Thursday Review

Summary:

• (bull) ES presented an inside range day w/ higher POC
• (bull) YM & NQ presented higher POC/LOD/HOD
• (watch) GC is consolidating between demonstrated resistance and trendline long
• (watch) NG is demonstrating a bottom and possible flip w/ new contract ahead
• (watch) CL supported with a rising trendline, failed to break higher, and regrouping
• (watch) CL is developing it's new contract with three initial High volume prices

Gold Review

Long Term Monthly Gold
- See illustrations
- We are packing it in pretty tight in the big picture
- Bearish SMA50 & VWAP
- Demonstrated support at 20 year value area bottom



Long Term Daily Gold
- We are in the vicinity of the 20, 5 & 1 year Points of Control
- Presently, we have resistance stemming from an October swing low
- Price appears to be "jamming" against this resistance level
- Targets identified if we break out long
- See illustration



Intermediate Term (4 hour) Gold
- Targets better identified if we breakout above last October's swing low
- We appear to possibly be putting in a top at last October's swing low.



Short Term Gold
- Watch for intraday trades accordingly

Energy Review

The OPEC oil agreement has been holding oil tight.

Daily SMA formations are bullish

Watch for breakout long





The Intermediate view conflicting
- (Bull signal) Trend long is showing repeated tests into Resistance at $54
- (Bull signal) Reactions off $54 Resistance are becoming less pronounced
- Breakout above $54 would Target $55 and then the Price band level at $61
- (Bear signal) Examination shows a declining Trade Volume Index yet consolidating price



Ruling Reason:
1) Long is the dominate trend
2) Watch for breakout above $54 with $55 target
3) Watch for OPEC meeting in May
4) Watch the daily supply/demand bases for intraday targets

Taylor Fail

Linda Bradford Raschke mentioned in one of her lectures, to make an educated guess where the market would go the following day - You'll know immediately when you're wrong.   James Dalton would say to have scenarios for long/neutral/short on hand.....

Today, my trend forecasts fell apart on Gold, Oil & Natural Gas - A broader examination is warranted...

Natural Gas

• Did not continue it’s trend short as expected
• NG was forming a barnacle island lower yesterday
• Trapped buying wicks were revisited allowing plenty of time for trapped buyers to cover
• Price returned long to the Contract POC!!!!
• A zoom out performed
• Reacted to a supply/demand level beyond two contracts ago!!!
• Outside supply/demand bases brought into the picture

Oil

• Seasonal rally clearly failed today
• Price probed lower, taking out long stops
• Volume showing deliberate selloff
• Psychological historical levels identified for go low scenarios

Gold

• At an important level
• (Bullish) Could revisit historical key S/R Levels with the trend
• (Neutral) Could fill in LVA
• (Bearish) Could return to composite POCs

February COT Review

Last week, the equities hit all time highs.   An examination of the Commitment of Traders is performed:

Spring Cleaning

Been absorbing new methods and streamlining the workflow greatly improving understanding an efficiency (not sure how well the graphics will expand in the actual blog)

So we are heading into February, which is one of the weakest months for the Dollar and the strongest month for Oil during the past 10 years.

Summary:

4 Hour Action:

• Gold putting in a triple top and expanding triangle
• Precarious gaps observed in the Equities MP structures
• Natural Gas putting in a midstream “M” - watch for breakout!
• Crude happily in range, watch for February breakout

30 Minute Action:

• GC is clearly inverse of Equities (confluence)

• YM & ES clearly returned to basecamp
• NQ stair stepping higher
• NG Taylor series suggests long tomorrow
• CL in range
• GC creating a triple top on Fib 50
• GC possibly putting in an expanding wedge
• 
  

Trade Review:

• Starting new ledger

Carry Over Conclusions & Today’s Ruling Reason:

• Meeting tomorrow morning - No trading
• Stay safe, FOMC is meeting
• Stay safe, Trump news continues
• Revisit possible pull back levels

Trump's Wall

Summary:

The equities, all on the proper side of their respective Composite POC’s made a move in formation to all time highs.   The move was grinding methodical and the POC & Settle were at the top.   We have a solid base with Trump’s Wall to stairstep higher.

Speaking of Trump’s Wall, the POTUS announced going ahead with the wall.   XLB did well today taking the Dow with it.   The Dow also took along the S&P (understandably)  and the Nasdaq (for some reason).   To finance the move, Gold prices fell $2/ounce today.

Oil is happily going nowhere building value in this current contract at prior contract levels.   Natural gas is moving in iRobot fashion

.

High correlation with the equities & gold...

Had a killer gold trade reading the dailies, the fibs, and the signals…

• Contract Fibs said pullback possible
• Double tops put in a 50% fib followed by a lower swing
• Confirmation retest made before liquidation started
• Liquidation went all night
• I believe the proceeds were used to buy up equities (confirm with next week’s COT)

Carry Over Conclusions & Today’s Ruling Reason

• Today’s volume climb was done on relatively nominal overall volume
• (yesterday was when all the heavy buying took place, probably burned through supply)

• Overnight globex appears to be continuing the runup.
• Attempt equity entry with a large trail at correct pullback level (need more alarms)
• Consider Gann
• Consider big move for the week is done and commence target trading