Opening Bell, Checklist

OPENING BELL
"All hell breaks loose"   C. Evans

Stage 0

• News / Situational Awareness?
• Confluence  (ZB, GC, CL, YM, etc)
• Lot Size (stronger long term money vs weaker short term money)
• Meandering elephants
• A Grinding Market is a confident market

POSITION

• Near the edge low for a short covering (go long) (return to center)
• Near the edge high for a long liquidation (go short) (return to center)

DIRECTION

• Position from Yesterday’s Settle
• End-of-day (VOLUME) trend tends to continue into first 10 minutes of the next trading day <dunno>
• Premarket entry / residual orders
• Read SMA’s
• High Confident Markets will not trade through the open but will continue

VOLUME

TRADES

• Premarket Initial Balance Move
• Initial Balance Move
• Trading off of tails
• -- If in one day low, market tests prior poor  LOD, then half back, LOOK SHORT
• -- Then if tests two day low, then go long

Stage 1 - Trade of Day - In balance rules.  

• (Market may slightly extend the range in either direction, stays in balance, patience is in order)
• Market explores upside breakout and is met by aggressive sellers; prices fail to be accepted above the breakout. Fade the price probe failure—the potential target is for rotation to the opposite end of balance. (short term money)
• Market explores to the upside; higher prices receive the unexpected response and attract even more buyers. Higher prices are accepted, breakout is successful. Go with price acceptance in the direction of breakout.
• (beware trap!!!   Long overnight, quick Liquidation Break, then Long again!!!!!!!!!)
• {rebalance via Long Liquidation Break or Short Covering Rally}

• Market explores downside breakout and is met by aggressive buyers; prices fail to be accepted below the breakout. Fade the price probe failure—the potential target is for rotation to the opposite end of balance. (short term)
• Market explores to the downside; lower prices receive the unexpected response and attract even more sellers. Lower prices are accepted, breakout is successful. Go with price acceptance in the direction of breakout
• (beware trap!!!   Short overnight, quick Short Covering Rally, then Short again!!!!!!!!!)
• {rebalance via Long Liquidation Break or Short Covering Rally}

Trade of Day - w/ gap

• Test Prior Day High/Low via gap fill (Liquidation Break or Covering Rally)
• if Respects Prior Day High/Low (closes gap), then (Short Term Money & rebalance)
• if gap close fails, then Strong Long Term Money kicking in (gap continues)

Stage 2 - Long Term Money

• If open long/short and market doesn’t care, keeps going
• Prior week references
• Distant MP features

DECLARE Day Type (TA)
1. Open & Trend (Also Known as a #1 Day)
2. Open-Test & Trend (Also Known as a #2 Day) ~ 10 minutes to prove
3. Open-Test & Rejection (Also Known as a #3 Day) ~1 hour to prove If rejection is previous day VA, target is opposite VA
4. Two-Sided Open (Also Known as a #4 Day) ~ 2 hours to prove