Thursday, October 6, 2016

Calm Before Hurricane Matthew or What's the Jobs Number?

he calm before the storm….   Hurricane Matthew is to hit Florida and the jobs number is due out tomorrow at 0830 (opening bell).   In preparation for the upcoming mess, there was only one recognizable campaign in the morning today where large lot selling was observed against defined HVA support.

Then, at 11:00, a one day reversal was executed driving price perfectly to defined support levels and rallying directly opposite of the opening where prices essentially stopped for the day resulting in a bimodal day.   This move is indicative of price clearly the ledger getting reading to move (somewhere)

The trigger on this move was purely volume with price action tagging along for the ride - If this is the way things are becoming, it will be time to break out my robot trading programs…   I took time this slow day to better try showing the large lot trading.   Hope it helps….

Inspection of the market profiles shows better the bimodal distribution and while the day did show some initiating activity compared to yesterday, it was still inside the second day prior meaning, we are going nowhere…

Because tomorrow’s jobs numbers is the excuse for the lame price action lately, a step higher is in order in the event the market does decide to move.  The NQ has been boxed in a rectangle pattern and the ES appears to be fixing to get squeezed out of it’s apex.   

While taking time to track some distant price targets for tomorrow,  I came to realize my new bain, disagreement of MP data between Bluewater and ThinkorSwim.   Linda Bradford Raschke had mentioned this would likely  happen and now it’s time to deal with it.   I’m believe my preference is to lean towards the ToS MP soon on the assumption that a larger population of traders use ToS than Trading Advantage.   Shame as the latter can really help tell the story…  

Finally, on a side note, it’s interesting seeing the OBV for the ES continuing to decline, investors are selling yet price continues to float.

Here is the Blue Water MP, also for a 90 Day look back…   Similar yet with differences which I believe is due to their scaling code to squeeze unbounded volume data into a fixed display window.   This is annoying as many of my trade triggers rely on reliable HVA definition.


Volume for both markets was lighter than average and with value essentially unchanged, this amounts to simply waiting for the storm... Hindsight shows a CLEAR reversal pattern on the NQ. The price was ripping down at such speed, it raised question on taking it but did yield good money.

Targets for tomorrow. - I've no idea what the market will do with the the labor number, with the hurricane, with global banks in arrears, with the election. Volume has been diminishing and the ranges tightening typically meaning it's time to move. Who knows where and how orderly will it be... Get up early and watch for elephants.... Nonetheless.....

If NQ breaks above ATH and into white space, go with the Pivot and Fib levels on TOS.  If price falls, week defined support levels.

The ES if further away from white space.   A break out in either direction and we’ll pay attention to our defined support/resistance levels