Monday, October 17, 2016

During This Week's Monday Meeting....

Monday’s Action:

See prior analyses  - I called it…..

NQ in Balance
After last weeks effort to converge, today, we sat there in balance with volume between 17-20% below average and less than Friday’s volume - We were in balance.   

ES in Balance

Today is Monday and Big Money was in meetings wondering what to do next while price filled in MP anomalies from two days back (Thursday) leaving a relatively clean day today - Time to move on from here?

Price Action

Price action continues to follow OBV lower.   However, the ES is finding support off off a major trend line.   Observe the numerous settlement prices within close vicinity

For both the ES & the NQ, the trend toward the end of the day was a pathetic long - Suggesting going long at the opening.

NQ Price Action in Balance
ES Price Action In Balance


Examining the 30 minute charts with the large lot volume filtering:

The NQ had heavy large lot selling (yellow) in the morning and afternoon with a brief large lot buying TPO at 11:30 and beginning at 14:00

If I were large NQ money buying the morning, I would have taken the 11:30 opportunity as a markup to liquidate in the afternoon.   Heck, I might have even been the person selling in the morning.   The marking up beginning at 14:00 might be in preparation for another liquidation in this area soon?   The net difference in the NQ between buyers and sellers (72941 vs 73320) is barely 400 contracts (0.5%) - A balanced day

If I were large ES money buying in the morning, and unable to lift price above the SMA 200 (yellow snake), I would’ve decided going long was not an option and sold out during the afternoon.   This would agree with the notion (see below) that the likely path of least resistance may be going short. The net difference in the ES between buyers and sellers (517068 vs. 522059) is barely 1%. - A balanced day.

For both the ES & the NQ, the trend toward the end of the day was long - Suggesting going long at the opening.

NQ & ES Volume Action


If I were big ES Money:

1) I’d like to stay where I’m at building support in the 2115-2135 Basecamp

2) I may have to pack up and move high a) because I’m finding major trendline support and b), I’m far from SMA 200

3) I may have to had lower because a) the path of least resistance is lower & b) the OBV is telling me to sell.  If price crashes (unlikely with the fed control) I’ve marked entry points where slow-mo entries are likely.

Regardless, I have a feel for the terrain.

If I were big NQ Money:

I like it where I’m at…

If anything, I may visit the MP and fill in adjacent low areas above and below.   Also, I can’t keep ignoring the OBV selloff forever.  Tis earnings season…   We’ll see...