Saturday, May 3, 2025

Grok Round Three



Hello Grok,

I would appreciate your assement please on the list of securities.

For each, may we include the present P/E ratio, price, and assessment of the companies health using criteria used by Warren Buffet?

I would like your assessment to list these in order that Warren Buffet would use.

Thank You!


AAPL

BAC

CCJ

F

GE INTC

JNJ

LMT

MSFT

OGE

PLTR

PFE

T

TSLA

VZ

XOM

GEV

GEHC

MITSUY

SSUMY

PG

MCD

BA

WMT

 


To address your request, I’ll provide an assessment of the listed securities, focusing on their current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, stock price, and an evaluation of company health based on criteria inspired by Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy. The results will be ordered by their attractiveness according to Buffett’s principles, as interpreted from his writings and practices, such as those outlined in sources like his Berkshire Hathaway annual reports and the referenced InvestorsFriend.com article. Since Buffett emphasizes intrinsic value over simplistic metrics like P/E, I’ll prioritize companies with strong fundamentals, predictable cash flows, and competitive advantages, while considering P/E and price as secondary indicators.

Warren Buffett’s Investment Criteria

Buffett’s approach, as detailed in sources like and, focuses on:

  1. Intrinsic Value: Calculated based on discounted future cash flows, not just P/E or book value. P/E is a crude measure, useful only when contextualized by growth, margins, and risks.
  2. Economic Moat: Businesses with durable competitive advantages (brand, cost leadership, or network effects).
  3. Consistent Earnings: Stable, predictable earnings with a history of profitability.
  4. Management Quality: Trustworthy, shareholder-friendly management.
  5. Margin of Safety: Buying at a price below intrinsic value to minimize risk.
  6. Financial Health: Strong balance sheets with low debt, high return on equity (ROE), and robust free cash flow.

Buffett avoids overpaying for growth (high P/E ratios) unless justified by exceptional quality, as seen in his investments in companies like Apple or Coca-Cola. He also prefers businesses he understands, often shunning volatile or speculative sectors unless they offer clear value.

Methodology

  • P/E Ratio and Stock Price: Sourced from recent financial data, primarily Yahoo Finance and CompaniesMarketCap.com, as of May 6, 2025. Where exact figures are unavailable, I’ll note approximations or limitations.
  • Company Health: Assessed using Buffett’s criteria, focusing on competitive moats, earnings stability, debt levels, ROE, and cash flow. I’ll reference industry context from sources like FullRatio for P/E benchmarks.
  • Ranking: Ordered by estimated attractiveness to Buffett, based on intrinsic value (qualitatively assessed due to limited real-time cash flow data), moat strength, and margin of safety. Companies with lower P/E ratios, strong fundamentals, and reasonable valuations rank higher, while speculative or debt-heavy firms rank lower.
  • Limitations: Exact intrinsic value calculations require proprietary data (e.g., normalized earnings, growth rates), so I’ll use qualitative proxies. Some securities (e.g., MITSUY, SSUMY) trade as ADRs, complicating direct comparisons. For GE spinoffs (GEV, GEHC), limited historical data may affect assessments.

Below is the analysis for each security, followed by the ranked list.


Security Analysis

  1. Apple Inc. (AAPL)
    • P/E Ratio: ~34.5 (Yahoo Finance, trailing twelve months).
    • Stock Price: ~$252.33 (as of May 5, 2025).
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Exceptional brand loyalty, ecosystem lock-in (iPhone, services like iCloud), and premium pricing power. Dominant in consumer electronics.
      • Earnings: Consistent, with $6.97 EPS (TTM) and strong service revenue growth (e.g., App Store). High margins (~26% operating margin).
      • Financials: Low debt-to-equity (~1.5), $67B in cash, and massive free cash flow (~$100B annually). ROE ~150%.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett owns a large stake, valuing Apple’s predictable cash flows and brand. However, the high P/E suggests limited margin of safety at current prices.
      • Concerns: Growth slowing in hardware; high valuation requires sustained innovation (e.g., AI, Vision Pro).
  2. Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
    • P/E Ratio: ~15.2.
    • Stock Price: ~$46.12.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Leading U.S. bank with extensive retail and wealth management networks. Scale and regulatory barriers provide an edge.
      • Earnings: Stable but cyclical, tied to interest rates and economic conditions. EPS ~$3.03.
      • Financials: Moderate leverage (typical for banks), strong capital ratios (CET1 ~11.8%). ROE ~10%.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett holds a significant stake, attracted by BAC’s scale and normalized earnings power. Low P/E offers a margin of safety.
      • Concerns: Vulnerable to recessions or rate fluctuations.
  3. Cameco Corporation (CCJ)
    • P/E Ratio: ~46.8.
    • Stock Price: ~$56.78.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Leading uranium producer, benefiting from nuclear energy demand. Long-term contracts provide some stability.
      • Earnings: Volatile, tied to uranium prices. Recent EPS ~$0.82.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, improving cash flows as nuclear demand rises. ROE ~7%.
      • Buffett Fit: Commodity businesses lack predictable earnings, which Buffett avoids unless deeply undervalued. High P/E reduces appeal.
      • Concerns: Cyclical risks; speculative growth baked into price.
  4. Ford Motor Company (F)
    • P/E Ratio: ~6.8.
    • Stock Price: ~$11.32.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Limited; competes in a capital-intensive, low-margin industry. Brand strength in trucks (F-150) but no durable edge.
      • Earnings: Cyclical, with EPS ~$1.66. Weak 2022 sales but strong truck/EV segments.
      • Financials: High debt (~$140B), low ROE (~8%). Cash flow strained by EV investments.
      • Buffett Fit: Low P/E is attractive, but Buffett avoids auto manufacturers due to inconsistent earnings and competition.
      • Concerns: Debt burden, EV transition risks.
  5. General Electric (GE)
    • P/E Ratio: ~42.3.
    • Stock Price: ~$194.56.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Strong in aerospace (jet engines), but recent restructuring (spinoffs) narrows focus. Brand and contracts provide some edge.
      • Earnings: Improving post-restructuring, EPS ~$4.60. Aerospace demand drives growth.
      • Financials: Reduced debt (~$20B), ROE ~15%. Cash flow stabilizing.
      • Buffett Fit: High P/E and historical mismanagement deter Buffett, who prefers simpler businesses.
      • Concerns: Execution risks post-spinoff; valuation stretched.
  6. Intel Corporation (INTC)
    • P/E Ratio: ~88.4 (high due to low earnings).
    • Stock Price: ~$24.52.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Historically strong in CPUs, but losing ground to AMD and TSMC. Foundry ambitions unproven.
      • Earnings: Weak, with EPS ~$0.28 due to R&D and foundry losses.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, declining ROE (~2%). Cash reserves ~$25B.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett avoids turnaround stories and tech with unclear competitive edges. High P/E is a red flag.
      • Concerns: Execution risks in foundry; margin compression.
  7. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
    • P/E Ratio: ~16.7.
    • Stock Price: ~$162.45.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Strong brand in consumer health, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices. Patent portfolio and R&D pipeline.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$9.73. Consistent dividend growth.
      • Financials: Low debt, high ROE (~22%), strong cash flow (~$20B annually).
      • Buffett Fit: Classic Buffett pick: predictable earnings, strong moat, reasonable P/E. Spinoff of consumer health (Kenvue) reduces complexity.
      • Concerns: Patent expirations, litigation risks (e.g., talc).
  8. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
    • P/E Ratio: ~19.8.
    • Stock Price: ~$582.36.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Dominant in defense with long-term government contracts. High barriers to entry.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$29.42. Backlog ~$160B ensures visibility.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~80% (high due to share buybacks). Strong cash flow.
      • Buffett Fit: Reliable cash flows and moat align with Buffett’s criteria, though high price and defense sector risks temper enthusiasm.
      • Concerns: Budget cuts, geopolitical risks.
  9. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
    • P/E Ratio: ~36.2.
    • Stock Price: ~$416.54.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Dominant in cloud (Azure), software (Windows, Office), and AI. Network effects and scale.
      • Earnings: Strong, EPS ~$11.50. Cloud growth ~30% annually.
      • Financials: Low debt, high ROE (~35%), cash ~$80B. Exceptional cash flow.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett owns a small stake, valuing Microsoft’s moat and growth. High P/E limits margin of safety.
      • Concerns: Valuation assumes continued AI/cloud dominance.
  10. OGE Energy Corp. (OGE)
    • P/E Ratio: ~19.1.
    • Stock Price: ~$41.67.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Regulated utility with stable demand. Limited competition in service areas.
      • Earnings: Predictable, EPS ~$2.18. Dividend yield ~4%.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~10%. Steady cash flow.
      • Buffett Fit: Utilities are Buffett favorites for stable cash flows, but OGE’s smaller scale and regional focus lower its appeal.
      • Concerns: Regulatory risks, limited growth.
  11. Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
    • P/E Ratio: ~140.2.
    • Stock Price: ~$60.45.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Unique data analytics platform, strong in government and enterprise. High switching costs.
      • Earnings: Improving but low, EPS ~$0.43. Growth driven by AI.
      • Financials: Low debt, ROE ~10%. Cash ~$4B.
      • Buffett Fit: Speculative growth and high P/E are antithetical to Buffett’s value approach. He avoids unproven tech.
      • Concerns: Valuation assumes aggressive growth; profitability nascent.
  12. Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
    • P/E Ratio: ~12.9.
    • Stock Price: ~$26.84.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Strong pharma portfolio, but patent cliffs (e.g., COVID drugs) weaken edge.
      • Earnings: Declining, EPS ~$2.08. COVID revenue drop-off.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~10%. Cash flow ~$10B.
      • Buffett Fit: Low P/E is attractive, but declining earnings and pipeline risks reduce appeal. Buffett prefers JNJ’s stability.
      • Concerns: Post-COVID growth challenges.
  13. AT&T Inc. (T)
    • P/E Ratio: ~9.7.
    • Stock Price: ~$22.15.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Large telecom with network infrastructure. High switching costs but competitive pressure.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$2.28. Dividend yield ~5%.
      • Financials: High debt (~$130B), ROE ~12%. Cash flow improving post-WarnerMedia spinoff.
      • Buffett Fit: Low P/E and high yield appeal, but debt and competition limit enthusiasm.
      • Concerns: Debt overhang, margin pressure.
  14. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
    • P/E Ratio: ~108.5.
    • Stock Price: ~$389.22.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: EV leadership, brand, and manufacturing scale. Energy and AI (e.g., FSD) add potential.
      • Earnings: Growing, EPS ~$3.59. Margins pressured by price cuts.
      • Financials: Low debt, ROE ~20%. Cash ~$30B.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett avoids high-P/E growth stocks and complex tech. Tesla’s valuation assumes speculative AI/robotics success.
      • Concerns: Competition, execution risks in AI.
  15. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
    • P/E Ratio: ~9.4.
    • Stock Price: ~$42.83.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Similar to AT&T, with strong wireless network and customer base.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$4.56. Dividend yield ~6%.
      • Financials: High debt (~$150B), ROE ~15%. Cash flow ~$35B.
      • Buffett Fit: Low P/E and high yield are attractive, but debt and slow growth temper appeal.
      • Concerns: Debt, competitive pricing pressure.
  16. ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM)
    • P/E Ratio: ~13.6.
    • Stock Price: ~$122.45.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Scale in oil/gas, integrated operations. Weak moat due to commodity price volatility.
      • Earnings: Cyclical, EPS ~$9.01. Strong 2022-2024 due to high oil prices.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~20%. Cash flow ~$50B.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett holds XOM but prefers stable businesses. Low P/E is appealing, but commodity risks lower priority.
      • Concerns: Oil price volatility, energy transition risks.
  17. GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)
    • P/E Ratio: Not widely available (recent spinoff, limited data).
    • Stock Price: ~$255.41.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Leader in renewable energy and power systems. Long-term contracts provide stability.
      • Earnings: Early stage, profitability unclear. Focus on green energy growth.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, limited historical data.
      • Buffett Fit: New entities with unproven earnings are risky for Buffett. Lacks track record.
      • Concerns: Execution risks, valuation uncertainty.
  18. GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (GEHC)
    • P/E Ratio: ~23.4.
    • Stock Price: ~$94.12.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Strong in medical imaging and diagnostics. Brand and installed base.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$4.02. Healthcare demand resilient.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~15%. Cash flow growing.
      • Buffett Fit: Reasonable P/E and stable demand align with Buffett’s healthcare interest, but spinoff complexity reduces appeal.
      • Concerns: Integration risks, competition.
  19. Mitsubishi Corporation (MITSUY)
    • P/E Ratio: ~12.5.
    • Stock Price: ~$20.45 (ADR).
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Diversified conglomerate (trading, energy, finance). Scale and relationships in Japan.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$1.64. Broad revenue streams.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~10%. Strong cash flow.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett owns Japanese trading firms for diversification and value. Low P/E is attractive, but complexity and ADR status lower priority.
      • Concerns: Currency risks, opaque operations.
  20. Sumitomo Corporation (SSUMY)
    • P/E Ratio: ~11.8.
    • Stock Price: ~$24.67 (ADR).
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Similar to Mitsubishi, with diversified operations. Strong in metals, infrastructure.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$2.09.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~9%. Cash flow solid.
      • Buffett Fit: Aligns with Buffett’s Japanese investments. Low P/E offers value.
      • Concerns: Similar to MITSUY; less transparency.
  21. Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
    • P/E Ratio: ~25.1.
    • Stock Price: ~$171.28.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Iconic brands (Tide, Pampers), pricing power, global distribution.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$6.82. Consistent dividend growth.
      • Financials: Low debt, ROE ~30%. Cash flow ~$15B.
      • Buffett Fit: Classic Buffett holding (historically). Strong moat, but P/E slightly high.
      • Concerns: Slow growth, input cost inflation.
  22. McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)
    • P/E Ratio: ~25.8.
    • Stock Price: ~$317.85.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Global brand, franchise model, real estate ownership.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$12.32. High margins (~40% operating).
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~40% (leveraged). Cash flow ~$9B.
      • Buffett Fit: Franchise model and brand align with Buffett, but high P/E reduces margin of safety.
      • Concerns: Labor costs, consumer spending risks.
  23. Boeing Company (BA)
    • P/E Ratio: Negative (losses).
    • Stock Price: ~$155.42.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Duopoly in commercial aerospace, defense contracts. Tarnished by 737 MAX issues.
      • Earnings: Negative EPS due to losses (~$10B annually). Recovery expected.
      • Financials: High debt (~$50B), negative ROE. Cash burn improving.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett sold BA in 2020, wary of cyclicality and execution risks. Losses and debt are dealbreakers.
      • Concerns: Operational challenges, regulatory scrutiny.
  24. Walmart Inc. (WMT)
    • P/E Ratio: ~31.4.
    • Stock Price: ~$81.45.
    • Health Assessment:
      • Moat: Scale, cost leadership, logistics. Growing e-commerce presence.
      • Earnings: Stable, EPS ~$2.59. Margins thin but consistent.
      • Financials: Moderate debt, ROE ~20%. Cash flow ~$25B.
      • Buffett Fit: Buffett held WMT historically. Strong moat, but high P/E limits appeal.
      • Concerns: Margin pressure, e-commerce competition.

Ranked List (Buffett’s Preference)

Below is the ranking based on Buffett’s likely preferences, prioritizing strong moats, predictable earnings, reasonable valuations (P/E as a proxy), and margin of safety. I’ve grouped companies into tiers for clarity.

Tier 1: High-Quality, Attractive Valuation

  1. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Stable earnings, strong moat, low P/E (~16.7), and resilient healthcare demand. A quintessential Buffett pick.
  2. Bank of America (BAC): Scale, normalized earnings, and low P/E (~15.2). Buffett’s large stake reflects confidence.
  3. Sumitomo Corporation (SSUMY): Diversified, low P/E (~11.8), aligns with Buffett’s Japanese value investments.
  4. Mitsubishi Corporation (MITSUY): Similar to SSUMY, with low P/E (~12.5) and broad operations.
  5. Pfizer (PFE): Low P/E (~12.9), but declining earnings lower its rank. Still offers value.
  6. ExxonMobil (XOM): Low P/E (~13.6), strong cash flow, but commodity risks place it below non-cyclical firms.

Tier 2: Strong Businesses, Moderate Valuation

  1. Verizon Communications (VZ): Low P/E (~9.4), high yield, but high debt and slow growth limit appeal.
  2. AT&T (T): Similar to VZ, with low P/E (~9.7) but debt concerns.
  3. Lockheed Martin (LMT): Stable contracts, reasonable P/E (~19.8), but defense sector risks.
  4. OGE Energy (OGE): Predictable utility, P/E (~19.1), but smaller scale.
  5. Procter & Gamble (PG): Iconic moat, but P/E (~25.1) slightly high for Buffett.
  6. McDonald’s (MCD): Strong franchise model, but P/E (~25.8) reduces margin of safety.

Tier 3: Quality but Overpriced or Risky

  1. Apple (AAPL): Exceptional moat, Buffett favorite, but high P/E (~34.5) limits upside.
  2. Microsoft (MSFT): Dominant tech, strong growth, but P/E (~36.2) is steep.
  3. Walmart (WMT): Scale and stability, but P/E (~31.4) is high.
  4. GE HealthCare (GEHC): Stable healthcare, reasonable P/E (~23.4), but spinoff risks.

Tier 4: Speculative or Weak Fundamentals

  1. Ford (F): Low P/E (~6.8), but cyclicality and debt deter Buffett.
  2. GE Vernova (GEV): Unproven spinoff, limited data, high price.
  3. General Electric (GE): High P/E (~42.3), restructuring risks.
  4. Cameco (CCJ): High P/E (~46.8), commodity volatility.
  5. Intel (INTC): High P/E (~88.4), turnaround uncertainties.
  6. Tesla (TSLA): High P/E (~108.5), speculative AI bets.
  7. Palantir (PLTR): Extremely high P/E (~140.2), unproven profitability.
  8. Boeing (BA): Negative earnings, high debt, operational risks. Buffett’s exit in 2020 signals disfavor.

Notes and Disclaimers

  • Data Sources: P/E ratios and prices are approximate, sourced from Yahoo Finance, CompaniesMarketCap.com, and other financial sites as of May 6, 2025. Delays or discrepancies may exist.
  • Buffett’s Philosophy: Per, Buffett dismisses P/E as a primary valuation tool, focusing on intrinsic value (P/V ratio). Rankings reflect qualitative estimates of intrinsic value due to limited real-time cash flow data.
  • Missing Data: GEV’s P/E is unavailable due to its recent spinoff status. MITSUY and SSUMY are ADRs, with data less standardized.
  • Industry Context: Per, average P/E varies by sector (e.g., tech ~30, utilities ~15). Buffett adjusts expectations accordingly.
  • Investment Warning: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Consult a financial advisor before investing, as stock markets carry inherent risks.

If you’d like a deeper dive into any specific company, intrinsic value calculations (with assumptions), or additional Buffett criteria, please let me know!




Excellent, Grok! Yes please.... Would you rerun you passement and include the intrinsic value calculation with assumptions? Thank you for pointing this out. I would also appreciate your buy/sell/hold recommendation based upon the data you have gathered. Thank You, Grok!

Thank you for the follow-up! I’ll rerun the assessment of the listed securities, incorporating intrinsic value calculations with explicit assumptions and providing buy/sell/hold recommendations based on the data. The analysis will follow Warren Buffett’s investment criteria, as outlined previously, and maintain the same ranking methodology. Each security will include its current P/E ratio, stock price, intrinsic value estimate, and a recommendation, ordered by Buffett’s likely preference. The response will be concise, focusing on key metrics and actionable insights, with the artifact containing the detailed calculations and recommendations.

Methodology Recap

  • Buffett’s Criteria: Emphasizes intrinsic value (discounted future cash flows), economic moat, consistent earnings, quality management, margin of safety, and strong financials (low debt, high ROE, robust cash flow).
  • Intrinsic Value Calculation: I’ll use a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, as it aligns with Buffett’s focus on future cash flows. The formula is:Intrinsic Value=t=1nFCFt(1+WACC)t+Terminal Value(1+WACC)nwhere FCFt is free cash flow in year tWACC is the weighted average cost of capital, and Terminal Value=FCFn+1WACCg (using perpetual growth rate g).
  • Assumptions:
    • Free Cash Flow (FCF): Based on trailing twelve months (TTM) FCF from recent financials (sourced from Yahoo Finance, Alpha Spread, or similar).
    • Growth Rate: 5-year FCF growth rate estimated from historical trends and industry outlook (conservative to align with Buffett’s skepticism of aggressive forecasts).
    • Perpetual Growth Rate: Set at 2% (approximating long-term GDP growth, per Buffett’s conservative approach).
    • WACC: Estimated using industry averages (8–12%), adjusted for company-specific debt/equity ratios and risk. Where precise data is unavailable, I’ll use a default 10% WACC.
    • Time Horizon: 5 years for explicit FCF projections, followed by terminal value.
    • Margin of Safety: A 20% discount is applied to intrinsic value for buy recommendations, ensuring undervaluation.
  • P/E and Price: Sourced from Yahoo Finance or CompaniesMarketCap.com as of May 6, 2025.
  • Buy/Sell/Hold:
    • Buy: Stock price < 80% of intrinsic value (margin of safety).
    • Hold: Stock price within ±20% of intrinsic value.
    • Sell: Stock price > 120% of intrinsic value.
  • Ranking: Ordered by Buffett’s preference, prioritizing strong moats, predictable earnings, and undervaluation.
  • Limitations: DCF is sensitive to assumptions (growth rates, WACC). For companies with limited data (e.g., GEV), estimates are less precise. ADRs (MITSUY, SSUMY) face currency risks. Recommendations are not investment advice; consult a financial advisor.

Artifact: Detailed Analysis and Recommendations

Intrinsic Value and Recommendations for Securities
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