Wednesday, October 12, 2016

An Independant Verification

Chris Ciovacco writes in an interesting article, "How Helpful Are 2 Consecutive S&P 500 Inside Weeks? " in Seeking Alpha, where he comments on how we've recently encountered two consecutive inside weeks - An infrequent signal...

Mr. Ciovacco was describing action on the SPY and in his analyses,  zooms out between 6-10 months.

Out of curiosity, I examined Mr. Ciovacco's findings on the ES market, and using eyeball methods, was able to identify two consecutive inside weeks in 2000, 2008 and the recent one in 2016 - I could not locate the one he identifies in June 2007 (perhaps due to the different market, different data feed, etc.)

In the comment section of this article, "brassb" pointed out that 2000, 2008 & 2016 are election years and in other readings, I recall markets tend to "clam up" when the outcome of the upcoming election is unclear (much as we have this year).

However, zoom out to a 20 year view,  striking price action follows the 2000 and 2008 trigger....

See it?