Thursday, October 20, 2016

A New Tempo to Reckon?

Summary

Some interesting movements today.

On the big picture, today's story remained the same with NQ filling in the LVA and ES filling in  it’s HVA

Daily Chart showing NQ continuing to consolidate and the ES in a weak position below its SMA200.

Big Picture Action


MP View confirms...
MP Action - NQ filling in LVA
MP Action - ES filling in LVA


The NQ and ES are showing some range bounding - keep in mind for possible reversals or breakouts tomorrow...
MP Structure respecting visual references.   Watch for reversals and breakouts.




Volume Action.   

The Round Bottom did not materialize today, in fact, large lot sellers were continued liquidating today.   Price action made very little attempt to break above horizontal resistance.

Volume was higher than in prior days. If large lot interests are selling, who in the world keeps buying? Or as Casio would say, "this pig is floating...."

Two Weeks of 30-Minute Data





PRIOR DAY TRADE REVIEW:
I stayed up late the night before drinking scotch and watching the debates.   Did not see it this morning…

I don't typically do what-if trade reviews but in light of the seeming stagnate action, it seems appropriate for me to see if I'm missing something - Perhaps I am?
Post Day - Possible Entry Review.


Close to identical Trades between the two markets:

Time
08:06 Premarket Positioning (No visual trigger but possibly a great robot entry)
10:26 H&S Top
10:49 FT Resistance - Short / or POC reversal short
11:58 SMA All Aboard Cross Long
12:45 POC Reversal
13:56 FT Support Long


Summary: Despite the seemingly inactive day, there were textbook signals present.  This was encouraging.  I suspect with the large institutions that have recently reported higher trading profit with fewer traders and with price essentially going nowhere, the “tempo” of the market has to have changed.  

I have noticed that moves no long coincide with certain TPOs as they have in the past (i.e. the 1030 ProFunds Guggenheim return to open comes to mind as does the German and London Open).   Perhaps this is temporary since I’ve begun collecting notes.    

I’m also now suspecting the use of the On Balance Volume Indicator with these HFT’s that can repeatedly “sell (accumulate)”, mark up with little volume expended, and resell.  An interesting article in Bloomberg on broken indicators  (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-19/wall-street-sees-graveyard-of-broken-indicators-in-reform-s-wake)   brings this thought to mind.



END OF DAY CARRYOVER SUMMARY:   

Quit staying up late drinking scotch and watching presidential debates - With the possibilities of an evolving market shaping up, it’s time to pay close attention...

Thought 1 - Volume filtering is showing large lot selling, yet prices remain higher.   If I were big money, I wouldn't want prices to drop if I had to liquidate lots of inventory.   

Thought 2 - If I were big money getting stuck buying all this selling that somebody is cramming down our throats, I would like to mark up price so I can unload with a gain.

Thought 3 - We are in a purgatory where volume is simply being shuffled in a loop creating trading profits while the market goes nowhere.    


To Be Continued...