CORN (ZC) END OF YEAR REVIEW - 2016

I have not actively traded grains.   This is my first attempted observation of Corn, ZC




Hyper price of corn was observed coinciding with hyper oil activity - Ethanol coupling
Prices for corn appear to have settled into a well defined range.
Watch for seasonal pricing action (i.e.. buy in January, sell in May-July, watch the weather)

Possible annual price template for grains (barring natural disasters)

DOW (YM) END OF YEAR REVIEW - 2016

2016 Began with an extended correction (in my opinion) to allow Approved Participants the courtesy of reconciling business necessary to halt the prior China Meltdown and solidifying a base around 18,000.

With the uncertain elections conducted in 2016, a prolonged consolidation position was developed, again around the 18,000 level.

BREXIT and the U.S. Presidential election provided for (in my opinion), a controlled pullback and "finally" a chance for price to break above the 18,000 High Volume Peak, short of the 20,000 level.

Barring any surprises with the new U.S. President and the upcoming European elections, I'm anticipating price to continue filling out support around 19.000 (with a possible retest of 18,000) on the market's own merits and not that based on Quantitative Easing hyper inflating price.


On a side note, the major houses reported earlier in the year a reduction in the number of traders (by/to?) approximately 30% of the prior trader base and replacing them with computers.  Later in 2016, these houses reported a 50% increase in profit from trading - To me, this means the Price Action  cadence has changed.   In 2017, watch for appearances of algorithmic trading campaigns on the multiday and intraday timeframes.

2017 (in my opinion) should be be a lively year.




View of The Long Term Dow - Monthly Time Frame

OIL YEAR END REVIEW - 12/29/2016

Weekly View

- Oil has bounced off historical low prices

- Price (in limbo) between U.S. break even entry levels

- Price ending the year near a psychological Low Volume Level

Daily View

- Recent trend has been long

- Price approaching psychological low volume level (watch for change)
- Prices is attempting to break above 1-year value area

30 Minute View

- Price has tested the psychological low volume level once after OPEC announcement

- Price is approaching this level again

- Trend has been Long

- Watch for change

NATURAL GAS YEAR END REVIEW 12/29/2016

WEEKLY TIME FRAME

- NATURAL GAS PRICES HAVE LIFTED OFF ALL TIME LOWS

- PRICE HAS CLIMBED THROUGH LOWER $2-3 RANGE

- PRICE HAS CLIMBED INTO $3.75-4.75 RANGE

- NEUTRAL SCENARIO IS TO BRIDGE THESE TWO RANGES

- BULL SCENARIO, CONTINUE TRENDING LONG

DAILY VIEW

- PRICE HAS CLEARLY ENTERED HIGHER PRICE RANGE $3.75-4.75

- DEFAULT TREND IS LONG

- TIME TO OBSERVE PRICE ACTION FOR POSSIBLE FLIP

30 MINUTE VIEW

- PRICE HAS RALLIED 6 STRAIGHT DAYS (DUE FOR A FLIP?)

- PRICE CLEARLY INTO HIGHER PURPLE REGION

- OBSERVE HOW CLOSE PRICE RESPECTS THE SMA 80

- DEFAULT TREND IS LONG

- WATCH FOR  ROUND TOP FLIP

GOLD YEAR END REVIEW - 12/29/2016

DECEMBER 29TH, 2016 UPDATE

Getting close to the end of year.   An overview is in order...

WEEKLY TIME

- IN 2016, GOLD EXPERIENCED AN OVERALL LIQUIDATION

- GOLD COMPLETED A HI-LOW TRANSITION WITHIN 20 YEAR PSYCHOLOGICAL HVA

- ZOOM IN TO EXAMINE THE RESPONSE TO THIS EDGE

4 HOUR TIME FRAME VIEW

- GOLD LIQUIDATION OVERSHOT PSYCHOLOGICAL 20 YEAR HVA EDGE SLIGHTLY

- PRICE PUT IN AN EXTENDED 10 DAY ROUND BOTTOM (TWO TRADING WEEKS)

- PRICE HAS REENTERED THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 20 YEAR HVA

5 MINUTE VIEW

- SHOWS AFTER TWO DAYS AT PSYCHOLOGICAL 20 YEAR HVA EDGE RESISTANCE

- SHOWS PRICE ACCEPTED INTO PSYCHOLOGICAL  20 YEAR HVA RANGE,

- PRICE DEMONSTRATING RESPECT FOR THE SMA 200

CARRY OVER CONSIDERATION:
- BULL RATIONALE FOR TREND TRADING: DAY TRADE 4 DAY MARKUP TREND
- NEUTRAL TRADING RATIONALE:  PRICE IS ENTERING FAIR VALUE REGION

--------------------------------------

2016 December 27, Morning NQ Review

Multiday Context - MP (daily) shows diminishing activity. Confounding this is the traditional preholiday drop off in activity. Technical wise - Auction in this range would appear to be completed and this morning, broke into a new trading area.

THREE NQ Trades (2-1)

#1-2) I wasn't running my robot but spotted valid robot entry triggers and made a laggard manual market order entry for small yield.

#3-4) Although price did not stop at any "defined" resistance levels that were visible, the price action put in a FTIF pattern off SMA 20 (orange) to go short. This trade lost.

#5-6) Price action bounced off SMA 50 resistance (white) for a second time. Normally, I'd let this pass but the rapid morning run up in price left a considerable vertical span - Price was out of balance and a return to balance was needed. My ultimate target was the open (R1) however I flattened after price bounced off R3)

COT DECEMBER 2016

Mixed results depending on the market

Energy in plenty of supply with Leverage funds naming the price

Leverage funds are leaving gold

Mixed on the ES, YM and NQ

Oil looks correct - Commercials are selling and Managed money is Buying at whatever price they want
Follow Managed Money

GOLD - Managed money continues to sell hard while Commercials are increasing their buying
Follow Managed Money

Natural Gas - Managed money is buying and setting the price, producers selling what ever they have.
Follow Managed Money

Asset managers are taking ES up.  
Dealers remain neutral
Leveraged funds are steady selling
Mixed Market

Leveraged Funds buying the market up
Asset Managers buying slightly
Dealers more than happy to sell
Long the Dow

Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers selling off their positions
Dealers picking up the orders
Short the NQ

Bonds - ZN 10 Year December 2016

Bonds have been moving lower and reaching historical levels:

90 Day Bond Prices Falling

3 year view - ZN Bonds falling to 3 year low levels

20 Year View - Bond Prices re-entering the 20 year most popular price range

Lean Hogs - December 2016

Prices are climbing....

After putting in a 20 year low, the price for Lean Hogs is climbing back into value range

The good news is that price is within the range we've had for the last 2 recent years...

While we had a gap down approximately 2 months ago, we've recently had a gap up

While pork products are still a good buy, watch out for local price gouging.

Natural Gas - December 2016

20 Year View show recent up trend in Natural Gas Prices, yet still within its 20 year high volume area
Uncertain are the large capital projects that are in work based on peak NG prices

3 year view shows possible bottoming of Natural Gas pricing

90 Day view of Natural Gas prices, from a technical MP perspective, shows possible settling price between the two HVA's

Trend suggests going long on NG Companies

Intraday Trade per detailed rules

Oil - December 2016

OPEC and major Non-OPEC countries have declared an agreement to curb production.   Uncertain is the ability to maintain that agreement...

Oil is near its 20 year point of control

3 year view shows oil's fall into a range between the profitable price bands - placing shale producers in limbo

90 day view shows opportunities for intraday trading

Gold - 12/14/2016

DECEMBER 14TH, 2016 UPDATE
The Elections are over, let's take a look at gold....

90 Day View - Since the elections, gold prices has fallen

3 Year View - Possible support on the 3 year High Volume Area.   Look for a possible reversal

20 Year View - Gold continues to trade near it's 20 year Point of Control.  Right where it should be...

Japanese Yen - December 2016

JAPANESE YEN - 6J

ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 2016, SOMETHING HAPPENED TO THE JAPANESE YEN 30 DAY VIEW

TWENTY YEAR VIEW - It appears after the run up, it has returned to value...

Three Year Close Up  - 6J Japanese Yen

Trumps Tweet on the F-35

This came out at 7:46 am

Backdrop: LMT Price had recently double topped off the $270 target and was already in the process of correcting when the tweet came out making news. This double top capped of a very nice post election rally plus surprise word that future growth at 7% was possible. "Buy on the rumor and sell the news...." Remember that one?

Summary: After the news making tweet, an orderly sequence of activity took place, demonstrating the strength and depth of the market as well as the market's ability to make a profit trading under the guise of "the news".

A One Year view is provided to aid in gathering context. Notice the major trend channel forming. Remember this

One Year View

A closer view at 90 days out shows price putting in a double top at the $270 target level and catching support off the SMA 200, putting in a low of the day close to the reach of the lower major trend line (red).   Only short timeframe traders can execute this so exactly.

90 day view

Zooming in to the Daily View, here is today's DETAILED PRICE ACTION:

1. TRUMP TWEET
2. PRICES CRASHES ON PRACTICALLY….
3. ZERO VOLUME
4. A & B - “SELL ON OPEN” ORDERS FIRE OFF AT THE OPENING BELL WITH RESPECTABLE VOLUME, SELLS INTO...
5. STRONG STEADY BUYING (ACCUMULATION) AT THE DISCOUNT
6. PRICE TESTS MAJOR TREND LINE
7. AND PROCEEDS TO MARKUP PRICE TO THE PREMARKET POINT OF CONTROL UNTIL
8. CLOSING BELL, END OF SESSION WHEN THE CASH OUT IS ALL THOSE HOLDING LONG WHO MADE A NICE PROFIT BUYING AT THE DISCOUNT.

TAKEAWAY:

RULING REASON: LONG TERM TRADERS ENDED THE DAY WITH A -2.4% CHANGE ON AN ISSUE THAT WAS APPEARING READY FOR A CORRECTION.

RULING REASON: THE QUICK AND NIMBLE DEALERS APPEARED TO HAVE PROFITED NICELY DRIVING THE MARKET DOWN ON NEWS AND LITTLE VOLUME, WITH LAGGARD SELLERS ARRIVING AT THE OPENING BELL, AND THE BOUGHT LOW WHILE SELLING HIGHER. PRETTY SLICK....

RULING REASON: THIS WAS A COORDINATED MOVE IN RESPONSE TO NEWS.   WATCH FOR THIS IF TRUMP TWEETS OTHER COMPANIES

RULING REASON: TOMORROW AND IN THE DAYS AHEAD, WATCH FOR THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE LOT TRADERS (LONG TIMEFRAME TRADERS) TO PARTICIPATE IN THE NEWS.



PUT THESE 9 ON YOUR WATCHLIST....
http://www.cbsnews.com/media/9-ceos-who-may-fear-a-donald-trump-presidency/

AMAZON
FORD
APPLE
LOCKHEED MARTIN
NEW YORK TIMES
FACEBOOK
H&R BLOCK
PFIZER
BLACKSTONE

Price Action:   Nasdaq Futures, NQ E-Mini

• Leading up to today, price was stuck above the 1 year Point of Control
• Liquidate occurred coinciding with the Italian Referendum
• 1 Year Point of Control held as support
• Liquidation goal was the Levee zone where Global Bank buying entered
• Price lifted the market during the overnight with little protest (excellent move)
• Watch for 1 Year Point of Control to act as resistance.

Nasdaq Futures - (1 Year Point of Control, upper purple band)

Price Action:  S&P 500 Futures - ES E-Mini

• Leading up to today, Thanksgiving volume near all time high
• Market Maker Liquidated back to POC #3 coinciding with Italian Referendum (smoke screen)
• Market Maker (Global Banks) halted liquidation at POC #3, bought contracts cheap
• All loses were recovered via marking up during overnight with little protest
• I believe this was by design (Not bad for a weekend/globex campaign)
• Today, Price held filling in the LVA within the December Barnacle Field, which was also in the design

MP Action

• ES and NQ rebounded from the Italian Referendum hit
• ES did “NOT” close the gap
• ES migrated away from POC #3
• ES filling in December’s Barnacle field
• ES Day Time Frame, moving higher
• Taylor Trending has started Day #1 Long in both ES & NQ
• Dow reached ATH
• Expecting to remain in this area the next several days, barring any “news”

• NQ put in a spike this morning and moved the auction back into the NQ 1 year POC
• NQ settled at it’s POC - No excess spotted
• NQ Day Time Frame, moving higher

• Ruling reason, the market is presently in balance, Use Intraday trade rules

Thanksgiving Holiday Review

Last Week

Volume Action

$TVOLSPC (ES) and TVOLNDC (NQ) diminished with the Thanksgiving Holiday (Expected)

Market Profile Action

The NQ Futures on Thursday and Friday settled amongst the three prior day’s Points of Control.  This would seem reasonable.

The S&P Futures on Thursday and Friday drifted to All Time Highs.  This movement coupled with the light volume suggests the work of a Short Time Frame Operator moving price higher with little resistance to deal with.   I would expect on Monday, that this operator sell.

1 year view

The Nasdaq (NQ)  Futures are still trading within it’s Barnacle Island.   This island is becoming “extremely” pronounced - I would expect price action to 1) Return to the prominent Point of Control 2) Trade around this point to widen the distribution.

The S&P (ES) Futures has broken above Point of Control #3 and made All Time Highs on weak volume.  This should be grabbing people’s attention.    Look for price to 1) test at prior highs before going long on stronger volume, 2) Retreat back into POC, 3) Dwell here on thin volume.