2025-06-25 Grok Proposed Prompt Revision

Revised Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) for a $1M portfolio (snapshot provided) to ensure retirement stability and ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, totaling ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66. Continue our evolving dialogue, leveraging prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day correction, stress tests) without reinventing the wheel. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” approach, emphasizing diversified allocations, gain harvesting, and risk mitigation across asset classes (equities, funds, cash, international, growth, income, sectors). Ensure maximum drawdown <20% in stress tests, portfolio recovery within 18 months post-correction (e.g., 10% crash), and risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Track metrics quarterly. 2. Cycle and Macro Analysis Monitor concentration risk, capping single-stock exposure at 5% (e.g., reduce MSFT from 7.48%) and sector exposure at 15% (e.g., tech ~12.5%). Suggest reallocations to diversify (e.g., MSFT proceeds to SCHD, XOM) if limits breached. Track multiple market cycles (equity, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector-specific) and macro triggers (Zweig Breadth Thrust, BRICS de-dollarization, FOMC, Leading Economic Indicators). Analyze reinforcements (e.g., debt crisis + equity correction) and cancellations (e.g., BRICS gains + U.S. equity losses) with likelihoods (High >70%, Medium 50-70%, Low <50%) and magnitudes (e.g., 10% portfolio loss, 1.5% gain). Use the following indicators and cadences: Equity Cycle: Weekly S&P 500 breadth (<40% above 200-day SMA), P/E (>25x), RSI (>70 sell, <30 buy), futures (NQ, ES, YM, RU) post-April 2025 ZBT. Bond Cycle: Monthly 10-year Treasury yield (>4.5%), 2-10 year spread, FOMC rate path. Currency Cycle: Monthly DXY (<95), BRICS trade agreements. Geopolitical Cycle: Quarterly tariff updates (e.g., 15% U.S. tariffs), oil prices (>$85/barrel). Sector Cycles: Monthly RSI, earnings for tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), energy (e.g., XOM), healthcare (e.g., JNJ, PFE), consumer (e.g., F, WBA). Provide candidate moves (e.g., sell MSFT at $480, buy INTC at $18) tied to cycle triggers. Monitor market behavior at all-time highs, volume indications (e.g., Level 2 data), and macro signals (e.g., LEI, retail sales) using denoised X sentiment and authoritative sources (Bloomberg, CNBC). Volume Action: Please summarize recent volume action, any significant changes, and potential implications to our WPS using available resources and capabilities at Grok's disposal. 3. Punch List Update the following Punch List items, categorized by priority, with triggers, volume signals, and reallocation recommendations by asset class to facilitate advisor discussions. Limit updates to 3-7 key points per item, focusing on developments since June 2025. High Priority (Likelihood >70%): INTC (Rising Phoenix): Buy/sell triggers (e.g., buy at ~$18, target $45), 18A/foundry progress, leadership impact, recovery timeframe (2025-2027). MSFT/TSLA: Harvest triggers (e.g., MSFT $480, TSLA $450), OpenAI/Musk legal updates, TSLA robotaxi delay impact. BRICS De-dollarization: DXY <95 triggers, VYMI allocation (to 1%), Bitcoin hedge (1% IBIT ETF). Watch List (Likelihood <50-70%): AAPL: Buy/sell triggers (e.g., buy ~$190, target $230), AI integration lag, tariff impact, regulatory pressures. F (Phoenix Thesis): EV recovery, tariff pressure (15%), inventory, competition, policy shifts (e.g., EV tax credit). Crushed Equities: BA (supply chain, recovery to $200), WBA (dividend cut risk, retail closures), INTC (cross-reference Rising Phoenix). Stress Tests (including dynamic stress testing): Retracement to 200-month MA, Cyber attack, Debt resolution failure, Full BRICS, 2027 Tech Burst, DXY < 95, EU/U.S. AI fines, Climate Policy, Geopolotical Escalation Provide key metrics (e.g. loss range, recovery potential, liklihood, triggers) and Confirm or suggest new holdings. 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, the present cycles, and alignment with WPS triggers. Address any key tensions between these Wise Minds (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy when there is panic on the streets, equity cycle, permanent member. Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), permanent member. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Philippe Laffont (vetting): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit vetting to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech). Leon Cooperman (vetting): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit vetting to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength, energy overweight). Ray Dailo (vetting): debt cycles, BRICS expertise New Candidates: Suggest 1-2 candidates with reputation, proven cycle navigation, diversified thesis expanding our Board. Provide recommendations of subjects for vetting or formalizing new members. 5. Lessons Learned Maintain a living list of historical events: 7 Bad: 1929 Crash, Black Monday 1987, Dot-Com 2000-2002 with comparisons to current AI rise, GFC 2007-2009, COVID-19 2020; 7 Good: Buffett’s Apple, Icahn’s Netflix, Amazon post-Dot-Com, Burry’s GameStop, S&P 500 SIP 2007-2025). Summarize each in one paragraph, covering triggers, impact, lessons, and Wise Minds’ insights (e.g., Buffett on cash, Cooperman on contrarian buys). Align lessons with WPS strategies (e.g., liquidity, dip-buying). Prioritize lessons relevant to active cycles (e.g., Dot-Com for tech, GFC for bonds) A topic we are developing is comparing the similarities and differences between the dot-com bubble and the present AI rally to the thesis that there will be a major correction around 2027-2028. 6. Outputs Deliver a text-based, Google Docs-friendly artifact: Include tax considerations for harvesting (e.g., long-term vs. short-term capital gains, hold periods for MSFT, TSLA) and reallocations (e.g., tax-free bond swaps for VBLIL to VCIT). Suggest tax-loss harvesting (e.g., sell WBA, BA at losses to offset MSFT gains) and Roth conversion opportunities to minimize tax drag. Main Report: Concise updates for Punch List (1-2 paragraphs per item), stress tests (key metrics, e.g., 7-22% loss range, triggers), and Lessons Learned (1 paragraph per event). Advisor Summary: Listing key triggers (e.g., MSFT sell at $480, INTC buy at $18), reallocations (e.g., VYMI to 1%, VBLIL to VCIT), and nuggets (e.g., DXY <95, INTC 18A progress). Schedule advisor reviews monthly (e.g., post-FOMC, earnings) for triggers (e.g., MSFT $480) and quarterly (e.g., tariff updates) for reallocations and stress tests. Provide talking points (e.g., INTC dip-buying, Bitcoin hedge feasibility). Appendices: Detailed cycle models, stress test simulations, and Wise Minds vetting (unlimited pages for depth). Include a near-term calendar (e.g., July-September 2025: FOMC, INTC earnings, tariff updates) and monitoring schedule: Weekly: S&P 500 breadth, RSI for MSFT, TSLA, INTC. Monthly: DXY, 10-year yield, LEI, retail sales. Quarterly: Tariffs, oil prices, BRICS pacts, FOMC statements. Check xAI system limitations and note if any are approached. Confirm no tracking risks from portfolio data (anonymize holdings, e.g., LMIMCO as aggregate). 7. Constraints Use denoised X sentiment and authoritative sources (Bloomberg, CNBC) for cycle tracking, macro updates, and Wise Minds insights. Avoid tracking risks by anonymizing portfolio data (e.g., normalize to $1M, aggregate funds). Flag if excessive data is provided that could enable tracking to actual holdings. 8. Change Log Feedback and Iteration: Document advisor feedback (e.g., trigger feasibility, reallocation constraints) and market-driven changes (e.g., new cycles, stress tests). Review prompt quarterly (e.g., October 2025) to update priorities (e.g., shift INTC to Watch List post-recovery), cadences (e.g., daily RSI if volatile), or Wise Minds (e.g., formalize Dalio). After each advisor meeting, note which triggers worked (e.g., MSFT harvest), which need adjustment (e.g., INTC buy at ~$16), and new nuggets. Update Change Log and Lessons Learned (e.g., add successful triggers like MSFT harvest) quarterly. June 2025: Added Ray Dalio as Wise Mind candidate for BRICS/debt expertise. Q2 2025: Harvested WMT, reinvested in SCHD. July 2025: Clarified PAPA as potential typo for PFE (0.38%); awaiting confirmation. July 2025: Added success metrics, concentration risk, dynamic stress tests, tax considerations, feedback loop. July 2025: Specified real income growth, AI regulation stress test example. Portfolio Snapshot - 6/20/25 VMFXX 0.95% VIGAX 4.94% VBIL 8.47% VCLT 0.59% VCRB 8.20% VWOB 0.98% VYMI 0.42% VTI 3.25% FMFXX 0.09% TEMWX 2.73% LMIMCO 2025 Target 13.04% LMIMCO ESOP (LM shares) 10.43% LMIMCO Large Cap Index 5.82% LMIMCO Small Mid Cap Index 1.93% LMIMCO Company Stock (LM Shares) 4.47% LMIMCO Global Equities Fund 2.32% USAIX 2.94% USTEX 1.13% SWVXX 4.98% VCIT 0.55% SCHD 0.63% GE 0.79% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.42% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.39% BAC 0.64% PLTR 1.67% BA 0.64% AAPL 0.65% CCJ 0.45% F 0.08% INTC 1.21% JNJ 0.79% MSFT 7.48% OGE 0.23% PFE 0.38% MTSUY 0.46% SSUMY 0.44% T 1.74% TSLA 0.99% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.79% XOM 0.59%