Wednesday, September 21, 2016

20160921 - So the BoJ Promises to work on the Yield Curve and the FOMC...

does nothing.....




MENTAL STATE: I can do this….    Simply wait for the the congestion to settle out, for the confluence to kick in, then make the trade….

As the process gel's, my products that help me think and see are shaping up....

MONTHLY: Eight straight months of rally.    I managed to print out a Monthly MP plot showing the ES only making it back to the gap from 9/9-9/10.   If the ES can climb back over 2150, then the rally is intact, fundamentals be damned.  The NQ must have a different mindset as it’s Monthly MP still shows a strong P formation.
Scanning across the 3x3, all of the monthlys are framing long….   This initially raised question (i.e. ZB vs YM) until I found out that bonds actually track equities during period of deflation so there….



WEEKLY

The weekly does in fact show bonds framing lower.   Examination of the Equities shows that ES actually rotated lower momentarily.  Otherwise, EVERYTHING is ticking higher…

The MP version of the weekly better shows the resistance the ES must get through before the Bulls can stampede.   Also, the history the NQ has had at All Time Highs is more akin to grazing Bulls wandering slowly north with very little volume.   We will continue to monitor…





DAILY
The daily chart better shows the horizontal S/R level we have with the ES at 2155’ish that we gotta deal with.

Now “this” chart is interesting, showing that we are “still” framing lower in YM, ES, CL, NG, GC.   I believe Mr. Dow would say that the tide is long but the intermediate waves are short…



MP View
ThinkorSwim doesn’t let me see the story like this one showing the NQ in Zero G whitespace and the ES with what might be a cement ceiling above.   We will have to see…



YESTERDAY'S Price Action:
What i can’t believe is how we waited all week for this. In the morning, I had some issues with Price being either above or below the SMA 200 creating ambiguous entry and not clearing up until after the initial balance period (blue bar) which was about ½ to ¾ the typical Initial balance range   I was  able to sim some honest trades using a confluence of SMA & HVA & Charlie’s methods that was very gratifying - I’m feeling good with this setup and looking forward to taking it live.

Price during the morning was very mechanical and morning volume was 75% norm.

Then at 14:00, oil made a move that coincided with the FOMC decision for no change…..   Funny….    I score today’s moved as methodically planned with final volume at 140% versus masses celebrating wildly in the streets.




  • VOLUME - Overnight was norminal, morning was at 75%, final at 145%

  • POSITION/STRUCTURE - Settled nicely within the MP structure.

  • Runaway / Excess / Spikes - Yes…   The overnight lows had a strong spike off defined support.  During the afternoon rally (meandering bull migration north), the MP structure was very weak and appears vulnerable to being revisited in the days ahead.

  • Key levels reached - Defined support levels were used to trampoline from.  The NQ is back into white space (expect sluggish action there).  The ES rally halted at the 9/9-9/10 gap

  • Pivots / Charlie’s Charts - I’m really debating throwing pivots overboard and using the other defined visual levels

  • WHERE IS THE COMPOSITE POC? ES has the Barnacle Island directly overhead while the NQ is in white space.

  • MP POC/VA/LOD/LOD Feature relationships (higher, lower?) - Well discussed already.
  • TEMPO - Based on volume and location alone, one would call this a strong move.   I’m thinking it more of a lumbering move.


END OF DAY CARRYOVER SUMMARY:   

I think we are where we need to be….   The NQ is in white space and I’m suspecting that it will be allowed to extend the Barnacle island higher while the ES is “finally” situated in an LVA right beneath it’s Barnacle Island that I’ve felt needing filling for several days now.   While out of step, this may actually work….