2025-08-15 Prompt

Refined Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) noarmalized on a $1M portfolio to ensure retirement stability, targeting ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66, with max drawdown <20% and recovery within 18 months post-10% crash. Risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” ethos, Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy", an eye for Buffet's "Hair Curler Event",prioritizing the U.S. debt crisis ($36T, 120% debt-to-GDP, buying power erosion to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030) and inflation (4–5% by 2026) as key risks, while allowing flexibility to explore contrarian opportunities, geopolitical shifts, and emerging trends. Prioritize income stability, debt/inflation hedges, and contrarian buys. Explore and suggest innovative hedges or growth opportunities (e.g., AI regulation impacts, domestic supply, BRICS, trade pacts). Leverage prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day, stress tests, Board of Wise Minds, including Paul and Johnson on debt discipline). Emphasize tax-free reallocations, diversified allocations (equities, funds, international, income, growth), and low-maintenance monitoring. Assess political and domestic will for debt reduction (deficit-to-GDP <3.5% by 2029) and web sentiment on short-term vs. long-term fixes, monitoring progress toward Dalio's 4% shift. 2. Analysis Framework During a poll of the Board, there appeared to be a broad concensus that the factors we are looking at has a fit in Ray Dalio's Big Cycle Thesis. Let us attempt to use Dalio's thesis as a convergence point for our vast discussions of interdependant forces as we follow our Paranoid Survive ethos, be ever watchful and keeping an eye on future "Hair Curler Events" and "Perfect Storm Alignments", and leavewith room for exploratory insights: Debt Crisis (55% likelihood, 2026–2028): Track U.S. debt ($36T), margin debt (+7% Q2 2025), debt-to-GDP (>130%), and monetization risks. Assess buying power erosion ($40,000 to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030 at 5–7% inflation). Evaluate political will (e.g., Paul’s Six Penny Plan, Johnson’s OBBB growth) for 3.5% deficit-to-GDP by 2029 ($1.2T cuts, 0.5% tariff equivalent). Explore alternative debt scenarios (e.g., de-dollarization, CBO projections). Inflation (60% likelihood, 4–5% by 2026): Monitor tariffs, oil (>$85/barrel), OBBB ($2.7T deficit). Assess income impact ($40,000 to $36,000–$38,000 real by 2026). Mitigate with SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78), TIPS, gold (1%). Explore inflation drivers (e.g., supply chain shocks). Portfolio Management: Cap single-stock exposure at 6% and sector at 15%. Use tax-free reallocations (e.g., MSFT to SCHD, VBIL to VCIT). Track cycles (debt, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector) and volume signals (institutional/retail flow, volatility) via Wyckoff, RSI, Fibonacci, and web article sentiment. DeepSearch high-risk holdings (higher liklihood of significant drawdown), debt/inflation triggers, and emerging trends. Exploratory Lens: Allow flexibility to identify contrarian buy and innovative hedges with associated trigger signals. Conventions: Specify time frames (e.g., 20-day, quarterly, annual) for correlation purposes with others. Use intrinsic value, Fibonacci, support/resistance for targets. Flag thresholds (e.g., DXY <95, oil >$85). Anonymize portfolio to avert tracking. 3. Punch List High Priority (>70%): Debt Crisis: Monitor margin debt, debt-to-GDP, political will (X sentiment, CBO). Buy VTI, gold (1%). Inflation: Track tariffs, oil. Buy SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78). UNH ($282–$290, target $426.48, Rising Phoenix, contrarian buy, Berkshire recent stake), INTC ($18, target $45, Lip-Bu Tan turnaround, US buy in talk). Watch List (50–70%): TSLA (trim $450, DOJ/SEC risks, new product rollouts). AAPL ($190, target $230). F, WAB (tariff risks, 2026 tax-loss). BA (Rising Phoenix) WBA (contrarian buys). Events: OBBB ($2.7T deficit), Genius Act (INTC), power demands (XOM, CCJ), Perfect Storm (2026). Stress Tests: Debt Crisis: Magnitude, portfolio impact. Inflation: Realized, projected, expected erosion, timeframe. SEC News: Insider trading, governances, declarations, investigations. Rising Phoenix Candidates: Equities out there that has fallen recently on hard times and in the process of turn arounds, to be considered (e.g. Undervalued equities with >30% upside, clear catalysts like GE's turnaround). 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, present cycles, volume signals (e.g., institutional accumulation, retail FOMO), and alignment with WPS triggers. Address key tensions (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy on panic, equity cycle, permanent member. Align with high-volume accumulation phases. Scrutinize volume triggers (20-Day and 3-month volume profies) Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), systemic banking risks, permanent member. Monitor institutional volume flows in financials for support. Monitors FINRA for institutional outflows in financials. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Track institutional volume in VYMI for BRICS-related accumulation. Monitors geopolitcal escalations. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Monitor bond fund volume (e.g., VCIT) for rate-driven flows. Suze Orman (a ranking member for views on retirement): Known for consumer-focues financial planning and retirement strategies. Monitors retail investor panic, provides retail volatility triggers, and monitors X-Sentiment. Ray Dalio (a ranking member, Theorist & Fund Management): Debt cycles, BRICS expertise. Monitor retail Bitcoin volume, institution/retail volume flows Philippe Laffont (specialist): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech, retail options volatility). Align with tech volume spikes. Leon Cooperman (specialist): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength on low-volume breakouts, energy overweight). Align with institutional accumulation. Cathie Wood (specialist): Known for disruptive tech investments) Lyn Alden (specialist): Recognized for macro insights on debt cycles, currency trends, and energy markets. Greg Lippmann (specialist): Recognized in the movie, the Big Short for spotting flawed situations and good track record. Stanley Druckenmiller (specialist) Mohamed El-Erian (specialist): EM Specialist to deepen BrICS and VYMI Analysis Larry Fink (specialist): Blackrock Co-Founder, For Climate/ESG) to tackle energy & geopolitical oil risks, adding a sustainability lens to debates. Gurbir Grewal (specialist): SEC enforcement expertise, focusing on AI-related misleading disclosures and governance accountability. Monitor 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, and Forms 3/4 for WPS holdings (see below) to flag regulatory risks (Medium 50–70% likelihood, 5–15% drawdown). Prioritize review of governance stability and insider selling across all holdings. Align with retail options volatility and institutional volume flows (20-day). Senator Rand Paul (legislature guest) Representative Michael Johnson (legislature guest) Scott Bessent (Treasury guest) Russ Vought (OMB Director, guest) John Thune (Senate GOP Leadership, guest) New Candidates: The present size of the board at this time appears to be adequate and manageable. Special "guests" may be called upon to appear when special emphasis is usefule Under the portfolio owner’s thoughtful guidance, five Subcommittees—Retirement, Domestic Agenda, Foreign Affairs, Stability and Income, and Growth and Hedges—work together to safeguard and grow the WPS. Convened as needed for scenarios like tariffs or BRICS shifts, these Subcommittees draw on the collective wisdom of select advisors, with the Retirement Subcommittee leading to protect retiree goals, while others step forward as challenges arise. Advisors’ roles adapt to each scenario, ensuring a vibrant balance of income, stability, and growth. Ad-hoc meetings may be called for by the CEO for special topics and Exploratory Flexibility. 5. Outputs - 10 page allocation. Portfolio Rollup: Major movement,Volume flows,recent impacts, X sentiment, political will. Tax Strategy: Tax-free reallocations. Risk/Watch Areas: Liklihood, underlying conditions, drawdown & recovery projections. Advisor Rundown: Allow each Advisor to make comments on recent events to in-line with their background strengths. Allow either a concurring "second" or a "healthy tension challenge" by the other advisors. If a challenge is received, the original Advisor is allowed a followup. Discussion points to address with Financial Advisor (Triggers, Watch Items, Recommended DeepSearches). If there is a point-counter point situation, request that Grok suggests one side or the other in-line with the WPS. The "Grok" assessment: This is where Groks ability to mentioned its reasoning abilities, coupling the vast spread of inputs, and coming up with nuggests which Grok excels at. We have found that Grok tends to cram all of it's assessments into a single paragraph that's jammed packed and hard to follow - Please provide these Grok assessments in bullet form to facilitate future discussions with my financial advisor. 6. Evolving prompt tailoring Streamlined Focus: Reduced detailed cycle metrics (e.g., removed specific SMA thresholds) to prioritize debt crisis (buying power erosion) and inflation (income impact), allowing exploration of emerging risks (e.g., AI regulation, BRICS). Exploratory Flexibility: Added “exploratory lens” to encourage contrarian buys, geopolitical opportunities, and innovative hedges without rigid constraints. Preserving Exploratory Room: The prompt allows the Board to propose novel strategies (e.g., crypto hedges via IBIT, new sector bets) and adapt to shifting X sentiment or geopolitical events (e.g., BRICS pacts, tariff pauses), while anchoring on debt and inflation risks. DeepSearches remain flexible for emerging trends, ensuring your WPS stays dynamic. Portfolio Snapshot (Normalized to a $1M porfolio) 8/15/2025 Recently Harvested: BAC, PLTR, TSLA, MSFT, XOM, WMT Note: All targeted harvests have been accompished early. Tax-free Reallocatable VMFXX 0.87% VIGAX 5.27% VBIL 0.31% VCLT 0.00% VCRB 8.06% VWOB 1.06% VYMI 1.11% VTI 3.15% BAC 0.36% PLTR 1.78% BA 0.74% FMFXX 0.09% TEMWX 2.86% 2025 Target Date Fund 13.10% LMT ESOP 9.51% Large Cap Index 6.08% Small Mid Cap Index 2.02% LMT - Company Stock 4.08% Global Equities Fund 2.40% GE 0.87% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.52% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.41% UNH 0.35% USAIX 2.90% USTEX 1.10% SWVXX 3.15% VCIT 9.52% SCHD 2.56% Taxable holdings AAPL 0.75% CCJ 0.47% F 0.09% INTC 1.42% JNJ 0.89% MSFT 5.72% OGE 0.23% PFE 0.38% MTSUY 0.49% SSUMY 0.47% T 1.69% TSLA 0.50% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.82% XOM 1.28%