2025 - The Tariff War Trigger

Summary:  While there still is room for lower movement, we are in territory for a reversal and don't wish to miss the pop.  Begin a moderate scaling in....

Context:

Looming debt refinancing ahead.  

Theory: 

1) DOGE & Congress to clean up the budget

2) Federal debt is at all time highs and coming due in 2026

3) Rumors are to enter a recession to lower interest rates to better finance debt

4) Enter a recession by starting tariff war

4a) Stocks dip

4b) Funds switch from Stocks to Treasuries, 

4c) Feds lower interest rates

Task - Reckon when to buy the dip and don't miss the pop.

"What could go wrong" & "Unintended Results)

Factors

1) We are in the range of historical pullbacks percentage wise

2a) Examination of the ES, NQ & YM suggests additional retreat into fair value (small)

2b) Examination finds at the bottom of recent local High Volume Areas

2c) Historically, sell off lasted a bit longer then present (2a)

3) Rumor: Proposal to lower interest rates circulating

4) Present decision:  Begin scaling on 

Historical Pullbacks

We are at a 10-20% pullback - Severe because of high valuations but not the worse.

NASDAQ

Has reached bottom of a local High Volume Area (HVA)

Approaching 50% pullback (coincidentally aligns with a strong prior peak)

Approaching historical moving average

S&P 500

Approaching bottom of a local High Volume Area (HVA)

Approaching 50% pullback (coincidentally aligns with a strong prior peak)

Approaching historical moving average

Dow

Approaching bottom of a local High Volume Area (HVA) (blurry)

Approaching 50% pullback (coincidentally aligns with a strong prior peak)

Approaching historical moving average