Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Taylor Fail

Linda Bradford Raschke mentioned in one of her lectures, to make an educated guess where the market would go the following day - You'll know immediately when you're wrong.   James Dalton would say to have scenarios for long/neutral/short on hand.....

Today, my trend forecasts fell apart on Gold, Oil & Natural Gas - A broader examination is warranted...

Natural Gas
  • Did not continue it’s trend short as expected
  • NG was forming a barnacle island lower yesterday
  • Trapped buying wicks were revisited allowing plenty of time for trapped buyers to cover
  • Price returned long to the Contract POC!!!!
  • A zoom out performed
  • Reacted to a supply/demand level beyond two contracts ago!!!
  • Outside supply/demand bases brought into the picture


  • Seasonal rally clearly failed today
  • Price probed lower, taking out long stops
  • Volume showing deliberate selloff
  • Psychological historical levels identified for go low scenarios


  • At an important level
  • (Bullish) Could revisit historical key S/R Levels with the trend
  • (Neutral) Could fill in LVA
  • (Bearish) Could return to composite POCs