Monday, September 26, 2016

Commodities


Over lunch, I checked out a sampling of commodities to get an idea of the action.

It appears falling commodity prices have halted with new points of control developing suggesting the higher prices of yesteryear were perhaps too high to begin with?

It also looks like we missed a good buying signal for Silver earlier this year.

I'll be back from time to time to update this section some more...





Gold - GC



Over the twenty year long haul, it doesn't appear that gold may be moving much in recent history. Since so many nations are tied to gold, it would make sense that calm gold prices means a happy world of nations regardless if the nations are really happy or not...

However, since it's so crazy valuable, any tiny move it makes is for big coin making closer look interesting...

Interesting is that gold is at it's 20 year point of Control and within its #1 main high volume area - In this generation, gold appears to be at it's fair price.



Zooming in for a closer look on the 3 year window, gold is near the high of it's High Volume Area meaning a liquidation back to the mean would be natural.

I guess that means too that anything driving price outside of this fair value would not be natural?



Finally, zoom in on the 1 year view shows that gold is actually creeping higher recently, finding support below and constrained at the top supporting the conspiracy theory that something big will have to break gold out it's current price zone




What to do? For a long term investment, I'm not looking too much into gold. Intraday trading of gold is till viable.





Natural Gas - NG



Many companies producing and transporting Natural Gas got hit hard during the recent fall in oil & gas. I can see if natural gas were to regain acceptance in the upper distribution, companies on the brink may be able to find new life and might be obtained at a discount. Otherwise, if natural gas stays down in this lower distribution, a few more bankruptcies of natural gas producers may be in store.

Here is a 1 year view - We are at the 1 year high for NG. Either it'll stay in bounds or rally to the next block of fair value higher (as seen in the 3 year view)




A three year view of NG, that we are at the three year POC and at the edge of value, either we stay here or bounce to $4 from 2.89 (essentially double) as we are at the 1 year high...






Oil - CL

Many companies producing oil & gas got clobbered in 2016. An examination seemed appropriate.

Oil has created a new 20 year POC and we are at it now





Zooming in a bit - 1 Year Oil with  30 day MPs - We are definitely centering around what appears to be the accepted value. At this price, it may be possible to perform examination of companies to see if they can operate at this price level.


30 day Oil MP - While the average price of oil appears to be settling, there are still opportunities for intra day trading.




Palladium - PA

Steady at it new value area from the past 5 years



High Grade Copper -  HG

Copper is used everywhere. It's also appearing to have been quite volatile in price. Over the past five years, its volume has been increasing steadily.

Also, price settling around a new Point of Control




Silver si
Rats.... Missed the bounce at the beginning of the year…



Live Cattle - LE
Declining since 2014 - Should be a great time to stock up on steaks?



ZW Wheat - ZW
Falling since 2013



Corn KC
Steady for last two years. I'm reckoning that it's price might have went crazy with the ethanol frenzy but that's simply a guess. Will follow up...