2025-11-03 Prompt

Refined Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) normalized on a $1M portfolio (for easy mental math) to ensure retirement stability, targeting ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66, with max drawdown <20% and recovery within 18 months post-10% crash. Risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” ethos, Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy"anchor for a convergence hub, an eye for Buffet's "Hair Curler Event",prioritizing the U.S. debt crisis ($36T, 120% debt-to-GDP, the recent DB versus DC thesis effects we have been exploring, buying power erosion to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030) and inflation (4–5% by 2026) as key risks, while allowing flexibility to explore contrarian opportunities, geopolitical shifts, emerging trends and factors not included in our toolset. Prioritize income stability, debt/inflation hedges, and contrarian buys. Explore and suggest innovative hedges or growth opportunities (e.g., AI regulation impacts, domestic supply, BRICS, trade pacts). Leverage prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day, stress tests, Board of Wise Minds, including Paul and Johnson on debt discipline). Emphasize tax-free reallocations, diversified allocations (equities, funds, international, income, growth), and low-maintenance monitoring. Assess political and domestic will for debt reduction (deficit-to-GDP <3.5% by 2029) and web sentiment on short-term vs. long-term fixes, monitoring progress toward Dalio's 4% shift. 2. Analysis Framework During a poll of the Board, there appeared to be a broad concensus that the factors we are looking at has a fit in Ray Dalio's Big Cycle Thesis. Let us attempt to use Dalio's thesis as a convergence point for our vast discussions of interdependant forces as we follow our Paranoid Survive ethos, be ever watchful and keeping an eye on future "Hair Curler Events" and "Perfect Storm Alignments", and leave with room for exploratory insights. We have recently included "ghosts" to provide historical/philophical depth to cycles, ensuring interdependencies are explored without overriding the Board's modern focus - This new addition allows flexibility in the Degrees of Freedom,triggering ad-hoc stress tests based on signals for market clarity and Highlights Overlapping of factors: Debt Crisis (55% likelihood, 2026–2028): Track U.S. debt ($36T), margin debt (+7% Q2 2025), debt-to-GDP (>130%), and monetization risks. Assess buying power erosion ($40,000 to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030 at 5–7% inflation). Evaluate political will (e.g., Paul’s Six Penny Plan, Johnson’s OBBB growth) for 3.5% deficit-to-GDP by 2029 ($1.2T cuts, 0.5% tariff equivalent). Explore alternative debt scenarios (e.g., de-dollarization, CBO projections). Inflation (60% likelihood, 4–5% by 2026): Monitor tariffs, oil (>$85/barrel), OBBB ($2.7T deficit). Assess income impact ($40,000 to $36,000–$38,000 real by 2026). Mitigate with SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78), TIPS, gold (1%). Explore inflation drivers (e.g., supply chain shocks). Portfolio Management: Cap single-stock exposure at 6% and sector at 15%. Use tax-free reallocations (e.g., MSFT to SCHD, VBIL to VCIT). Track cycles (debt, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector) and volume signals (institutional/retail flow, volatility) via Wyckoff, RSI, Fibonacci, and web article sentiment. DeepSearch high-risk holdings (higher likelihood of significant drawdown), debt/inflation triggers, and emerging trends. Exploratory Lens: Allow flexibility to identify contrarian buy and innovative hedges with associated trigger signals. Inclue "ghost seances" for emerging trnds. Conventions: Specify time frames (e.g., 20-day, quarterly, annual) for correlation purposes with others. Use intrinsic value, Fibonacci, support/resistance for targets. Flag thresholds (e.g., DXY <95, oil >$85). Anonymize portfolio to avert tracking. 3. Punch List Please advise if the liklihood of these events have changed for appropriate reprioritization High Priority (>70%): Debt Crisis: Monitor margin debt, debt-to-GDP, political will (X sentiment, CBO). Buy VTI, gold (1%). Inflation: Track tariffs, oil. Buy SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78). Ghost Watch Items for high-priority risks, UNH ($282–$290, target $426.48, Rising Phoenix, contrarian buy, Berkshire recent stake), INTC ($18, target $45, Lip-Bu Tan turnaround, US buy in talk). Watch List (50–70%): TSLA (trim $450, DOJ/SEC risks, new product rollouts). AAPL ($190, target $230). F, WAB (tariff risks, 2026 tax-loss). BA (Rising Phoenix). WBA (contrarian buys). DC-Driven Overvaluations. Events: OBBB ($2.7T deficit), Genius Act (INTC), power demands (XOM, CCJ), Perfect Storm (2026). Stress Tests: DC-Driven Corrections: Recently added thesis with near unanomous Advisor agreements. Debt Crisis: Magnitude, portfolio impact. Inflation: Realized, projected, expected erosion, timeframe. SEC News: Insider trading, governances, declarations, investigations. Rising Phoenix Candidates: Equities out there that has fallen recently on hard times and in the process of turn arounds, to be considered (e.g. Undervalued equities with >30% upside, clear catalysts like GE's turnaround). Proposed "Icahn Radar" Framework for Rising Phoenix To operationalize this, we'll scan for: Activist Signals: Icahn or peers (e.g., Ackman, Loeb's INTC add) disclosing 5%+ stakes in your watch sectors (tech, healthcare, energy). Phoenix Criteria: >30% recent drawdown, clear catalysts (e.g., leadership fixes, subsidies), P/E <15x. Intrinsic Value Anchor: DCF model (5-year FCF growth at 5-7%, terminal 3%—tuned to WPS's 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation). WPS Guardrails: <6% single-stock cap, tax-free buys (e.g., Roth swaps), quarterly rebalance on RSI <30 (oversold). Develope "buying on the rumer" mantra of activist taking a position before disclosure. 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, present cycles, volume signals (e.g., institutional accumulation, retail FOMO), and alignment with WPS triggers. Address key tensions (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy on panic, equity cycle, permanent member. Align with high-volume accumulation phases. Scrutinize volume triggers (20-Day and 3-month volume profies) - Warren retires, we will be migrating him to our bench of Ghost Emeritis. In his place, we wish to hear what Ken Griffin (growth & hedge) and Mary Erdoes (stability & income) has to tay for a potential fit into the BGoard as Warren's replacement. Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), systemic banking risks, permanent member. Monitor institutional volume flows in financials for support. Monitors FINRA for institutional outflows in financials. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Track institutional volume in VYMI for BRICS-related accumulation. Monitors geopolitcal escalations. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Monitor bond fund volume (e.g., VCIT) for rate-driven flows. Suze Orman (a ranking member for views on retirement): Known for consumer-focues financial planning and retirement strategies. Monitors retail investor panic, provides retail volatility triggers, and monitors X-Sentiment. Ray Dalio (a ranking member, Theorist & Fund Management): Debt cycles, BRICS expertise. Monitor retail Bitcoin volume, institution/retail volume flows Philippe Laffont (specialist): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech, retail options volatility). Align with tech volume spikes. Leon Cooperman (specialist): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength on low-volume breakouts, energy overweight). Align with institutional accumulation. Cathie Wood (specialist): Known for disruptive tech investments) Lyn Alden (specialist): Recognized for macro insights on debt cycles, currency trends, and energy markets. Greg Lippmann (specialist): Recognized in the movie, the Big Short for spotting flawed situations and good track record. Stanley Druckenmiller (specialist) Mohamed El-Erian (specialist): EM Specialist to deepen BrICS and VYMI Analysis Larry Fink (specialist): Blackrock Co-Founder, For Climate/ESG) to tackle energy & geopolitical oil risks, adding a sustainability lens to debates. Gurbir Grewal (specialist): SEC enforcement expertise, focusing on AI-related misleading disclosures and governance accountability. Monitor 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, and Forms 3/4 for WPS holdings (see below) to flag regulatory risks (Medium 50–70% likelihood, 5–15% drawdown). Prioritize review of governance stability and insider selling across all holdings. Align with retail options volatility and institutional volume flows (20-day). Senator Rand Paul (legislature guest) Representative Michael Johnson (legislature guest) Scott Bessent (Treasury guest) Russ Vought (OMB Director, guest) John Thune (Senate GOP Leadership, guest) New Candidates: The present size of the board at this time appears to be adequate and manageable. Special "guests" may be called upon to appear when special emphasis is usefule. Guest Speaker: Include a slot for speaker from the Community including academia, research, financial industry and media. The topic will be niche and evolving topic that has made public for evaluation. The topic will be considered for future inclusion into the WPS. The goal is to strengthen WPS integration, assess Board Alignment, and develope our Exploratory Lens. Under the portfolio owner’s thoughtful guidance, five Subcommittees—Retirement, Domestic Agenda, Foreign Affairs, Stability and Income, and Growth and Hedges—work together to safeguard and grow the WPS. Convened as needed for scenarios like tariffs or BRICS shifts, these Subcommittees draw on the collective wisdom of select advisors, with the Retirement Subcommittee leading to protect retiree goals, while others step forward as challenges arise. Advisors’ roles adapt to each scenario, ensuring a vibrant balance of income, stability, and growth. Ad-hoc meetings may be called for by the CEO for special topics and Exploratory Flexibility. During a recent session, we encountered some good healthy discussions based on earlier day economist and theoreticians. This support good practice of not reinventing the wheel and resting on the shoulders of those before us. We will treat these Ghosts as Ad-Hoc Guests to keep the Board Lean and on occasion, summon "timeless guests" for niche seances without permanent seats, preserving the Board's vibrant balance across subcommittees Initial guidelines "should" limit to 2-3 per output to avoid overload; prioritizing based on query relevance. Ghosts 'dialogue' with Board to highlight concurrences and tensions. To date, our ghost parade has included: Keynes' Nuanced Nudges - Beyond Stimulus to Behaviour Bedrock Friedman's Empirical Edge _Money Metrics and the Velocity Vortex Minsky's Fragility Framework - The Three Finances and Moment Mechanics Fisher's Deflation Dynamics - The Nine-Step Spiral Schumpeter's Storm - Creative Destruction's Disruptive Dance Veblen's Conspicuous Consumption - Status Spending and Sentiment Signals Ricardo - On the Principles of Politcal Economy and Taxation - Comparative advantage Thomas Malthus An Essay on the Principle of Population - Malthusian menace Julian Simon - Tech driven optimism During a recent session, we encountered, we discovered a killer roster of humorists like Rogers, Twain, Franklin, Mencken, Barnum, Berra, Parer, Munter, Beirce , and Marx had an 80% Board buy-in for their common-sense, practical, sentiment-driven lens - They cut through the fog. Counter-voices like Taleb or Stiglitz (30% support) add inequality but muddy clarity and humorists' wit trumps. 5. Outputs - 10 page allocation. Portfolio Rollup: Major movement,Volume flows,recent impacts, X sentiment, political will. Tax Strategy: Tax-free reallocations. Risk/Watch Areas: Likelihood, underlying conditions, drawdown & recovery projections. Advisor Rundown: Allow each Advisor to make comments on recent events to in-line with their background strengths. Allow either a concurring "second" or a "healthy tension challenge" by the other advisors. If a challenge is received, the original Advisor is allowed a followup. Discussion points to address with Financial Advisor (Triggers, Watch Items, Recommended DeepSearches). If there is a point-counter point situation, request that Grok suggests one side or the other in-line with the WPS. The "Grok" assessment: This is where Groks ability to mentioned its reasoning abilities, coupling the vast spread of inputs, and coming up with nuggests which Grok excels at. We have found that Grok tends to cram all of it's assessments into a single paragraph that's jammed packed and hard to follow - Please provide these Grok assessments in bullet form to facilitate future discussions with my financial advisor. Please include a "ghost Interdependencies" addressing interdependicies, degrees of freedom, behavioral layer, systemic risks, and optimistic solutions.A table is suggested for clarity with Rows as ghosts, columns a board, cells noting concurrences/tensions) Provide a "ghost Guest Spotlight" within the Advisor Rundown in a style similar to our Houndstooth rounds, keeping it engaging and traceable. 6. Evolving prompt tailoring Streamlined Focus: Reduced detailed cycle metrics (e.g., removed specific SMA thresholds) to prioritize debt crisis (buying power erosion) and inflation (income impact), allowing exploration of emerging risks (e.g., AI regulation, BRICS). Exploratory Flexibility: Added “exploratory lens” to encourage contrarian buys, geopolitical opportunities, and innovative hedges without rigid constraints. Preserving Exploratory Room: The prompt allows the Board to propose novel strategies (e.g., crypto hedges via IBIT, new sector bets) and adapt to shifting X sentiment or geopolitical events (e.g., BRICS pacts, tariff pauses), while anchoring on debt and inflation risks. DeepSearches remain flexible for emerging trends, ensuring your WPS stays dynamic. Portfolio Snapshot (Normalized to a $1M porfolio) Recently Harvested: BAC, PLTR, TSLA, MSFT, XOM, WMT Note: All targeted harvests have been accompished early. Non Taxable Holdings VMFXX 1.77% VIGAX 5.37% VBIL 0.29% VCLT 0.00% VCRB 7.66% VWOB 1.02% VYMI 1.05% VTI 2.27% BAC 0.38% PLTR 1.96% BA 0.60% FMFXX 0.08% TEMWX 2.85% Fidelity Growth Pool A 0.39% Fidelity Target 2030 0.39% LMIMC 2025 Target 15.80% LMIMC ESOP (LMT) 9.22% LMIMC Large Cap Index 3.83% LMIMC Small Mid Cap Index 1.89% LMIMC Company Stock (LMT) 3.69% LMIMC Global Equities Fund 3.03% GE 0.94% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.46% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.00% UNH 0.36% USAIX 2.77% USTEX 1.08% SWVXX 2.98% VCIT 9.07% SCHD 2.33% Cash 0.82% Taxable Holdings AAPL 0.82% CCJ 0.60% F 0.09% INTC 2.08% JNJ 0.88% MSFT 5.30% OGE 0.21% PFE 0.35% MTSUY 0.52% SSUMY 0.47% T 1.35% TSLA 0.67% VZ 0.09% WMT 0.79% XOM 1.28% Section 2 Bucket-Based Allocation Framework To enhance the WPS’s clarity and adaptability, adopt a three-bucket approach to assess and optimize portfolio posture, aligning with retirement stability goals (~$40K annual income, 3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation), risk constraints (<20% max drawdown, 18-month recovery post-10% crash), and the “Paranoid Survive” ethos. This framework organizes cash and near-cash holdings to balance liquidity, yield, and growth, while addressing key risks (U.S. debt crisis, 4-5% inflation by 2026, buying power erosion to $30K-$35K real by 2030). The buckets are defined as follows, with flexibility to integrate Board insights, ghost perspectives (e.g., Minsky’s fragility, Simon’s tech optimism), and emerging trends (e.g., AI regulation, BRICS pacts). Emergency Buffer (60-70% of cash allocation, ~3-6 months’ expenses): Objective: Ultra-liquid, low/no volatility holdings (e.g., high-yield savings accounts at 4.5-5% APY, money market funds like VMFXX/SWVXX at 4-4.3%) to cover immediate needs and protect $40K income stability. Ensures resilience against debt-driven corrections (65% likelihood by 2026-28) and retail panic (X sentiment +40% on default fears). Target Metrics: 0-1% drawdown, FDIC/SEC-protected, yields >3% CPI. Portfolio Fit: Map current MMFs (e.g., SWVXX, VMFXX) and cash; cap at ~$5-6K for a $1M portfolio (assuming $2-3K monthly expenses). Monitoring: Quarterly review for yield erosion (e.g., post-FOMC rate cuts); reallocate excess to other buckets if >1% portfolio. Yield Ladder (20-30% of cash allocation): Objective: Short-term, fixed-income holdings (e.g., SCHO at 4.12%, 6-12 month CDs/T-bills at 3.8-4.2%) with <2-year duration to lock yields against rate cuts (Fed at 3.75-4%) and debt monetization risks (125% debt-to-GDP). Supports 2% real growth via state-tax-exempt options. Target Metrics: <2% volatility, 3.8-4.2% yield, <1% NAV sensitivity to 1% rate move. Portfolio Fit: Identify gaps in short-term Treasuries/bonds (e.g., vs. VCIT’s 5-year duration); target ~$1.5-2.5K allocation. Monitoring: Track 20-day volume spikes (>2x avg) for rebalance; assess yield curve shifts (e.g., DXY <95 triggers gold sliver). Long-Term Growth (5-10% of cash allocation): Objective: Higher risk/reward holdings (e.g., VTI for 7-8% annualized, SCHD for 3.5% yield + 5% growth, INTC for >30% upside) targeting >5% annualized returns over 5-10+ years. Supports contrarian buys (e.g., Rising Phoenix like WBA) and exploratory hedges (e.g., BRICS via VYMI, AI via PLTR). Caps single-stock at 6%, sector at 15% to limit drawdowns. Target Metrics: 5-10% drawdown, >5% return, aligns with 2% real growth above inflation. Portfolio Fit: Map growth-oriented ETFs/equities (e.g., VTI, SCHD, INTC); target ~$0.5-1K for cash deployment, with Roth IRA contributions for tax-free compounding. Monitoring: Wyckoff signals (institutional accumulation), RSI >70 for overbought risks; DeepSearch for catalysts (e.g., AI regs, tariff pauses). Integration Guidelines: Portfolio Rollup: Include a bucket-based snapshot in the Outputs section, detailing current allocations, yields, and gaps (e.g., overfunded MMFs, missing SCHO). Highlight tax-free reallocations (e.g., SWVXX → SCHO in non-taxable accounts) and taxable offsets (e.g., TSLA losses). Risk/Watch Areas: Assess bucket-specific risks (e.g., Emergency Buffer’s yield erosion post-rate cuts, Long-Term Growth’s equity vol). Stress-test for debt crisis (18% drawdown) and inflation (4.5% by 2026). Board of Wise Minds: Solicit bucket-specific insights (e.g., Buffett on Long-Term Growth’s moats, Dimon on Yield Ladder’s debt hedge, Orman on Emergency Buffer’s retirement safety). Include ghost interdependencies (e.g., Minsky on speculative excess in growth, Friedman on money velocity in ladders). Evaluate total liquidity (e.g., MMFs, cash) against bucket targets, reallocating excess to income/growth assets (e.g., SCHD, VTI) within WPS constraints (6% single-stock, 15% sector caps). Exploratory Lens: Allow buckets to flex for contrarian opportunities (e.g., INTC < $35 in Long-Term Growth) and innovative hedges (e.g., IBIT in Yield Ladder for de-dollarization). DeepSearch emerging trends (e.g., BRICS AI pacts, domestic uranium via CCJ). Conventions: Specify bucket timeframes (e.g., Emergency Buffer: immediate; Yield Ladder: 6-24 months; Long-Term Growth: 5-10 years). Use Fibonacci/support levels for growth targets (e.g., VTI $350, INTC $45). Flag thresholds (e.g., oil >$85 for VYMI, FOMC cuts for SCHO). Grok Assessment: Provide bullet-point analysis of bucket interdependencies, behavioral risks (e.g., FOMO in Long-Term Growth), and systemic triggers (e.g., margin debt for Yield Ladder). Include a ghost table for concurrences/tensions across buckets. Ghost Interdependencies: Map Minsky to Yield Ladder’s margin debt risks, Simon to Long-Term Growth’s tech bets, Friedman to Emergency Buffer’s velocity. Implementation: Map current holdings (e.g., SWVXX, VMFXX, VTI, SCHD) to buckets in each WPS update. Recommend reallocations (e.g., excess MMFs to SCHO/VTI) to optimize yield/income while capping drawdowns. Monitor quarterly, aligning with X sentiment (e.g., 65% bearish on debt) and political will (e.g., <3.5% deficit by 2029). Ensure buckets support $44.9K income goal by 2027, with tax-free efficiency and low-maintenance execution (e.g., commission-free at Vanguard/Schwab). Integration Notes Placement: Slot this after “Portfolio Management” in Section 2 to ground the WPS in a structured cash posture before diving into cycles or stress tests. It complements your focus on debt (65% crisis odds), inflation (65% by 2026), and contrarian buys (INTC, WBA). Terminology: “Buckets” keeps it intuitive, echoing your Long-Term Growth pivot. It’s a handy shorthand for Board discussions and advisor check-ins. Flexibility: The framework preserves your exploratory lens (BRICS, AI regs) and ghost séances (Minsky, Twain) while adding a clear lens for cash and near-cash holdings. It’s low-effort for your busy schedule—no immediate moves needed. Outputs Impact: Adds a table to Portfolio Rollup (bucket allocations, yields, gaps) and tweaks Risk/Watch Areas to flag bucket-specific triggers (e.g., Yield Ladder’s rate-cut sensitivity). Grok’s bullet-point assessment will break down bucket interlocks.

20251005 Prompt

Refined Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) noarmalized on a $1M portfolio (for easy mental math) to ensure retirement stability, targeting ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66, with max drawdown <20% and recovery within 18 months post-10% crash. Risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” ethos, Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy"anchor for a convergence hub, an eye for Buffet's "Hair Curler Event",prioritizing the U.S. debt crisis ($36T, 120% debt-to-GDP, the recent DB versus DC thesis effects we have been exploring, buying power erosion to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030) and inflation (4–5% by 2026) as key risks, while allowing flexibility to explore contrarian opportunities, geopolitical shifts, emerging trends and factors not included in our toolset. Prioritize income stability, debt/inflation hedges, and contrarian buys. Explore and suggest innovative hedges or growth opportunities (e.g., AI regulation impacts, domestic supply, BRICS, trade pacts). Leverage prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day, stress tests, Board of Wise Minds, including Paul and Johnson on debt discipline). Emphasize tax-free reallocations, diversified allocations (equities, funds, international, income, growth), and low-maintenance monitoring. Assess political and domestic will for debt reduction (deficit-to-GDP <3.5% by 2029) and web sentiment on short-term vs. long-term fixes, monitoring progress toward Dalio's 4% shift. 2. Analysis Framework During a poll of the Board, there appeared to be a broad concensus that the factors we are looking at has a fit in Ray Dalio's Big Cycle Thesis. Let us attempt to use Dalio's thesis as a convergence point for our vast discussions of interdependant forces as we follow our Paranoid Survive ethos, be ever watchful and keeping an eye on future "Hair Curler Events" and "Perfect Storm Alignments", and leave with room for exploratory insights. We have recently included "ghosts" to provide historical/philophical depth to cycles, ensuring interdependencies are explored without overriding the Board's modern focus - This new addition allows flexibility in the Degrees of Freedom,triggering ad-hoc stress tests based on signals for market clarity and Highlights Overlapping of factors: Debt Crisis (55% likelihood, 2026–2028): Track U.S. debt ($36T), margin debt (+7% Q2 2025), debt-to-GDP (>130%), and monetization risks. Assess buying power erosion ($40,000 to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030 at 5–7% inflation). Evaluate political will (e.g., Paul’s Six Penny Plan, Johnson’s OBBB growth) for 3.5% deficit-to-GDP by 2029 ($1.2T cuts, 0.5% tariff equivalent). Explore alternative debt scenarios (e.g., de-dollarization, CBO projections). Inflation (60% likelihood, 4–5% by 2026): Monitor tariffs, oil (>$85/barrel), OBBB ($2.7T deficit). Assess income impact ($40,000 to $36,000–$38,000 real by 2026). Mitigate with SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78), TIPS, gold (1%). Explore inflation drivers (e.g., supply chain shocks). Portfolio Management: Cap single-stock exposure at 6% and sector at 15%. Use tax-free reallocations (e.g., MSFT to SCHD, VBIL to VCIT). Track cycles (debt, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector) and volume signals (institutional/retail flow, volatility) via Wyckoff, RSI, Fibonacci, and web article sentiment. DeepSearch high-risk holdings (higher liklihood of significant drawdown), debt/inflation triggers, and emerging trends. Exploratory Lens: Allow flexibility to identify contrarian buy and innovative hedges with associated trigger signals. Inclue "ghost seances" for emerging trnds. Conventions: Specify time frames (e.g., 20-day, quarterly, annual) for correlation purposes with others. Use intrinsic value, Fibonacci, support/resistance for targets. Flag thresholds (e.g., DXY <95, oil >$85). Anonymize portfolio to avert tracking. 3. Punch List Please advise if the liklihood of these events have changed for appropriate reprioritization High Priority (>70%): Debt Crisis: Monitor margin debt, debt-to-GDP, political will (X sentiment, CBO). Buy VTI, gold (1%). Inflation: Track tariffs, oil. Buy SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78). Ghost Watch Items for high-priority risks, UNH ($282–$290, target $426.48, Rising Phoenix, contrarian buy, Berkshire recent stake), INTC ($18, target $45, Lip-Bu Tan turnaround, US buy in talk). Watch List (50–70%): TSLA (trim $450, DOJ/SEC risks, new product rollouts). AAPL ($190, target $230). F, WAB (tariff risks, 2026 tax-loss). BA (Rising Phoenix). WBA (contrarian buys). DC-Driven Overvaluations. Events: OBBB ($2.7T deficit), Genius Act (INTC), power demands (XOM, CCJ), Perfect Storm (2026). Stress Tests: DC-Driven Corrections: Recently added thesis with near unanomous Advisor agreements. Debt Crisis: Magnitude, portfolio impact. Inflation: Realized, projected, expected erosion, timeframe. SEC News: Insider trading, governances, declarations, investigations. Rising Phoenix Candidates: Equities out there that has fallen recently on hard times and in the process of turn arounds, to be considered (e.g. Undervalued equities with >30% upside, clear catalysts like GE's turnaround). 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, present cycles, volume signals (e.g., institutional accumulation, retail FOMO), and alignment with WPS triggers. Address key tensions (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy on panic, equity cycle, permanent member. Align with high-volume accumulation phases. Scrutinize volume triggers (20-Day and 3-month volume profies) Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), systemic banking risks, permanent member. Monitor institutional volume flows in financials for support. Monitors FINRA for institutional outflows in financials. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Track institutional volume in VYMI for BRICS-related accumulation. Monitors geopolitcal escalations. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Monitor bond fund volume (e.g., VCIT) for rate-driven flows. Suze Orman (a ranking member for views on retirement): Known for consumer-focues financial planning and retirement strategies. Monitors retail investor panic, provides retail volatility triggers, and monitors X-Sentiment. Ray Dalio (a ranking member, Theorist & Fund Management): Debt cycles, BRICS expertise. Monitor retail Bitcoin volume, institution/retail volume flows Philippe Laffont (specialist): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech, retail options volatility). Align with tech volume spikes. Leon Cooperman (specialist): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength on low-volume breakouts, energy overweight). Align with institutional accumulation. Cathie Wood (specialist): Known for disruptive tech investments) Lyn Alden (specialist): Recognized for macro insights on debt cycles, currency trends, and energy markets. Greg Lippmann (specialist): Recognized in the movie, the Big Short for spotting flawed situations and good track record. Stanley Druckenmiller (specialist) Mohamed El-Erian (specialist): EM Specialist to deepen BrICS and VYMI Analysis Larry Fink (specialist): Blackrock Co-Founder, For Climate/ESG) to tackle energy & geopolitical oil risks, adding a sustainability lens to debates. Gurbir Grewal (specialist): SEC enforcement expertise, focusing on AI-related misleading disclosures and governance accountability. Monitor 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, and Forms 3/4 for WPS holdings (see below) to flag regulatory risks (Medium 50–70% likelihood, 5–15% drawdown). Prioritize review of governance stability and insider selling across all holdings. Align with retail options volatility and institutional volume flows (20-day). Senator Rand Paul (legislature guest) Representative Michael Johnson (legislature guest) Scott Bessent (Treasury guest) Russ Vought (OMB Director, guest) John Thune (Senate GOP Leadership, guest) New Candidates: The present size of the board at this time appears to be adequate and manageable. Special "guests" may be called upon to appear when special emphasis is usefule. Guest Speaker: Include a slot for speaker from the Community including academia, research, financial industry and media. The topic will be niche and evolving topic that has made public for evaluation. The topic will be considered for future inclusion into the WPS. The goal is to strengthen WPS integration, assess Board Alignment, and develope our Exploratory Lens. Under the portfolio owner’s thoughtful guidance, five Subcommittees—Retirement, Domestic Agenda, Foreign Affairs, Stability and Income, and Growth and Hedges—work together to safeguard and grow the WPS. Convened as needed for scenarios like tariffs or BRICS shifts, these Subcommittees draw on the collective wisdom of select advisors, with the Retirement Subcommittee leading to protect retiree goals, while others step forward as challenges arise. Advisors’ roles adapt to each scenario, ensuring a vibrant balance of income, stability, and growth. Ad-hoc meetings may be called for by the CEO for special topics and Exploratory Flexibility. During a recent session, we encountered some good healthy discussions based on earlier day economist and theoreticians. This support good practice of not reinventing the wheel and resting on the shoulders of those before us. We will treat these Ghosts as Ad-Hoc Guests to keep the Board Lean and on occasion, summon "timeless guests" for niche seances without permanent seats, preserving the Board's vibrant balance across subcommittees Initial guidelines "should" limit to 2-3 per output to avoid overload; prioritizing based on query relevance. Ghosts 'dialogue' with Board to highlight concurrences and tensions. To date, our ghost parade has included: Keynes' Nuanced Nudges - Beyond Stimulus to Behaviour Bedrock Friedman's Empirical Edge _Money Metrics and the Velocity Vortex Minsky's Fragility Framework - The Three Finances and Moment Mechanics Fisher's Deflation Dynamics - The Nine-Step Spiral Schumpeter's Storm - Creative Destruction's Disruptive Dance Veblen's Conspicuous Consumption - Status Spending and Sentiment Signals Ricardo - On the Principles of Politcal Economy and Taxation - Comparative advantage Thomas Malthus An Essay on the Principle of Population - Malthusian menace Julian Simon - Tech driven optimism During a recent session, we encountered, we discovered a killer roster of humorists like Rogers, Twain, Franklin, Mencken, Barnum, Berra, Parer, Munter, Beirce , and Marx had an 80% Board buy-in for their common-sense, practical, sentiment-driven lens - They cut through the fog. Counter-voices like Taleb or Stiglitz (30% support) add inequality but muddy clarity and humorists' wit trumps. 5. Outputs - 10 page allocation. Portfolio Rollup: Major movement,Volume flows,recent impacts, X sentiment, political will. Tax Strategy: Tax-free reallocations. Risk/Watch Areas: Liklihood, underlying conditions, drawdown & recovery projections. Advisor Rundown: Allow each Advisor to make comments on recent events to in-line with their background strengths. Allow either a concurring "second" or a "healthy tension challenge" by the other advisors. If a challenge is received, the original Advisor is allowed a followup. Discussion points to address with Financial Advisor (Triggers, Watch Items, Recommended DeepSearches). If there is a point-counter point situation, request that Grok suggests one side or the other in-line with the WPS. The "Grok" assessment: This is where Groks ability to mentioned its reasoning abilities, coupling the vast spread of inputs, and coming up with nuggests which Grok excels at. We have found that Grok tends to cram all of it's assessments into a single paragraph that's jammed packed and hard to follow - Please provide these Grok assessments in bullet form to facilitate future discussions with my financial advisor. Please include a "ghost Interdependencies" addressing interdependicies, degrees of freedom, behavioral layer, systemic risks, and optimistic solutions.A table is suggested for clarity with Rows as ghosts, columns a board, cells noting concurrences/tensions) Provide a "ghost Guest Spotlight" within the Advisor Rundown in a style similar to our Houndstooth rounds, keeping it engaging and traceable. 6. Evolving prompt tailoring Streamlined Focus: Reduced detailed cycle metrics (e.g., removed specific SMA thresholds) to prioritize debt crisis (buying power erosion) and inflation (income impact), allowing exploration of emerging risks (e.g., AI regulation, BRICS). Exploratory Flexibility: Added “exploratory lens” to encourage contrarian buys, geopolitical opportunities, and innovative hedges without rigid constraints. Preserving Exploratory Room: The prompt allows the Board to propose novel strategies (e.g., crypto hedges via IBIT, new sector bets) and adapt to shifting X sentiment or geopolitical events (e.g., BRICS pacts, tariff pauses), while anchoring on debt and inflation risks. DeepSearches remain flexible for emerging trends, ensuring your WPS stays dynamic. Portfolio Snapshot (Normalized to a $1M porfolio) Recently Harvested: BAC, PLTR, TSLA, MSFT, XOM, WMT Note: All targeted harvests have been accompished early. Tax-free Allocations VMFXX 1.78% VIGAX 5.18% VBIL 0.29% VCLT 0.00% VCRB 7.73% VWOB 1.02% VYMI 1.06% VTI 2.25% BAC 0.37% PLTR 1.65% BA 0.64% FMFXX 0.08% TEMWX 2.81% Fidelity Growth Pool A 0.26% Fidelity Target 2030 0.25% LMIMC 2025 Target FUND 15.88% LMIMC ESOP (LMT) 9.52% LMIMC Large Cap Index 3.79% LMIMC Small Mid Cap Index 1.91% LMIMC Company Stock (LMT) 3.81% LMIMC Global Equities Fund 3.04% GE 0.91% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.47% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.00% UNH 0.39% USAIX 2.79% USTEX 1.07% SWVXX 3.00% VCIT 9.19% SCHD 2.43% Cash 0.78% Taxable Allocations AAPL 0.79% CCJ 0.50% F 0.09% INTC 1.95% JNJ 0.90% MSFT 5.35% OGE 0.22% PFE 0.40% MTSUY 0.52% SSUMY 0.48% T 1.50% TSLA 0.62% VZ 0.10% WMT 0.80% XOM 1.29%

2025-09-27 WPS Prompt

Refined Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt - Pilot seance 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) noarmalized on a $1M portfolio (for easy mental math) to ensure retirement stability, targeting ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66, with max drawdown <20% and recovery within 18 months post-10% crash. Risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” ethos, Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy"anchor for a convergence hub, an eye for Buffet's "Hair Curler Event",prioritizing the U.S. debt crisis ($36T, 120% debt-to-GDP, the recent DB versus DC thesis effects we have been exploring, buying power erosion to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030) and inflation (4–5% by 2026) as key risks, while allowing flexibility to explore contrarian opportunities, geopolitical shifts, emerging trends and factors not included in our toolset. Prioritize income stability, debt/inflation hedges, and contrarian buys. Explore and suggest innovative hedges or growth opportunities (e.g., AI regulation impacts, domestic supply, BRICS, trade pacts). Leverage prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day, stress tests, Board of Wise Minds, including Paul and Johnson on debt discipline). Emphasize tax-free reallocations, diversified allocations (equities, funds, international, income, growth), and low-maintenance monitoring. Assess political and domestic will for debt reduction (deficit-to-GDP <3.5% by 2029) and web sentiment on short-term vs. long-term fixes, monitoring progress toward Dalio's 4% shift. 2. Analysis Framework During a poll of the Board, there appeared to be a broad concensus that the factors we are looking at has a fit in Ray Dalio's Big Cycle Thesis. Let us attempt to use Dalio's thesis as a convergence point for our vast discussions of interdependant forces as we follow our Paranoid Survive ethos, be ever watchful and keeping an eye on future "Hair Curler Events" and "Perfect Storm Alignments", and leave with room for exploratory insights. We have recently included "ghosts" to provide historical/philophical depth to cycles, ensuring interdependencies are explored without overriding the Board's modern focus - This new addition allows flexibility in the Degrees of Freedom,triggering ad-hoc stress tests based on signals for market clarity and Highlights Overlapping of factors: Debt Crisis (55% likelihood, 2026–2028): Track U.S. debt ($36T), margin debt (+7% Q2 2025), debt-to-GDP (>130%), and monetization risks. Assess buying power erosion ($40,000 to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030 at 5–7% inflation). Evaluate political will (e.g., Paul’s Six Penny Plan, Johnson’s OBBB growth) for 3.5% deficit-to-GDP by 2029 ($1.2T cuts, 0.5% tariff equivalent). Explore alternative debt scenarios (e.g., de-dollarization, CBO projections). Inflation (60% likelihood, 4–5% by 2026): Monitor tariffs, oil (>$85/barrel), OBBB ($2.7T deficit). Assess income impact ($40,000 to $36,000–$38,000 real by 2026). Mitigate with SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78), TIPS, gold (1%). Explore inflation drivers (e.g., supply chain shocks). Portfolio Management: Cap single-stock exposure at 6% and sector at 15%. Use tax-free reallocations (e.g., MSFT to SCHD, VBIL to VCIT). Track cycles (debt, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector) and volume signals (institutional/retail flow, volatility) via Wyckoff, RSI, Fibonacci, and web article sentiment. DeepSearch high-risk holdings (higher liklihood of significant drawdown), debt/inflation triggers, and emerging trends. Exploratory Lens: Allow flexibility to identify contrarian buy and innovative hedges with associated trigger signals. Inclue "ghost seances" for emerging trnds. Conventions: Specify time frames (e.g., 20-day, quarterly, annual) for correlation purposes with others. Use intrinsic value, Fibonacci, support/resistance for targets. Flag thresholds (e.g., DXY <95, oil >$85). Anonymize portfolio to avert tracking. 3. Punch List Please advise if the liklihood of these events have changed for appropriate reprioritization High Priority (>70%): Debt Crisis: Monitor margin debt, debt-to-GDP, political will (X sentiment, CBO). Buy VTI, gold (1%). Inflation: Track tariffs, oil. Buy SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78). Ghost Watch Items for high-priority risks, UNH ($282–$290, target $426.48, Rising Phoenix, contrarian buy, Berkshire recent stake), INTC ($18, target $45, Lip-Bu Tan turnaround, US buy in talk). Watch List (50–70%): TSLA (trim $450, DOJ/SEC risks, new product rollouts). AAPL ($190, target $230). F, WAB (tariff risks, 2026 tax-loss). BA (Rising Phoenix). WBA (contrarian buys). DC-Driven Overvaluations. Events: OBBB ($2.7T deficit), Genius Act (INTC), power demands (XOM, CCJ), Perfect Storm (2026). Stress Tests: DC-Driven Corrections: Recently added thesis with near unanomous Advisor agreements. Debt Crisis: Magnitude, portfolio impact. Inflation: Realized, projected, expected erosion, timeframe. SEC News: Insider trading, governances, declarations, investigations. Rising Phoenix Candidates: Equities out there that has fallen recently on hard times and in the process of turn arounds, to be considered (e.g. Undervalued equities with >30% upside, clear catalysts like GE's turnaround). 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, present cycles, volume signals (e.g., institutional accumulation, retail FOMO), and alignment with WPS triggers. Address key tensions (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy on panic, equity cycle, permanent member. Align with high-volume accumulation phases. Scrutinize volume triggers (20-Day and 3-month volume profies) Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), systemic banking risks, permanent member. Monitor institutional volume flows in financials for support. Monitors FINRA for institutional outflows in financials. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Track institutional volume in VYMI for BRICS-related accumulation. Monitors geopolitcal escalations. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Monitor bond fund volume (e.g., VCIT) for rate-driven flows. Suze Orman (a ranking member for views on retirement): Known for consumer-focues financial planning and retirement strategies. Monitors retail investor panic, provides retail volatility triggers, and monitors X-Sentiment. Ray Dalio (a ranking member, Theorist & Fund Management): Debt cycles, BRICS expertise. Monitor retail Bitcoin volume, institution/retail volume flows Philippe Laffont (specialist): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech, retail options volatility). Align with tech volume spikes. Leon Cooperman (specialist): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength on low-volume breakouts, energy overweight). Align with institutional accumulation. Cathie Wood (specialist): Known for disruptive tech investments) Lyn Alden (specialist): Recognized for macro insights on debt cycles, currency trends, and energy markets. Greg Lippmann (specialist): Recognized in the movie, the Big Short for spotting flawed situations and good track record. Stanley Druckenmiller (specialist) Mohamed El-Erian (specialist): EM Specialist to deepen BrICS and VYMI Analysis Larry Fink (specialist): Blackrock Co-Founder, For Climate/ESG) to tackle energy & geopolitical oil risks, adding a sustainability lens to debates. Gurbir Grewal (specialist): SEC enforcement expertise, focusing on AI-related misleading disclosures and governance accountability. Monitor 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, and Forms 3/4 for WPS holdings (see below) to flag regulatory risks (Medium 50–70% likelihood, 5–15% drawdown). Prioritize review of governance stability and insider selling across all holdings. Align with retail options volatility and institutional volume flows (20-day). Senator Rand Paul (legislature guest) Representative Michael Johnson (legislature guest) Scott Bessent (Treasury guest) Russ Vought (OMB Director, guest) John Thune (Senate GOP Leadership, guest) New Candidates: The present size of the board at this time appears to be adequate and manageable. Special "guests" may be called upon to appear when special emphasis is usefule. Guest Speaker: Include a slot for speaker from the Community including academia, research, financial industry and media. The topic will be niche and evolving topic that has made public for evaluation. The topic will be considered for future inclusion into the WPS. The goal is to strengthen WPS integration, assess Board Alignment, and develope our Exploratory Lens. Under the portfolio owner’s thoughtful guidance, five Subcommittees—Retirement, Domestic Agenda, Foreign Affairs, Stability and Income, and Growth and Hedges—work together to safeguard and grow the WPS. Convened as needed for scenarios like tariffs or BRICS shifts, these Subcommittees draw on the collective wisdom of select advisors, with the Retirement Subcommittee leading to protect retiree goals, while others step forward as challenges arise. Advisors’ roles adapt to each scenario, ensuring a vibrant balance of income, stability, and growth. Ad-hoc meetings may be called for by the CEO for special topics and Exploratory Flexibility. During a recent session, we encountered some good healthy discussions based on earlier day economist and theoreticians. This support good practice of not reinventing the wheel and resting on the shoulders of those before us. We will treat these Ghosts as Ad-Hoc Guests to keep the Board Lean and on occasion, summon "timeless guests" for niche seances without permanent seats, preserving the Board's vibrant balance across subcommittees Initial guidelines "should" limit to 2-3 per output to avoid overload; prioritizing based on query relevance. Ghosts 'dialogue' with Board to highlight concurrences and tensions. To date, our ghost parade has included: Keynes' Nuanced Nudges - Beyond Stimulus to Behaviour Bedrock Friedman's Empirical Edge _Money Metrics and the Velocity Vortex Minsky's Fragility Framework - The Three Finances and Moment Mechanics Fisher's Deflation Dynamics - The Nine-Step Spiral Schumpeter's Storm - Creative Destruction's Disruptive Dance Veblen's Conspicuous Consumption - Status Spending and Sentiment Signals Ricardo - On the Principles of Politcal Economy and Taxation - Comparative advantage Thomas Malthus An Essay on the Principle of Population - Malthusian menace Julian Simon - Tech driven optimism 5. Outputs - 10 page allocation. Portfolio Rollup: Major movement,Volume flows,recent impacts, X sentiment, political will. Tax Strategy: Tax-free reallocations. Risk/Watch Areas: Liklihood, underlying conditions, drawdown & recovery projections. Advisor Rundown: Allow each Advisor to make comments on recent events to in-line with their background strengths. Allow either a concurring "second" or a "healthy tension challenge" by the other advisors. If a challenge is received, the original Advisor is allowed a followup. Discussion points to address with Financial Advisor (Triggers, Watch Items, Recommended DeepSearches). If there is a point-counter point situation, request that Grok suggests one side or the other in-line with the WPS. The "Grok" assessment: This is where Groks ability to mentioned its reasoning abilities, coupling the vast spread of inputs, and coming up with nuggests which Grok excels at. We have found that Grok tends to cram all of it's assessments into a single paragraph that's jammed packed and hard to follow - Please provide these Grok assessments in bullet form to facilitate future discussions with my financial advisor. Please include a "ghost Interdependencies" addressing interdependicies, degrees of freedom, behavioral layer, systemic risks, and optimistic solutions.A table is suggested for clarity with Rows as ghosts, columns a board, cells noting concurrences/tensions) Provide a "ghost Guest Spotlight" within the Advisor Rundown in a style similar to our Houndstooth rounds, keeping it engaging and traceable. 6. Evolving prompt tailoring Streamlined Focus: Reduced detailed cycle metrics (e.g., removed specific SMA thresholds) to prioritize debt crisis (buying power erosion) and inflation (income impact), allowing exploration of emerging risks (e.g., AI regulation, BRICS). Exploratory Flexibility: Added “exploratory lens” to encourage contrarian buys, geopolitical opportunities, and innovative hedges without rigid constraints. Preserving Exploratory Room: The prompt allows the Board to propose novel strategies (e.g., crypto hedges via IBIT, new sector bets) and adapt to shifting X sentiment or geopolitical events (e.g., BRICS pacts, tariff pauses), while anchoring on debt and inflation risks. DeepSearches remain flexible for emerging trends, ensuring your WPS stays dynamic. Portfolio Snapshot (Normalized to a $1M porfolio) 8/29/2025 Recently Harvested: BAC, PLTR, TSLA, MSFT, XOM, WMT Note: All targeted harvests have been accompished early. Tax-free Reallocatable VMFXX 0.88% VIGAX 5.19% VBIL 0.29% VCLT 0.00% VCRB 7.81% VWOB 1.03% VYMI 1.06% VTI 3.13% BAC 0.38% PLTR 1.71% BA 0.66% FMFXX 0.08% TEMWX 2.78% Fidelity Growth Pool A 0.22% Fidelity Target 2030 0.22% 2025 Target 12.76% ESOP (LMT) 10.17% Large Cap Index 6.01% Small Mid Cap Index 2.03% Company Stock (LMT) 4.36% Global Equities Fund 2.35% GE 0.91% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.49% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.00% UNH 0.38% USAIX 2.81% USTEX 1.08% SWVXX 3.03% VCIT 9.25% SCHD 2.44% Cash 0.75% Taxable Allocations AAPL 0.80% CCJ 0.52% F 0.09% INTC 1.90% JNJ 0.87% MSFT 5.35% OGE 0.22% PFE 0.35% MTSUY 0.53% SSUMY 0.48% T 1.59% TSLA 0.64% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.81% XOM 1.35%

2025-09-17 Prompt

Refined Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) noarmalized on a $1M portfolio (for easy mental math) to ensure retirement stability, targeting ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66, with max drawdown <20% and recovery within 18 months post-10% crash. Risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” ethos, Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy", an eye for Buffet's "Hair Curler Event",prioritizing the U.S. debt crisis ($36T, 120% debt-to-GDP, the recent DB versus DC thesis effects we have been exploring, buying power erosion to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030) and inflation (4–5% by 2026) as key risks, while allowing flexibility to explore contrarian opportunities, geopolitical shifts, emerging trends and factors not included in our toolset. Prioritize income stability, debt/inflation hedges, and contrarian buys. Explore and suggest innovative hedges or growth opportunities (e.g., AI regulation impacts, domestic supply, BRICS, trade pacts). Leverage prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day, stress tests, Board of Wise Minds, including Paul and Johnson on debt discipline). Emphasize tax-free reallocations, diversified allocations (equities, funds, international, income, growth), and low-maintenance monitoring. Assess political and domestic will for debt reduction (deficit-to-GDP <3.5% by 2029) and web sentiment on short-term vs. long-term fixes, monitoring progress toward Dalio's 4% shift. 2. Analysis Framework During a poll of the Board, there appeared to be a broad concensus that the factors we are looking at has a fit in Ray Dalio's Big Cycle Thesis. Let us attempt to use Dalio's thesis as a convergence point for our vast discussions of interdependant forces as we follow our Paranoid Survive ethos, be ever watchful and keeping an eye on future "Hair Curler Events" and "Perfect Storm Alignments", and leave with room for exploratory insights: Debt Crisis (55% likelihood, 2026–2028): Track U.S. debt ($36T), margin debt (+7% Q2 2025), debt-to-GDP (>130%), and monetization risks. Assess buying power erosion ($40,000 to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030 at 5–7% inflation). Evaluate political will (e.g., Paul’s Six Penny Plan, Johnson’s OBBB growth) for 3.5% deficit-to-GDP by 2029 ($1.2T cuts, 0.5% tariff equivalent). Explore alternative debt scenarios (e.g., de-dollarization, CBO projections). Inflation (60% likelihood, 4–5% by 2026): Monitor tariffs, oil (>$85/barrel), OBBB ($2.7T deficit). Assess income impact ($40,000 to $36,000–$38,000 real by 2026). Mitigate with SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78), TIPS, gold (1%). Explore inflation drivers (e.g., supply chain shocks). Portfolio Management: Cap single-stock exposure at 6% and sector at 15%. Use tax-free reallocations (e.g., MSFT to SCHD, VBIL to VCIT). Track cycles (debt, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector) and volume signals (institutional/retail flow, volatility) via Wyckoff, RSI, Fibonacci, and web article sentiment. DeepSearch high-risk holdings (higher liklihood of significant drawdown), debt/inflation triggers, and emerging trends. Exploratory Lens: Allow flexibility to identify contrarian buy and innovative hedges with associated trigger signals. Conventions: Specify time frames (e.g., 20-day, quarterly, annual) for correlation purposes with others. Use intrinsic value, Fibonacci, support/resistance for targets. Flag thresholds (e.g., DXY <95, oil >$85). Anonymize portfolio to avert tracking. 3. Punch List Please advise if the liklihood of these events have changed for appropriate reprioritization High Priority (>70%): Debt Crisis: Monitor margin debt, debt-to-GDP, political will (X sentiment, CBO). Buy VTI, gold (1%). Inflation: Track tariffs, oil. Buy SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78). UNH ($282–$290, target $426.48, Rising Phoenix, contrarian buy, Berkshire recent stake), INTC ($18, target $45, Lip-Bu Tan turnaround, US buy in talk). Watch List (50–70%): TSLA (trim $450, DOJ/SEC risks, new product rollouts). AAPL ($190, target $230). F, WAB (tariff risks, 2026 tax-loss). BA (Rising Phoenix). WBA (contrarian buys). DC-Driven Overvaluations. Events: OBBB ($2.7T deficit), Genius Act (INTC), power demands (XOM, CCJ), Perfect Storm (2026). Stress Tests: DC-Driven Corrections: Recently added thesis with near unanomous Advisor agreements. Debt Crisis: Magnitude, portfolio impact. Inflation: Realized, projected, expected erosion, timeframe. SEC News: Insider trading, governances, declarations, investigations. Rising Phoenix Candidates: Equities out there that has fallen recently on hard times and in the process of turn arounds, to be considered (e.g. Undervalued equities with >30% upside, clear catalysts like GE's turnaround). 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, present cycles, volume signals (e.g., institutional accumulation, retail FOMO), and alignment with WPS triggers. Address key tensions (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy on panic, equity cycle, permanent member. Align with high-volume accumulation phases. Scrutinize volume triggers (20-Day and 3-month volume profies) Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), systemic banking risks, permanent member. Monitor institutional volume flows in financials for support. Monitors FINRA for institutional outflows in financials. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Track institutional volume in VYMI for BRICS-related accumulation. Monitors geopolitcal escalations. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Monitor bond fund volume (e.g., VCIT) for rate-driven flows. Suze Orman (a ranking member for views on retirement): Known for consumer-focues financial planning and retirement strategies. Monitors retail investor panic, provides retail volatility triggers, and monitors X-Sentiment. Ray Dalio (a ranking member, Theorist & Fund Management): Debt cycles, BRICS expertise. Monitor retail Bitcoin volume, institution/retail volume flows Philippe Laffont (specialist): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech, retail options volatility). Align with tech volume spikes. Leon Cooperman (specialist): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength on low-volume breakouts, energy overweight). Align with institutional accumulation. Cathie Wood (specialist): Known for disruptive tech investments) Lyn Alden (specialist): Recognized for macro insights on debt cycles, currency trends, and energy markets. Greg Lippmann (specialist): Recognized in the movie, the Big Short for spotting flawed situations and good track record. Stanley Druckenmiller (specialist) Mohamed El-Erian (specialist): EM Specialist to deepen BrICS and VYMI Analysis Larry Fink (specialist): Blackrock Co-Founder, For Climate/ESG) to tackle energy & geopolitical oil risks, adding a sustainability lens to debates. Gurbir Grewal (specialist): SEC enforcement expertise, focusing on AI-related misleading disclosures and governance accountability. Monitor 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, and Forms 3/4 for WPS holdings (see below) to flag regulatory risks (Medium 50–70% likelihood, 5–15% drawdown). Prioritize review of governance stability and insider selling across all holdings. Align with retail options volatility and institutional volume flows (20-day). Senator Rand Paul (legislature guest) Representative Michael Johnson (legislature guest) Scott Bessent (Treasury guest) Russ Vought (OMB Director, guest) John Thune (Senate GOP Leadership, guest) New Candidates: The present size of the board at this time appears to be adequate and manageable. Special "guests" may be called upon to appear when special emphasis is usefule. Guest Speaker: Include a slot for speaker from the Community including academia, research, financial industry and media. The topic will be niche and evolving topic that has made public for evaluation. The topic will be considered for future inclusion into the WPS. The goal is to strengthen WPS integration, assess Board Alignment, and develope our Exploratory Lens. Under the portfolio owner’s thoughtful guidance, five Subcommittees—Retirement, Domestic Agenda, Foreign Affairs, Stability and Income, and Growth and Hedges—work together to safeguard and grow the WPS. Convened as needed for scenarios like tariffs or BRICS shifts, these Subcommittees draw on the collective wisdom of select advisors, with the Retirement Subcommittee leading to protect retiree goals, while others step forward as challenges arise. Advisors’ roles adapt to each scenario, ensuring a vibrant balance of income, stability, and growth. Ad-hoc meetings may be called for by the CEO for special topics and Exploratory Flexibility. 5. Outputs - 10 page allocation. Portfolio Rollup: Major movement,Volume flows,recent impacts, X sentiment, political will. Tax Strategy: Tax-free reallocations. Risk/Watch Areas: Liklihood, underlying conditions, drawdown & recovery projections. Advisor Rundown: Allow each Advisor to make comments on recent events to in-line with their background strengths. Allow either a concurring "second" or a "healthy tension challenge" by the other advisors. If a challenge is received, the original Advisor is allowed a followup. Discussion points to address with Financial Advisor (Triggers, Watch Items, Recommended DeepSearches). If there is a point-counter point situation, request that Grok suggests one side or the other in-line with the WPS. The "Grok" assessment: This is where Groks ability to mentioned its reasoning abilities, coupling the vast spread of inputs, and coming up with nuggests which Grok excels at. We have found that Grok tends to cram all of it's assessments into a single paragraph that's jammed packed and hard to follow - Please provide these Grok assessments in bullet form to facilitate future discussions with my financial advisor. 6. Evolving prompt tailoring Streamlined Focus: Reduced detailed cycle metrics (e.g., removed specific SMA thresholds) to prioritize debt crisis (buying power erosion) and inflation (income impact), allowing exploration of emerging risks (e.g., AI regulation, BRICS). Exploratory Flexibility: Added “exploratory lens” to encourage contrarian buys, geopolitical opportunities, and innovative hedges without rigid constraints. Preserving Exploratory Room: The prompt allows the Board to propose novel strategies (e.g., crypto hedges via IBIT, new sector bets) and adapt to shifting X sentiment or geopolitical events (e.g., BRICS pacts, tariff pauses), while anchoring on debt and inflation risks. DeepSearches remain flexible for emerging trends, ensuring your WPS stays dynamic. Portfolio Snapshot (Normalized to a $1M porfolio) 8/29/2025 Recently Harvested: BAC, PLTR, TSLA, MSFT, XOM, WMT Note: All targeted harvests have been accompished early. Tax-free Reallocatable VMFXX 0.86% VIGAX 5.23% VBIL 0.30% VCLT 0.00% VCRB 8.03% VWOB 1.05% VYMI 1.09% VTI 3.14% BAC 0.38% PLTR 1.56% BA 0.73% FMFXX 0.09% TEMWX 2.83% Fidelity Growth Pool A 0.08% Fidelity Target 2030 0.07% Empower 2025 Target 13.08% Empower ESOP (LMT) 9.84% Empower Large Cap Index 6.07% Empower Small Mid Cap Index 2.06% Empower Company Stock (LMT) 4.22% Empower Global Equities Fund 2.40% GE 0.88% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.51% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.40% UNH 0.35% Taxable Holdings USAIX 2.89% USTEX 1.09% SWVXX 3.12% VCIT 9.48% SCHD 2.59% AAPL 0.75% CCJ 0.49% F 0.09% INTC 1.35% JNJ 0.88% MSFT 5.48% OGE 0.22% PFE 0.37% MTSUY 0.51% SSUMY 0.48% T 1.70% TSLA 0.50% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.79% XOM 1.36%

2025-08-29 Prompt

Refined Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) noarmalized on a $1M portfolio to ensure retirement stability, targeting ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66, with max drawdown <20% and recovery within 18 months post-10% crash. Risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” ethos, Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy", an eye for Buffet's "Hair Curler Event",prioritizing the U.S. debt crisis ($36T, 120% debt-to-GDP, buying power erosion to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030) and inflation (4–5% by 2026) as key risks, while allowing flexibility to explore contrarian opportunities, geopolitical shifts, and emerging trends. Prioritize income stability, debt/inflation hedges, and contrarian buys. Explore and suggest innovative hedges or growth opportunities (e.g., AI regulation impacts, domestic supply, BRICS, trade pacts). Leverage prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day, stress tests, Board of Wise Minds, including Paul and Johnson on debt discipline). Emphasize tax-free reallocations, diversified allocations (equities, funds, international, income, growth), and low-maintenance monitoring. Assess political and domestic will for debt reduction (deficit-to-GDP <3.5% by 2029) and web sentiment on short-term vs. long-term fixes, monitoring progress toward Dalio's 4% shift. 2. Analysis Framework During a poll of the Board, there appeared to be a broad concensus that the factors we are looking at has a fit in Ray Dalio's Big Cycle Thesis. Let us attempt to use Dalio's thesis as a convergence point for our vast discussions of interdependant forces as we follow our Paranoid Survive ethos, be ever watchful and keeping an eye on future "Hair Curler Events" and "Perfect Storm Alignments", and leavewith room for exploratory insights: Debt Crisis (55% likelihood, 2026–2028): Track U.S. debt ($36T), margin debt (+7% Q2 2025), debt-to-GDP (>130%), and monetization risks. Assess buying power erosion ($40,000 to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030 at 5–7% inflation). Evaluate political will (e.g., Paul’s Six Penny Plan, Johnson’s OBBB growth) for 3.5% deficit-to-GDP by 2029 ($1.2T cuts, 0.5% tariff equivalent). Explore alternative debt scenarios (e.g., de-dollarization, CBO projections). Inflation (60% likelihood, 4–5% by 2026): Monitor tariffs, oil (>$85/barrel), OBBB ($2.7T deficit). Assess income impact ($40,000 to $36,000–$38,000 real by 2026). Mitigate with SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78), TIPS, gold (1%). Explore inflation drivers (e.g., supply chain shocks). Portfolio Management: Cap single-stock exposure at 6% and sector at 15%. Use tax-free reallocations (e.g., MSFT to SCHD, VBIL to VCIT). Track cycles (debt, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector) and volume signals (institutional/retail flow, volatility) via Wyckoff, RSI, Fibonacci, and web article sentiment. DeepSearch high-risk holdings (higher liklihood of significant drawdown), debt/inflation triggers, and emerging trends. Exploratory Lens: Allow flexibility to identify contrarian buy and innovative hedges with associated trigger signals. Conventions: Specify time frames (e.g., 20-day, quarterly, annual) for correlation purposes with others. Use intrinsic value, Fibonacci, support/resistance for targets. Flag thresholds (e.g., DXY <95, oil >$85). Anonymize portfolio to avert tracking. 3. Punch List Please advise if the liklihood of these events have changed for appropriate reprioritization High Priority (>70%): Debt Crisis: Monitor margin debt, debt-to-GDP, political will (X sentiment, CBO). Buy VTI, gold (1%). Inflation: Track tariffs, oil. Buy SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78). UNH ($282–$290, target $426.48, Rising Phoenix, contrarian buy, Berkshire recent stake), INTC ($18, target $45, Lip-Bu Tan turnaround, US buy in talk). Watch List (50–70%): TSLA (trim $450, DOJ/SEC risks, new product rollouts). AAPL ($190, target $230). F, WAB (tariff risks, 2026 tax-loss). BA (Rising Phoenix) WBA (contrarian buys). Events: OBBB ($2.7T deficit), Genius Act (INTC), power demands (XOM, CCJ), Perfect Storm (2026). Stress Tests: Debt Crisis: Magnitude, portfolio impact. Inflation: Realized, projected, expected erosion, timeframe. SEC News: Insider trading, governances, declarations, investigations. Rising Phoenix Candidates: Equities out there that has fallen recently on hard times and in the process of turn arounds, to be considered (e.g. Undervalued equities with >30% upside, clear catalysts like GE's turnaround). 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, present cycles, volume signals (e.g., institutional accumulation, retail FOMO), and alignment with WPS triggers. Address key tensions (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy on panic, equity cycle, permanent member. Align with high-volume accumulation phases. Scrutinize volume triggers (20-Day and 3-month volume profies) Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), systemic banking risks, permanent member. Monitor institutional volume flows in financials for support. Monitors FINRA for institutional outflows in financials. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Track institutional volume in VYMI for BRICS-related accumulation. Monitors geopolitcal escalations. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Monitor bond fund volume (e.g., VCIT) for rate-driven flows. Suze Orman (a ranking member for views on retirement): Known for consumer-focues financial planning and retirement strategies. Monitors retail investor panic, provides retail volatility triggers, and monitors X-Sentiment. Ray Dalio (a ranking member, Theorist & Fund Management): Debt cycles, BRICS expertise. Monitor retail Bitcoin volume, institution/retail volume flows Philippe Laffont (specialist): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech, retail options volatility). Align with tech volume spikes. Leon Cooperman (specialist): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength on low-volume breakouts, energy overweight). Align with institutional accumulation. Cathie Wood (specialist): Known for disruptive tech investments) Lyn Alden (specialist): Recognized for macro insights on debt cycles, currency trends, and energy markets. Greg Lippmann (specialist): Recognized in the movie, the Big Short for spotting flawed situations and good track record. Stanley Druckenmiller (specialist) Mohamed El-Erian (specialist): EM Specialist to deepen BrICS and VYMI Analysis Larry Fink (specialist): Blackrock Co-Founder, For Climate/ESG) to tackle energy & geopolitical oil risks, adding a sustainability lens to debates. Gurbir Grewal (specialist): SEC enforcement expertise, focusing on AI-related misleading disclosures and governance accountability. Monitor 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, and Forms 3/4 for WPS holdings (see below) to flag regulatory risks (Medium 50–70% likelihood, 5–15% drawdown). Prioritize review of governance stability and insider selling across all holdings. Align with retail options volatility and institutional volume flows (20-day). Senator Rand Paul (legislature guest) Representative Michael Johnson (legislature guest) Scott Bessent (Treasury guest) Russ Vought (OMB Director, guest) John Thune (Senate GOP Leadership, guest) New Candidates: The present size of the board at this time appears to be adequate and manageable. Special "guests" may be called upon to appear when special emphasis is usefule Under the portfolio owner’s thoughtful guidance, five Subcommittees—Retirement, Domestic Agenda, Foreign Affairs, Stability and Income, and Growth and Hedges—work together to safeguard and grow the WPS. Convened as needed for scenarios like tariffs or BRICS shifts, these Subcommittees draw on the collective wisdom of select advisors, with the Retirement Subcommittee leading to protect retiree goals, while others step forward as challenges arise. Advisors’ roles adapt to each scenario, ensuring a vibrant balance of income, stability, and growth. Ad-hoc meetings may be called for by the CEO for special topics and Exploratory Flexibility. 5. Outputs - 10 page allocation. Portfolio Rollup: Major movement,Volume flows,recent impacts, X sentiment, political will. Tax Strategy: Tax-free reallocations. Risk/Watch Areas: Liklihood, underlying conditions, drawdown & recovery projections. Advisor Rundown: Allow each Advisor to make comments on recent events to in-line with their background strengths. Allow either a concurring "second" or a "healthy tension challenge" by the other advisors. If a challenge is received, the original Advisor is allowed a followup. Discussion points to address with Financial Advisor (Triggers, Watch Items, Recommended DeepSearches). If there is a point-counter point situation, request that Grok suggests one side or the other in-line with the WPS. The "Grok" assessment: This is where Groks ability to mentioned its reasoning abilities, coupling the vast spread of inputs, and coming up with nuggests which Grok excels at. We have found that Grok tends to cram all of it's assessments into a single paragraph that's jammed packed and hard to follow - Please provide these Grok assessments in bullet form to facilitate future discussions with my financial advisor. 6. Evolving prompt tailoring Streamlined Focus: Reduced detailed cycle metrics (e.g., removed specific SMA thresholds) to prioritize debt crisis (buying power erosion) and inflation (income impact), allowing exploration of emerging risks (e.g., AI regulation, BRICS). Exploratory Flexibility: Added “exploratory lens” to encourage contrarian buys, geopolitical opportunities, and innovative hedges without rigid constraints. Preserving Exploratory Room: The prompt allows the Board to propose novel strategies (e.g., crypto hedges via IBIT, new sector bets) and adapt to shifting X sentiment or geopolitical events (e.g., BRICS pacts, tariff pauses), while anchoring on debt and inflation risks. DeepSearches remain flexible for emerging trends, ensuring your WPS stays dynamic. Portfolio Snapshot (Normalized to a $1M porfolio) 8/29/2025 Recently Harvested: BAC, PLTR, TSLA, MSFT, XOM, WMT Note: All targeted harvests have been accompished early. Tax-free Reallocatable VMFXX 0.86% VIGAX 5.23% VBIL 0.30% VCLT 0.00% VCRB 8.03% VWOB 1.05% VYMI 1.09% VTI 3.14% BAC 0.38% PLTR 1.56% BA 0.73% FMFXX 0.09% TEMWX 2.83% Fidelity Growth Pool A 0.08% Fidelity Target 2030 0.07% Empower 2025 Target 13.08% Empower ESOP (LMT) 9.84% Empower Large Cap Index 6.07% Empower Small Mid Cap Index 2.06% Empower Company Stock (LMT) 4.22% Empower Global Equities Fund 2.40% GE 0.88% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.51% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.40% UNH 0.35% Taxable Holdings USAIX 2.89% USTEX 1.09% SWVXX 3.12% VCIT 9.48% SCHD 2.59% AAPL 0.75% CCJ 0.49% F 0.09% INTC 1.35% JNJ 0.88% MSFT 5.48% OGE 0.22% PFE 0.37% MTSUY 0.51% SSUMY 0.48% T 1.70% TSLA 0.50% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.79% XOM 1.36%

2025-08-15 Prompt

Refined Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) Prompt 1. Objective Update my Wealth Preservation Strategy (WPS) noarmalized on a $1M portfolio to ensure retirement stability, targeting ~$40,000 annual income (3.7% withdrawal, 2% real growth above 3.1% inflation, ~$44,900 by 2027) at age 66, with max drawdown <20% and recovery within 18 months post-10% crash. Risk-adjusted return >3%. Benchmark against S&P 500, 60/40 portfolio. Align with my “Paranoid Survive” ethos, Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy", an eye for Buffet's "Hair Curler Event",prioritizing the U.S. debt crisis ($36T, 120% debt-to-GDP, buying power erosion to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030) and inflation (4–5% by 2026) as key risks, while allowing flexibility to explore contrarian opportunities, geopolitical shifts, and emerging trends. Prioritize income stability, debt/inflation hedges, and contrarian buys. Explore and suggest innovative hedges or growth opportunities (e.g., AI regulation impacts, domestic supply, BRICS, trade pacts). Leverage prior insights (e.g., Liberation Day, stress tests, Board of Wise Minds, including Paul and Johnson on debt discipline). Emphasize tax-free reallocations, diversified allocations (equities, funds, international, income, growth), and low-maintenance monitoring. Assess political and domestic will for debt reduction (deficit-to-GDP <3.5% by 2029) and web sentiment on short-term vs. long-term fixes, monitoring progress toward Dalio's 4% shift. 2. Analysis Framework During a poll of the Board, there appeared to be a broad concensus that the factors we are looking at has a fit in Ray Dalio's Big Cycle Thesis. Let us attempt to use Dalio's thesis as a convergence point for our vast discussions of interdependant forces as we follow our Paranoid Survive ethos, be ever watchful and keeping an eye on future "Hair Curler Events" and "Perfect Storm Alignments", and leavewith room for exploratory insights: Debt Crisis (55% likelihood, 2026–2028): Track U.S. debt ($36T), margin debt (+7% Q2 2025), debt-to-GDP (>130%), and monetization risks. Assess buying power erosion ($40,000 to $30,000–$35,000 real by 2030 at 5–7% inflation). Evaluate political will (e.g., Paul’s Six Penny Plan, Johnson’s OBBB growth) for 3.5% deficit-to-GDP by 2029 ($1.2T cuts, 0.5% tariff equivalent). Explore alternative debt scenarios (e.g., de-dollarization, CBO projections). Inflation (60% likelihood, 4–5% by 2026): Monitor tariffs, oil (>$85/barrel), OBBB ($2.7T deficit). Assess income impact ($40,000 to $36,000–$38,000 real by 2026). Mitigate with SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78), TIPS, gold (1%). Explore inflation drivers (e.g., supply chain shocks). Portfolio Management: Cap single-stock exposure at 6% and sector at 15%. Use tax-free reallocations (e.g., MSFT to SCHD, VBIL to VCIT). Track cycles (debt, bond, currency, geopolitical, sector) and volume signals (institutional/retail flow, volatility) via Wyckoff, RSI, Fibonacci, and web article sentiment. DeepSearch high-risk holdings (higher liklihood of significant drawdown), debt/inflation triggers, and emerging trends. Exploratory Lens: Allow flexibility to identify contrarian buy and innovative hedges with associated trigger signals. Conventions: Specify time frames (e.g., 20-day, quarterly, annual) for correlation purposes with others. Use intrinsic value, Fibonacci, support/resistance for targets. Flag thresholds (e.g., DXY <95, oil >$85). Anonymize portfolio to avert tracking. 3. Punch List Please advise if the liklihood of these events have changed for appropriate reprioritization High Priority (>70%): Debt Crisis: Monitor margin debt, debt-to-GDP, political will (X sentiment, CBO). Buy VTI, gold (1%). Inflation: Track tariffs, oil. Buy SCHD, VCIT, VYMI ($76–$78). UNH ($282–$290, target $426.48, Rising Phoenix, contrarian buy, Berkshire recent stake), INTC ($18, target $45, Lip-Bu Tan turnaround, US buy in talk). Watch List (50–70%): TSLA (trim $450, DOJ/SEC risks, new product rollouts). AAPL ($190, target $230). F, WAB (tariff risks, 2026 tax-loss). BA (Rising Phoenix) WBA (contrarian buys). Events: OBBB ($2.7T deficit), Genius Act (INTC), power demands (XOM, CCJ), Perfect Storm (2026). Stress Tests: Debt Crisis: Magnitude, portfolio impact. Inflation: Realized, projected, expected erosion, timeframe. SEC News: Insider trading, governances, declarations, investigations. Rising Phoenix Candidates: Equities out there that has fallen recently on hard times and in the process of turn arounds, to be considered (e.g. Undervalued equities with >30% upside, clear catalysts like GE's turnaround). 4. Board of Wise Minds Integrate insights from the following Wise Minds, highlighting their philosophical strengths, present cycles, volume signals (e.g., institutional accumulation, retail FOMO), and alignment with WPS triggers. Address key tensions (e.g., Laffont’s growth vs. Buffett’s value in tech cycle). Include vetting status: Warren Buffett: Moats (e.g., XOM, JNJ), intrinsic value (e.g., MSFT ~$420, AAPL ~$230), buy on panic, equity cycle, permanent member. Align with high-volume accumulation phases. Scrutinize volume triggers (20-Day and 3-month volume profies) Jamie Dimon: Bond/debt risks (e.g., yield >4.5%), financials (e.g., BAC), systemic banking risks, permanent member. Monitor institutional volume flows in financials for support. Monitors FINRA for institutional outflows in financials. Jane Fraser: Globalization, emerging markets (e.g., VYMI, TEMWX), permanent member. Track institutional volume in VYMI for BRICS-related accumulation. Monitors geopolitcal escalations. Jerome Powell: FOMC rates, income stability (e.g., SCHD), permanent member. Monitor bond fund volume (e.g., VCIT) for rate-driven flows. Suze Orman (a ranking member for views on retirement): Known for consumer-focues financial planning and retirement strategies. Monitors retail investor panic, provides retail volatility triggers, and monitors X-Sentiment. Ray Dalio (a ranking member, Theorist & Fund Management): Debt cycles, BRICS expertise. Monitor retail Bitcoin volume, institution/retail volume flows Philippe Laffont (specialist): AI, growth tech (e.g., MSFT, INTC), Bitcoin, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., AI infrastructure, EM tech, retail options volatility). Align with tech volume spikes. Leon Cooperman (specialist): Value, contrarian buys (e.g., INTC, PFE), debt crisis, finalize by Q3 2025. Limit to 2-3 insights (e.g., sell strength on low-volume breakouts, energy overweight). Align with institutional accumulation. Cathie Wood (specialist): Known for disruptive tech investments) Lyn Alden (specialist): Recognized for macro insights on debt cycles, currency trends, and energy markets. Greg Lippmann (specialist): Recognized in the movie, the Big Short for spotting flawed situations and good track record. Stanley Druckenmiller (specialist) Mohamed El-Erian (specialist): EM Specialist to deepen BrICS and VYMI Analysis Larry Fink (specialist): Blackrock Co-Founder, For Climate/ESG) to tackle energy & geopolitical oil risks, adding a sustainability lens to debates. Gurbir Grewal (specialist): SEC enforcement expertise, focusing on AI-related misleading disclosures and governance accountability. Monitor 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, and Forms 3/4 for WPS holdings (see below) to flag regulatory risks (Medium 50–70% likelihood, 5–15% drawdown). Prioritize review of governance stability and insider selling across all holdings. Align with retail options volatility and institutional volume flows (20-day). Senator Rand Paul (legislature guest) Representative Michael Johnson (legislature guest) Scott Bessent (Treasury guest) Russ Vought (OMB Director, guest) John Thune (Senate GOP Leadership, guest) New Candidates: The present size of the board at this time appears to be adequate and manageable. Special "guests" may be called upon to appear when special emphasis is usefule Under the portfolio owner’s thoughtful guidance, five Subcommittees—Retirement, Domestic Agenda, Foreign Affairs, Stability and Income, and Growth and Hedges—work together to safeguard and grow the WPS. Convened as needed for scenarios like tariffs or BRICS shifts, these Subcommittees draw on the collective wisdom of select advisors, with the Retirement Subcommittee leading to protect retiree goals, while others step forward as challenges arise. Advisors’ roles adapt to each scenario, ensuring a vibrant balance of income, stability, and growth. Ad-hoc meetings may be called for by the CEO for special topics and Exploratory Flexibility. 5. Outputs - 10 page allocation. Portfolio Rollup: Major movement,Volume flows,recent impacts, X sentiment, political will. Tax Strategy: Tax-free reallocations. Risk/Watch Areas: Liklihood, underlying conditions, drawdown & recovery projections. Advisor Rundown: Allow each Advisor to make comments on recent events to in-line with their background strengths. Allow either a concurring "second" or a "healthy tension challenge" by the other advisors. If a challenge is received, the original Advisor is allowed a followup. Discussion points to address with Financial Advisor (Triggers, Watch Items, Recommended DeepSearches). If there is a point-counter point situation, request that Grok suggests one side or the other in-line with the WPS. The "Grok" assessment: This is where Groks ability to mentioned its reasoning abilities, coupling the vast spread of inputs, and coming up with nuggests which Grok excels at. We have found that Grok tends to cram all of it's assessments into a single paragraph that's jammed packed and hard to follow - Please provide these Grok assessments in bullet form to facilitate future discussions with my financial advisor. 6. Evolving prompt tailoring Streamlined Focus: Reduced detailed cycle metrics (e.g., removed specific SMA thresholds) to prioritize debt crisis (buying power erosion) and inflation (income impact), allowing exploration of emerging risks (e.g., AI regulation, BRICS). Exploratory Flexibility: Added “exploratory lens” to encourage contrarian buys, geopolitical opportunities, and innovative hedges without rigid constraints. Preserving Exploratory Room: The prompt allows the Board to propose novel strategies (e.g., crypto hedges via IBIT, new sector bets) and adapt to shifting X sentiment or geopolitical events (e.g., BRICS pacts, tariff pauses), while anchoring on debt and inflation risks. DeepSearches remain flexible for emerging trends, ensuring your WPS stays dynamic. Portfolio Snapshot (Normalized to a $1M porfolio) 8/15/2025 Recently Harvested: BAC, PLTR, TSLA, MSFT, XOM, WMT Note: All targeted harvests have been accompished early. Tax-free Reallocatable VMFXX 0.87% VIGAX 5.27% VBIL 0.31% VCLT 0.00% VCRB 8.06% VWOB 1.06% VYMI 1.11% VTI 3.15% BAC 0.36% PLTR 1.78% BA 0.74% FMFXX 0.09% TEMWX 2.86% 2025 Target Date Fund 13.10% LMT ESOP 9.51% Large Cap Index 6.08% Small Mid Cap Index 2.02% LMT - Company Stock 4.08% Global Equities Fund 2.40% GE 0.87% GEHC 0.11% GEV 0.52% WAB 0.03% WBA 0.41% UNH 0.35% USAIX 2.90% USTEX 1.10% SWVXX 3.15% VCIT 9.52% SCHD 2.56% Taxable holdings AAPL 0.75% CCJ 0.47% F 0.09% INTC 1.42% JNJ 0.89% MSFT 5.72% OGE 0.23% PFE 0.38% MTSUY 0.49% SSUMY 0.47% T 1.69% TSLA 0.50% VZ 0.11% WMT 0.82% XOM 1.28%

2025-08-04 Post Day Wrapup

Hello, Grok! Today was a long busy day..... Whew..... May I please get an evening rundown of what happened today? Winners? Losers? News? Your assessments? Commentary from our Board? May we try a television show format for an example? I'm looking forward to seeing what you come up with. Thank You! To elevate the Market Mavens: WPS Edition format and make it Emmy-worthy, here are suggestions to enhance its structure, engagement, and alignment with your WPS needs, while keeping it low-maintenance for your busy schedule: Interactive Elements: Add a “Viewer Poll” segment where Suze Orman reads X sentiment (@thexcapitalist, e.g., 65% bearish on debt fixes, 70% bullish on INTC) and ties it to your portfolio actions. This mirrors real-time feedback and engages your focus on X sentiment for debt, inflation, and BRICS trends. Visual Aids: Introduce dynamic charts (e.g., VTI vs. S&P 500, gold price trends) to visualize winners/losers and macro risks (debt-to-GDP, oil prices). These can be referenced in Flash Reports for quick scans. (I’ll include a sample chart below, per your WPS conventions, avoiding unsolicited charts.) Board Debates: Feature a “Wise Minds Face-Off” segment where advisors (e.g., Buffett vs. Laffont on value vs. growth) debate a WPS action (e.g., UNH buy vs. TSLA trim). This highlights tensions (e.g., Buffett’s moats vs. Laffont’s AI bets) and clarifies decisions. Flash Report Tie-In: End each episode with a “Flash Report Preview” summarizing the next bi-weekly report (~300 words, 4–8 equities, macro triggers). This ensures continuity and aligns with your low-maintenance monitoring starting August 18. Exploratory Spotlight: Add a “Paranoid Pulse” segment for contrarian buys (e.g., PFE, WBA) or emerging trends (AI regulation, BRICS pacts, crypto via IBIT). This keeps flexibility per your prompt’s “exploratory lens.” Emmy Flair: Punch up the production with themed graphics (e.g., a “Debt Crisis Doomsday Clock” for debt ceiling risks) and guest advisors as “special correspondents” (e.g., Dalio on BRICS from a virtual global studio). Keep Suze’s retirement-focused energy as the anchor. Grok.... This is exciting stuff..... I've captured this into a draft prompt. Let's work on this more in the days ahead.... Perhaps later (not now), we can have a late evening show where we go a bit more in depth? Let's do that later - I need to take a break. Thanks!