Friday, September 9, 2016

9/11 Recap Action - Plan for 9/14


Preparing for 20160912 - Monday


Friday, traders rolled over the ES, YM and NQ from the the September to December contract.   Data gaps started appearing an the Bluewater platform late yesterday and early this morning creating reluctance to participate - Data gaps did not appear on the Think Or Swim platform.

The give away for the day was when the markets were unable to close the gap, a sign that Long Term Money was in the room, could care less what the Brokers were trying to do, and took the herd south.  Note how price stagnated before bouncing off the SMA 200.   I believe this was the grace period Long Term Money gave to the world that they were heading lower (and for the short term brokers to exit their long positions).    I’ve no idea if this was actually the case but something I would like to believe. (reference: https://vimeo.com/18743518 for how to handle gaps)


About that time, I was immersed with the tech service call - Not a good day to miss out.

After a summer of building support at the Barnacle Islands, yesterday’s analyses suggested the move of the day would be long back into the composite POC of the Barnacle Island.   In the words of Linda Bradford Raschke, it is always important to have a plan for the day / move of the day and if you’re wrong, you’ll know soon enough and can go about coming up with the correct plan - Boy did I call today wrong expecting continued consolidation when in fact today was a HUGE Liquidation break with volume at nearly double the average.    

See the results below….
MONTHLY:
(Long) Might have to squint to see it but so far, this month is clearly starting off as a selloff month with plenty of range to fall before tripping the Parabolic SAR into a rotation short.



WEEKLY:
(Short) ES has fallen below it’s parabolic SAR and rotated short
The YM and NQ are both within close range of rotating below the Parabolic SAR thresholds and halfback levels all while in some cases, have begun breaking dynamic support levels.
All three will be testing halfback, dynamic SMAs and prior swing highs


DAILY:
We have some serious rotation taking place on the daily timeframes with price breaking below the parabolic SAR and now interacting with the dynamic s/r(SMA)

Halfback levels did not hold suggesting I drew them from incorrect references…   hmmm…



Friday's Price Action:.

The Liquidation Break started at 0200 with German open and picked up speed at 0730.  A single sell order would have been nice for ES, NQ & likely the YM.  There were 2-3 honest SMA 200 bounce entries in the NQ and none in the ES.

The give away for the day was when the markets were unable to close the gap, a sign that Long Term Money was in the room, could care less what the Brokers were trying to do, and took the herd south. About that time, I was immersed with the tech service call - Not a good day to miss out.

The ES was able to repair a gap a region of single print prices that were left in late spring when price ran away long. I noted back then that we we be back - Need to start believing myself more....

Both ES and NQ were able to bridge the span with the Barnacle Island built this summer and the Base camp built during the spring.



The MP left today was very thin and spindly. I'll need to dig back but it was as spindly heading down as it was when it rallied a few months ago (need to double check). The NQ had about 5-7 distributions while the ES had several - both markets were littered with single prints.   To me, this means that the market has laid  down the chalk on where it expects to trade for the 4th quarter of 2017 - which presently appears to be the span between the barnacle islands built this summer and the base camp built during spring.


Here is the same play but using the Think or Swim view to get a larger perspective on Friday's move.   Very interesting was the pullback on the ES was to recognized defined S/R & Fib levels.....




  • VOLUME today was about near double as the day progressed. The range was way above average..

  • POSITION/STRUCTURE - long and stretched out….   Had legs today…

  • Runaway / Excess / Spikes - The elephants marched south on a mission

  • Key levels reached - The elephants bridged the price between the summer barnacle island near the all time highs and the Base Camp built this spring right after the 2016Q1 correction.

  • Pivots / Charlie’s Charts - Were pretty much left behind and gave way too….

  • MP POC/VA/LOD/LOD Feature relationships (higher, lower?) See above comment on the elephant herd bridging the between the Barnacle Island and the Base camp

  • TEMPO - Was clearly the Baby Elephant Walk crushing villages that stood in their way

  • Rotation / One day reversal / Key reversal Day - Target destination at other end of range - maybe next week

  • Lower closes and lower lows project the probability of lower prices 85 to 88 percent of the time. This trend usually lasts for three days before reversing. - well, we are clearly into day 1-2….

  • End-of-day trend (last hour) tends to continue into the first 10 minutes of the next trading day (?). I’m gonna think about this over the weekend, perhaps next week, we start the meandering path back from where we came or we continue to march south…   Dunno…



PRIOR DAY TRADE REVIEW:

No trades - was very distracted today rebuilding my wife's laptop

Did see a couple SMA bounces short on the NQ (not the ES)



Will follow up on Monday during the premarket...

Note to self - start getting up earlier.....