Hunkering in...

Today, I took the day off to tend to some family matters.   The following is a post day review of some of what went down.

On the big picture front, Trump is continuing to pick out his cabinet and pundits are making forecasts....

MP ACTION

• NQ IS DEMONSTRATING A RELUCTANCE TO REMAIN IN THE SWAMP
• YET NQ IS DEMONSTRATING THE BARNACLE ISLAND AS HEAVY RESISTANCE
• ES IS APPEARING TO FILL IN THE LVA BETWEEN POC #3 & #4

ES SPENT THE DAY FILLING IN THE NARROW LVA BETWEEN POC #3 & POC #4

NQ SPENT THE ENTIRE DAY FILLING IN THE LVA BENEATH THE BARNACLE ISLAND POC

VOLUME ACTION

• EOD VOLUME AT PRE ELECTION LEVELS

VOLUME ACTION - 10 DAY OBV SHOWS INCREASING LONG POSITIONS

PRICE ACTION

• (BREAKOUT ALERT) ES INSIDE ACTION
• (BREAKOUT ALERT) NQ STAIRSTEPS ONE LEVEL HIGH

I believe we are in a hunkering in period

Commitment of Traders

ES

• Fascinating….   Entering into the elections, practically everybody was flat
• Immediately after the elections, Asset Managers Bought and the Dealers unloaded

NQ

• Large speculators continuing to go long
• Dealers continually selling (towards the top)

Election Plus 3 Days

A few days ago, I commented on likely spots on where price would hunker in. The elections came this past week . The Big Money operators were able to move to markets some incredible distance, yet wind up essentially where it started...

By making observations on price action, we are becoming better at identifying price targets.

Friday's MP Action

• NQ dutifully set about filling in the LVA swamp today…

• ES set about hovering at POC #3

MP Action for both:  Inside days…  (Research three point triangle breakout)

Friday Price Action

• Inside days for ES & NQ
• NQ settle 4742, POC, globex POC very  close to  and prior day POC & settle
• ES traded around Settle (-2 days) and at the 1 year POC #3
• ALSO SEE
• -- MINIMAL NQ OBV IMPROVEMENT
• -- NET ZERO ES OBV MOVEMENT

• ES HAS PUT IN A TWO DAY DOUBLE BOTTOM WITH A DESCENDING UPPER TREND LINE
• WATCH FOR BREAK OUT SHORT

Volume Action

• EOD volume lower than Day -1 & Day -2
• Yet very good volume to wrap up the week
• It'll be interesting to see next Tuesday's COT report.

SECTOR ACTION

• XLF XLI & XLY LEAD THE DAY
• XLP, XLV & XLK LAGGED THE DAY
• 

PRIOR DAY TRADE REVIEW:

-I left the Bot running in SIM Mode

-Moves appears fairly honest

-Congested FT floor/ceiling trading possible with help from robot

Summary: By moving during the overnight, Big Money traders were able to move the market considerably during the Election. Yet price essentially went nowhere - Perhaps not good for long term investors but yet presented intraday traders several good opportunities.

To be continued...

Election Night 2016

I was in Jury Duty Today, the day after election night;

Here is some of what went down Election Night and The Day After -Summary:

• The methodical liquidation Tuesday night jived with Trump winning the central US
• Despite the tremendous flush and missing the SMA 200, price returned into the trend today
• The overall volume change during the Tuesday Zig/Zag was close to net Zero
• Overall buyers joined the fun today with price essentially moving nowhere

Daily View

• The ES is showing confused consolidation
• Technically, the NQ looks like it should bounce long
• The limit lock down kicked in on the NQ short of price reaching it’s daily SMA 200
• I believe the SMA 200 or the limit was the lower price target in the mind of big money

MP Action ES

• Election night Globex not shown for clarity
• After FBI had cleared the Weiner e-mails last week, ES rallied to the defined HVP

• The three day trend has been long, however this price might be an ideal hold location

MP Action

• ES price has returned into a trading range last visited 21 days ago

MP Action NQ

• Globex not shown for clarity

• NQ has returned to the north side of the Barnacle Island Point of Control
• The three day trend is long, however, this would be a possible hold point.

Volume

• Today’s overall volume was 200% of daily average (!!!)

VOLUME Action

• The election night zig/zag was accomplished with essentially net zero volume difference
• The election night globex session had roughly the same participation as a daily session.   With fewer present to protest, price was able to move quite freely
• Whoever was the operator behind the election  night zig/zag made lots of money
• Today, the OBV buying increase (outsiders joining in) - Yet with little price lift
• Trend is intermediate term low-high
• 
  

Tuesday DAY'S Price Action

• Price clearly rallied out of the swamp into popular price range
• It's my opinion that this is the "home base" from which price will either fall or rally

ES has returned to it popular trading level

Nasdaq has returned to it's popular trading level

Price Action

• NQ Settled at 90 Day POC
• ES Settled back in the Bridge
• Good HVA Respect / Congested HVA structure

PRIOR DAY TRADE REVIEW:

Two Entries spotted:

• Head & Shoulders top
• SMA crossover

Get Set....

Friday, the ES daily touched SMA 200 and NQ daily touched SMA 100.   This last occurred during Brexit and afterwards… Perhaps this was the script CINC gave to Yellen to give to the big money people...

ES reaches SMA 200 and NQ reaches SMA 100

Also, as discussed yesterday,the NQ was 1-3 days from testing it’s contract low.   Today, the NQ was was able to test the pit session contract lows and requires another 30 points to test the contract low with globex.

Because that was a globex event (Brexit), I don’t know if we will reach that level or not.   Nonetheless, it’s about a day away.

NQ Pit session matches Pit Session Contract Low

The Globex session contract low is another 30 points lower...

MP Action

• ES appears to have put in a double bottom after 8 days of decline
• NQ appears to have put in a sloppy double bottom also

Price Action

• ES HOD was a simple test of yesterday’s POC & Pivot

• ES LOD matched yesterday’s LOD and near Globex Low
• ES LOD was at the SMA 200 on the daily

• NQ HOD was at daily Pivot & HVA Edge & Yesterday’s VA
• NQ LOD was at S1 (TA)
• NQ LOD was at the SMA 100 on the daily

Takeaway, just in time for an election day rally???

Volume action

• Inspecting the OBV finds accumulation during the 1st half of the day,
• Markup beginning around 1000
• Liquidation takes place after energies closes
• Large Lot Trading reflect the above price action
• This appears to be a very clever move put into today's script, transacting high than average volume and essentially moving little...

Summary - I believe we are in position for the elections.   Where do we go from here, who knows....