Monday, September 12, 2016

20160912 Monday Post Day Review

20160912 Monday Post Day review (Setup for: 20160913 - Tuesday)



MENTAL STATE: Today was the first official day of Z16.  I waited all day for the tech support call that never happened.  In the meantime, kept myself busy yet annoyed.


MONTHLY: <defined long>
Last Friday’s rollover pullback could not put a dent into the monthly timeframe rally


WEEKLY <defined “on-the-line”>
Friday’s rotation that crushed the trend has borderlined the Parabolic SAR trip points.  Pullbacks were awfully close to half back.   Maybe time to project extension?


DAILY <defined short>
Thanks to last Friday, we have rotated and theoretically going short.   
However, we appear to be bouncing long off  SMA 80 & 100 on the ES and NQ
The YM might be possibly bouncing off SMA 50
Coincidentally, observe fib levels for grins….


YESTERDAY'S Price Action:
The first official day of the new contract.
Note to self - Start paying better attention for opportunities during the four roll overs.
I believe I would call Friday and today an combined two-day reversal / a zig-zag combo


VOLUME - impressive
Overnight volume was 230%, Daily volume was 180%


POSITION/STRUCTURE


In my opinion, this was a very well behaved price move.  Price range was clearly observed to span between the recent all time high for resistance and support at the levels demonstrated over the past year (the highs pre China Meltdown about a year ago, the highs pre 2016Q1 Correction about 3 quarters ago, and the highs pre BREXIT controlled  touch & go about 1 quarter ago)


What this means to me is that we’ve a pretty well defined contract range to operate within for the next quarter.   I also understand that while the market priced in Clinton as a president, the market does not know yet how to price in Trump as a President.   I can’t do anything about this so will merely muse on this in the months ahead.




Runaway / Excess / Spikes - Close examination will find very very strong Buying tails in the NQ & ES at the opening.   To me this means we are through doing business down at these session low levels on less something very bad happens. On a side note, the speed which this tail was put in, to me, is a sign of a short covering rally.


Key levels reached - During the globex, the low was an even 2100 which would have made for a very nice entry point to buy long.   The turnaround point was 4625 which was not as fancy of a number.  Both globex markets turned around at composite HVA’s….   


Today’s highs


Today’s lows


TEMPO - Methodical throughout the day.  A bus driver was clearly in control


Rotation / One day reversal / Key reversal Day - Depending how one interprets this, we could be heading for all time highs now that we’ve gotten this zig/zag out of the way, Or we may simply mull here for a few months.   We’ll see….


End-of-day trend (last hour) tends to continue into the first 10 minutes of the next trading day (?) - I’m still having trouble believing this one.  It appears as if price achieved its mission by 14:35 and simply sat for the rest of the day for everybody to catch up.  I won’t be watching for this tomorrow.

PRIOR DAY TRADE REVIEW:


THE TECH SUPPORT CALL LAST FRIDAY NEVER HAPPENED - I STOOD BY TODAY WAITING FOR THE CALL AND OF COURSE IT DIDN’T HAPPEN.   TOOK THE FOLLOWING ON SIM WHILE WAITING.   NEED TO REVIEW MY NO-TRADE RULE.


INITIAL BALANCE TRADE - THIS ONE WAS ODD AND FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW, THE MOVE BEGAN DURING PREMARKET AT 0744, 45 MINUTES BEFORE THE OPEN.   LOOKING CLOSELY, THERE “WAS” AN HONEST SMA BOUNCE FOR ENTRIES RIGHT ON THE BELL.     LATER THAT DAY, THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER HONEST SMA BOUND - TWO ENTRIES TODAY.


ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FRONT, WE OBVIOUSLY HAD SOME ONE TIME FRAMING ACTION AND AN 80% RULE SETUP.   THE PULLBACKS WOULD’VE DRIVEN THE SCALPING STOPS BERZERK WHILE POSITION STRUCTURE STOPS FARED BETTER.



Summary:
This contract rollover was interesting - During this time, I was able to observe similar price action not only in the equities but also in the 30 year bonds and gold - something I had not expected.


Based on Friday’s price action.  I over assessed the possibility of the markets continuing to go short which clearly did not happen today.   A contract high/low span for the ES & NQ (56 & 138 points respectively) was established over the last two days.  The span between the contract low and all time high is an additional 30 & 80 points respectively resulting in a field of about 90 & 220 points respectively for the ES and NQ.  This should keep us in action for 4Q2016 while the global banks and the elections work themselves through.


Tomorrow, Charlie Evans is having an open class that starts at 0700 - I need to start getting up earlier anyway.

OVERNIGHT ASSESSMENT
Quiet responsive night from yesterday’s controlled rally.

The MPs suggest the trading range for the upcoming quarter, likely the LVA we are presently in bounded by the contract extremes so far.  Breaking below 2100 and 4625, we’ve identified our targets (update this into the cheat sheets)


The overnight inventory is in balance (towards yesterday’s highs),  For the time being, I believe we will open in-balance and so the balance puke pit rules apply.

  • Generate Targets for next day (TOS chart)


CARRY OVER CONCLUSIONS


Resulting from the recent contract rollover and MP examination suggests the trading range for the upcoming quarter, likely the LVA we are presently in bounded by the contract extremes so far.  Breaking below 2100 and 4625, we’ve identified our targets (update this into the cheat sheets)

Today, I will be monitoring the pit session but also in Charlie Lewis's classroom.


MOVE OF THE DAY  

  • Today, use the in-balance rules