful triggers like MSFT harvest) quarterly. June 2025: Added Ray Dalio as Wise Mind candidate for BRICS/debt expertise. Q2 2025: Harvested WMT, reinvested in SCHD. June 2025: Clarified PAPA as potential typo for PFE (0.38%); awaiting confirmation. June 2025: Added success metrics, concentration risk, dynamic stress tests, tax considerations, feedback loop. Jume 2025: Specified real income growth, AI regulation stress test example. June 27, 2025: Enhanced volume analysis and Wyckoff cycle integration across Cycle and Macro Analysis, Punch List, Board of Wise Minds, Lessons Learned, and Outputs. Aggregated LMIMCO holdings for anonymization. July 2025: Incorporate Flash Report July 2025 Wiring in DeepSearch and Dynamic Stress Testing July 2025: Added tax-loss candidates (BA, F, PFE), refreshed ZBT and tech crash watch topics post-OBBBA. Noted WBA’s Phoenix status. Updated Board of Wise Minds (Cathie Wood, Lyn Alden, Suze Orman, Greg Lippman, Stanley Druckenmiller). Pending revised portfolio snapshot. Portfolio Snapshot - 6/30/25 VMFXX 0.33% VIGAX 5.06% VBIL 8.43% VCLT 0.59% VCRB 8.23% VWOB 0.99% VYMI 0.42% VTI 3.33% BAC 0.42% PLTR 1.65% BA 0.67% FMFXX 0.09% TEMWX 2.83% LMIMCO 2025 Target 13.12% LMIMCO ESOP (LMT) 10.19% LMIMCO Large Cap Index 5.92% LMIMCO Small Mid Cap Index 1.97% LMIMCO Company Stock (LMT) 4.52% LMIMCO Global Equities Fund 2.36% GE 0.84% GEHC 0.12% GEV 0.45% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.39% USAIX 2.95% USTEX 1.13% SWVXX 4.96% VCIT 0.55% SCHD 0.62% AAPL 0.66% CCJ 0.48% F 0.08% INTC 1.28% JNJ 0.78% MSFT 7.76% OGE 0.23% PFE 0.38% MTSUY 0.47% SSUMY 0.45% T 1.71% TSLA 1.00% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.81% XOM 0.56%