2025 - The Tariff War Trigger

Summary:  While there still is room for lower movement, we are in territory for a reversal and don't wish to miss the pop.  Begin a moderate scaling in....

Context:

Looming debt refinancing ahead.  

Theory: 

1) DOGE & Congress to clean up the budget

2) Federal debt is at all time highs and coming due in 2026

3) Rumors are to enter a recession to lower interest rates to better finance debt

4) Enter a recession by starting tariff war

4a) Stocks dip

4b) Funds switch from Stocks to Treasuries, 

4c) Feds lower interest rates

Task - Reckon when to buy the dip and don't miss the pop.

"What could go wrong" & "Unintended Results)

Factors

1) We are in the range of historical pullbacks percentage wise

2a) Examination of the ES, NQ & YM suggests additional retreat into fair value (small)

2b) Examination finds at the bottom of recent local High Volume Areas

2c) Historically, sell off lasted a bit longer then present (2a)

3) Rumor: Proposal to lower interest rates circulating

4) Present decision:  Begin scaling on 

Historical Pullbacks

We are at a 10-20% pullback - Severe because of high valuations but not the worse.

NASDAQ

Has reached bottom of a local High Volume Area (HVA)

Approaching 50% pullback (coincidentally aligns with a strong prior peak)

Approaching historical moving average

S&P 500

Approaching bottom of a local High Volume Area (HVA)

Approaching 50% pullback (coincidentally aligns with a strong prior peak)

Approaching historical moving average

Dow

Approaching bottom of a local High Volume Area (HVA) (blurry)

Approaching 50% pullback (coincidentally aligns with a strong prior peak)

Approaching historical moving average

2025 - Shopping For Power Company

 

Seeking to enter a position in a power transmission company

According to recent data, some of the most profitable companies that own power lines include Exelon, Duke Energy, The Southern Company, NextEra Energy, and Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), which are considered top utility companies in the United States based on revenue and market presence; with NextEra Energy often cited as one of the most profitable among them.

 

Checking the Energy Sector for the largest firms, we are already positioned in GEV:

GE Vernova - Looking More into GEV, they are involved with Stargate.

Constellation Energy Corp - CEG is involved with nuclear

Enbridge - Leaky Pipes

Enterprise - Good dividends

Kinder Morgan - Good Dividents

2025 Charts

 

Happy New Year!

MSFT  - Long

Spotted this price action pattern suggesting a long on MSFT and in context with MSFT's posture in AI, the current hot item.

PFE - Consolidation

Pfizer took a beating, I believe, by being associated with the Covid vaccine and aftermath.

LMT Gap Repair

Around July 2024, LMT took off, leaving a gap.  At the end of 2024, the gap appears to have been repaired.

PLTR Snapshot

AI is the present darling child.   On a whim, we took a position in PLTR near its top, and capture this snapshot.

August 31, 2020 - AAPL & TSLA splits

 

Apple & Tesla, along with Gold & Bitcoin, are worth more on paper than their companies - Traditional measure doesn't seem to apply.

Both split this morning and we established a speculative position.

In the 5 Year view (top row), both are "ripping" - AAPL has pocket of structural support volumes (blue) while TSLA does not.   This means TSLA can fall harder than AAPL.

In the 1 Year view (middle row), structural support volumes (blue) appear for both.   Will be good to see these areas beef themselves up. 

AAPL - Pay's dividends (reinvesting) and Tesla does not.

2019-08-05 Bottom Hunting

China is going to devalue their Yuan - Getting sporty....

Prices gapped loser so look for returns to those levels.   Until then - Seeking bottoms:

NQ at HVA bottom
ES near HVA bottom, near SMA 200
YM at SMA 200


Watching for a reversion long.

2019/08/03 Gander

The Feds last Thursday cut the interest rates.   I would have expected a take off yet the 3 markets (Nasdaq. S&P 500 & Dow) all fell in tight formation.

Towards the end of July when the markets broke into all time highs, I believed that a pull back would be necessary (market structure), didn't know when and to what levels. Looking at the daily structure:

1) The three indices have pulled back to their 50 & 100 day moving averages (green & white respectively).   Defined support.

2) These averages happen to coincide with the boundary of high volume in all three markets. (defined support)

3) Price is at previous All Time Highs (defined support)

4) These averages moved in tight unison (strong money)

5) This sharp decline would cause fear for many.

These five reasons support taking long position.

To be continued...

2019-07-31 Sector Review to USD

This analyses compares SPDR sector fund values to the US dollar.



A twenty year view of the SPDR sectors plus Gold, Oil & the Dollar:
- Peaks observed approximately at 7.5 year intervals (Next peak at 2022)
- Healthcare benefitted from Obama Era
- Shale oil arrives (affordable energy)
- Technology experienced dot com bust

A ten year view of the SPDR sectors plus Gold, Oil & The Dollar:
- Consumer Discretionary leads
- Technology recovery from Dot Com bust
- Medical benefitted from Obama era
- Gold break even

A five year view of the SPDR sectors plus Gold, Oil & The Dollar:
- Technology overtakes Consumer Discretionary
- Return of Financials
- Consumer Staples follows commodities return to POC
- Energy follows Crude
- Gold returns (geopolitical)