Friday, January 13, 2017

Commitment of Traders Review 1/12/2017

Over the past couple of years as the ES has flattened, there appears to be less open interest.
Long: Managed Money and Asset Managers
Short: Dealers and Small Speculators

Large Speculators & Asset Managers have been steadily reducing their long positions
Dealers have been reducing their short positions
The pattern appears reverse of the 2016 rally

2016 appears to have been an interesting year with the run up in gold and back down low
A bottom in gold prices is appearing
During this cycle, prices correlated with long holdings by Large Speculators & Managed Money
Inverse of Large Speculators & Managed Money were the Producers and Swap Dealers
Gold is at a key price 1198, we need to pay attention to what happens here

Prices are following what Long holdings of large Speculators/Managed Money
A price bottom has appeared
Large Speculators/Managed Money are increasing long holdings

Natural Gas
Price bottom has appeared
Price at key support/resistance range
Managed Money has gone from a short to long position
Commercials inversely selling

After recovering from last years price spike, soybean prices are climbing
Managed Money and Large Speculators increasing long positions

Spring Wheat (MW)

AGWEB reports producers still sitting on old wheat, acreage growing wheat at 10 year low
Managed Money and Large Speculators increasing long positions.

Wheat (ZW)

Prices continue to fall.
Managed money continues to reduce long commitments