Saturday, December 31, 2016

DOW (YM) END OF YEAR REVIEW - 2016




2016 Began with an extended correction (in my opinion) to allow Approved Participants the courtesy of reconciling business necessary to halt the prior China Meltdown and solidifying a base around 18,000.

With the uncertain elections conducted in 2016, a prolonged consolidation position was developed, again around the 18,000 level.

BREXIT and the U.S. Presidential election provided for (in my opinion), a controlled pullback and "finally" a chance for price to break above the 18,000 High Volume Peak, short of the 20,000 level.

Barring any surprises with the new U.S. President and the upcoming European elections, I'm anticipating price to continue filling out support around 19.000 (with a possible retest of 18,000) on the market's own merits and not that based on Quantitative Easing hyper inflating price.


On a side note, the major houses reported earlier in the year a reduction in the number of traders (by/to?) approximately 30% of the prior trader base and replacing them with computers.  Later in 2016, these houses reported a 50% increase in profit from trading - To me, this means the Price Action  cadence has changed.   In 2017, watch for appearances of algorithmic trading campaigns on the multiday and intraday timeframes.

2017 (in my opinion) should be be a lively year.




View of The Long Term Dow - Monthly Time Frame